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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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1 hour ago, STE1490 said:

I wish it was around 10pm would of been an great lightning show

I wish it was this time last week,  thing were beginning to gear up for a storm of a lifetime.  Sigh.

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Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

Posted Images

14 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

 

Quite potentially a supercell, given how it exploded immensely over us with constant thunder and a switch in wind direction from SE to NW. If I wasn’t busy, I would’ve chased it. It looked like a very organised muiticell storm as a conservative guess. Amazing what storms can be achieved if you’re handed all the ingredients on a plate, instead of a tonne of CAPE, but little windshear, moisture and other dynamics. You would have never looked at the charts today and gone wow, put it that way! 

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Finally managed to fly today, after the storms. Not with thankfully, too risky with such a low cloud base and embedded cells.  Here lies the Northolt/Heathrow cell, I think there was two tracking NNE.  Gave a rumble of thunder not long after this picture.

20200818_140015.thumb.jpg.cedf3a72993fe58e767342bb2084df6e.jpg

Very interesting structure to it, once cell that didn't really spread it's anvil; the other however........

20200818_142633.thumb.jpg.a12ccf0abfbe87a5f9dea4ff57dc14c0.jpg

20200818_145006.thumb.jpg.e5ba1e65d9de3c6c8be5b0163ac1f195.jpg

Look at the length of that cloud top....

20200818_145014.thumb.jpg.b28c28b16b097477da4834718df4de1c.jpg

I saw a decent size cell over France, but picture didn't do it justice. So I managed to get that cell show up on the stormscope and get a visual of it flying back to London via Southend.

20200818_184827.thumb.jpg.290d22d3a28fee12127996535116ca82.jpg

 

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I had another sneaky nip out of work again today around 4-ish as i noticed that it was getting dark and i could see as big black cloud to the north through the bay door

look at this monster,any reports of thunder around that time up here?

IMG_0173.thumb.JPG.516aa444e7da6287ad6369d46c2f36ca.JPGIMG_0174.thumb.JPG.3414930f1eb3e81971614e50973195c4.JPG

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9 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Finally managed to fly today, after the storms. Not with thankfully, too risky with such a low cloud base and embedded cells.  Here lies the Northolt/Heathrow cell, I think there was two tracking NNE.  Gave a rumble of thunder not long after this picture.

20200818_140015.thumb.jpg.cedf3a72993fe58e767342bb2084df6e.jpg

Very interesting structure to it, once cell that didn't really spread it's anvil; the other however........

20200818_142633.thumb.jpg.a12ccf0abfbe87a5f9dea4ff57dc14c0.jpg

20200818_145006.thumb.jpg.e5ba1e65d9de3c6c8be5b0163ac1f195.jpg

Look at the length of that cloud top....

20200818_145014.thumb.jpg.b28c28b16b097477da4834718df4de1c.jpg

I saw a decent size cell over France, but picture didn't do it justice. So I managed to get that cell show up on the stormscope and get a visual of it flying back to London via Southend.

20200818_184827.thumb.jpg.290d22d3a28fee12127996535116ca82.jpg

 

For a moment I thought it was the new flight simulator 😅

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54 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

For a moment I thought it was the new flight simulator 😅

Anyone here purchased it yet? The weather effects look great from what I've seen. Not perfect for OCD weather fanatics like me, (the lightning bolts seem to linger too long), but probably as good as you're going to get in a simulation/game. I'm actually looking into building a gaming PC just to play it. Virtual storm chasing in a plane!

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1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Anyone here purchased it yet? The weather effects look great from what I've seen. Not perfect for OCD weather fanatics like me, (the lightning bolts seem to linger too long), but probably as good as you're going to get in a simulation/game. I'm actually looking into building a gaming PC just to play it. Virtual storm chasing in a plane!

Was going to download the Standard version yesterday as it is free with Game Pass but 127GB on a mediocre PC that I have, just to find it will not run smoothly?

Like you say a Gaming PC or high end PC is probably best for it to take full advantage of the in game effects/graphics/weather effects set to high quality

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2 hours ago, Lance M said:

Anyone here purchased it yet? The weather effects look great from what I've seen. Not perfect for OCD weather fanatics like me, (the lightning bolts seem to linger too long), but probably as good as you're going to get in a simulation/game. I'm actually looking into building a gaming PC just to play it. Virtual storm chasing in a plane!

Yup!! Weather effects are absolutely fantastic. The clouds look unreal definitely recommend it.

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image.thumb.png.f2c22d1870c0bb27aa56130a7a194d25.png
Severe over Ireland and into SW England and Wales

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 Aug 2020 

ISSUED 06:25 UTC Thu 20 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave upper trough to the west of Ireland, providing a strong southwesterly flow aloft across Britain and Ireland through Thursday. A sharp trough axis will swing northeastwards from the Southwest Approaches during the evening and night hours, providing the focus for more widespread strongly forced convection.

The close vicinity of the longwave upper trough will result in marked cooling in the mid-levels, atop reasonably warm/moist low-level airmass (2m temperatures in the high teens with mid-teens dewpoints). Diurnal heating will lead to increasing instability over Ireland, yielding up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE. This will build in an environment with at least 30-40kts bulk shear, arguably some of the best CAPE/shear overlap experienced so far this year. Ireland will be placed beneath the left exit of the strong jet aloft, creating broad divergence/lift. A cold front will slide erratically northeastwards across Ireland through the day, but it is unclear how widespread any frontal rain may be with this feature - with potential for a wave or closed low to develop along the front and push a more widespread area of rain northwards during the afternoon. Either way, there is scope for deep convection to develop in places, bringing the risk of some scattered thunderstorms. The strongly-sheared profiles and magnitude of CAPE suggests that convection may become organised into line segments, and possibly some supercells. These may be capable of producing marginally-severe hail, up to 2-3cm in diameter, and strong gusts of wind. Fairly low cloud bases, some backing of the low-level winds and 30-40kts 0-1km shear suggests potential for isolated tornadoes.

 

During the evening hours, the approaching sharp trough will be associated with an impressively strong low-level jet (LLJ). Strongly-forced deep convection is likely to evolve in the vicinity of the cold front, affecting S / SE Ireland, the Irish Sea into SW England, W Wales, and perhaps also the Isle of Man and SW Scotland. Consequently, an increase in lightning activity is likely during the evening hours across Celtic Sea / Irish Sea and adjacent landmasses, and this convection brings the threat of damaging gusts of wind 60-70mph (locally 80mph), and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes too. Further waves of deep convection could evolve overnight behind the cold front, ahead/near another small low pressure centre approaching SW Ireland during the early hours. A SVR has been introduced for the threat of locally damaging gusts of wind and isolated tornadoes, and to a lesser-extent for marginally-severe hail.

 

Elsewhere, a plume of high Theta-W will linger across much of the near Continent to the southern North Sea through this forecast period, in close proximity to coastal parts of East Anglia and SE England. It is possible some elevated shower/thunderstorm activity could develop in this area at times, more especially on Thursday evening as the aforementioned trough axis swings through and engages this plume. The risk appears greater offshore over the North Sea, but worth monitoring. 

 

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I'm in the little sausage of nothing-ness in that Convective Weather outlook. Nothing unusual there, but @Zak M also being in it IS unusual

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17 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

My take on today

Screenshot_20200820_114101_com.android.chrome.jpg

Yep I agree tonight's elevated stuff will miss to my east, as normal this year lol. 

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