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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    So now that this week's events are over, I wonder if it's too late to squeeze out a proper plume event (proper as in with a cold front advancing form the west, widespread elevated thunderstorms initiating in the channel and advancing northwards effecting large areas of the country overnight) in the rest of the season. I would say such plumes are technically possible well into September.

    I know one is very unlikely, so this post is hopeful waffle, but I'm trying to cling onto any hope that I don't now have to wait until late April 2021 for plumes to be possible again, because that would *really* suck after there not being one this summer!

    Basically, I'm still waiting for a July 2017-style event to rock up again, that one was the perfect plume.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
    18 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

    Thanks. I’m just doing the basic free course ‘watching the weather’ as I type lol

    Same 😄 

    _______

     

    That little low over Central London is really tight, wonder if there's any funnel clouds going on there. 😛 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    16 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    So now that this week's events are over, I wonder if it's too late to squeeze out a proper plume event (proper as in with a cold front advancing form the west, widespread elevated thunderstorms initiating in the channel and advancing northwards effecting large areas of the country overnight) in the rest of the season. I would say such plumes are technically possible well into September.

    I know one is very unlikely, so this post is hopeful waffle, but I'm trying to cling onto any hope that I don't now have to wait until late April 2021 for plumes to be possible again, because that would *really* suck after there not being one this summer!

    Basically, I'm still waiting for a July 2017-style event to rock up again, that one was the perfect plume.

    It’s possible, but needs a fair whack of luck at this late stage.

    HOWEVER... this year doesn’t seem to have followed the usual trends at all. For this reason I think things *could* fall in our favour, with a very warm channel set up as we head into the Autumn months.

    I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of the heat, especially in the south. I really don’t think those in the north have fully experienced the heat and humidity we’ve had down in these parts in recent weeks. They may think they have, but it’s been intense and relentless, with the feeling of walking towards an open oven door when you step outside or near a window.

    We've also been relentlessly unlucky when it’s come to the steering flow and the movement of synoptic features. I think it’s almost inevitable that at some point before this summer/autumn is over that things will fall into place, if only because of the nature of probability itself.

    I’m certain that the excessive heat didn’t help us last week. The storms were so elevated they didn’t serve much of a purpose visually during the day. Again, we were just unlucky that these didn’t affect us during the evening hours.

    I’m kind of keen to go back to more ‘normal’ weather for the coming week. It’s exhausting being on standby each day waiting to see where the activity will break out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Anything for a good bargain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Looking good for the SE tomorrow :oldgood:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    16 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    It’s possible, but needs a fair whack of luck at this late stage.

    HOWEVER... this year doesn’t seem to have followed the usual trends at all. For this reason I think things *could* fall in our favour, with a very warm channel set up as we head into the Autumn months.

    I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of the heat, especially in the south. I really don’t think those in the north have fully experienced the heat and humidity we’ve had down in these parts in recent weeks. They may think they have, but it’s been intense and relentless, with the feeling of walking towards an open oven door when you step outside or near a window.

    We've also been relentlessly unlucky when it’s come to the steering flow and the movement of synoptic features. I think it’s almost inevitable that at some point before this summer/autumn is over that things will fall into place, if only because of the nature of probability itself.

    I’m certain that the excessive heat didn’t help us last week. The storms were so elevated they didn’t serve much of a purpose visually during the day. Again, we were just unlucky that these didn’t affect us during the evening hours.

    I’m kind of keen to go back to more ‘normal’ weather for the coming week. It’s exhausting being on standby each day waiting to see where the activity will break out.

    I'm not sure we can totally write off this current spell just yet? A couple of days of detritus but we  see warmer and mugger air again tomorrow with more chance of sunshine breaking through,holds true for  Monday too.

    Might be hope casting a little, but areas of interest coming up from a more Southerly angle of attack in the next 48hrs.

    Edited by sunnijim
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Gonna say #nochance to this from AROME:

    eYCbxX10OS.thumb.gif.480715b0cdfa57bb36fa52f043cd8288.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

     

    11 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

    Gonna say #nochance to this from AROME:

    eYCbxX10OS.thumb.gif.480715b0cdfa57bb36fa52f043cd8288.gif

    Almost laughable how the SOR kills any convection as it arrives into the south coast only for it to then breakout just in land. 

    Bound to be correct as AROME is only wrong when forecasting storms for here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    This has more chance of happening than anything else. Usual areas, usual storms.

    not exactly the usual places much more focus on East Anglia / East Midlands for heaviest rainfall taking that run at face value also ties in with where met office expect the heaviest rainfall to be again taking their warning at face value but I've see these before then on the day the reality doesn't match up , for those wanting storms best to approach tomorrow with expect nothing and hope for something , as for me I hope for nothing and expect something

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    34 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Looking good for the SE tomorrow :oldgood:

     

    hmm with been a front could a lot of cloud be a possibility too

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

    Looks at radar, looks outside.... looks at radar again.....

     

    THE RAIN IS A LIE!!!!!!!

    There is physically 4 drops of water on the car roof... 😭

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    North West England , Midlands and Wales have done quite well for storms this year,  much better than than the south east actually , which is not the norm 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    2 minutes ago, IanR said:

    North West England , Midlands and Wales have done quite well for storms this year,  much better than than the south east actually , which is not the norm 

    with me been a hater of them that's a compliment I could do without LOL but yeah it's true happened in June and again week just gone

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    Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
    1 hour ago, Electricmumma said:

    Sorry that was me melting into the atmosphere.. 

    I’m watching too, but to be honest all I’m seeing every time I look at the radar is this 💀 guess it would help if i understood things a lot better. 
     

    time to find an online course in ‘weather’

    Lol! I know the feeling with this recent heat!  It's very humid here now.

    But...I don't think I'm going to see any storms. That line vanished. Maybe tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    14 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    not exactly the usual places much more focus on East Anglia / East Midlands for heaviest rainfall taking that run at face value also ties in with where met office expect the heaviest rainfall to be again taking their warning at face value but I've see these before then on the day the reality doesn't match up , for those wanting storms best to approach tomorrow with expect nothing and hope for something , as for me I hope for nothing and expect something

    I am expecting nothing. I expected nothing today. Right now I am partying because I WAS RIGHT!!! 🕺🔥 🎉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

    Hmmm... we may have the remnants of a Tropical Storm (Kyle) heading our way next week.  That could make things interesting again. 😛 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    11 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

    Hmmm... we may have the remnants of a Tropical Storm (Kyle) heading our way next week.  That could make things interesting again. 😛 

    You may as well ask a turtle to predict the weather than looking at details more than 12hrs away 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill
  • Location: Bexhill
    3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    You may as well ask a turtle to predict the weather than looking at details more than 12hrs away 😅

    *checks with the turtles*

    they said they’d get back to me.. but not to wait up

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