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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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17 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Okay so don’t really care if this sounds ‘moany’ - but now it’s all done and dusted I can say with all my heart that I can’t remember another time in my life that forecasts have got it so wrong for this area.

I know people are going to say one of the following:

• ... these things are hard to predict!

• ... many places were affected by storms so the forecasts were spot on!

Well, let me tell you that it’s now been 7 days and from a broad imby perspective, it’s 7 days of WAY OFF forecasts for this area.

I judge a forecast to be a warning about weather - and not a guide for storm/wind/snow chasers - and in that regard I would expect it to tell people to expect severe or inclement weather.

For 7 days we’ve actually had pretty benign weather. Yes - very hot - but it’s barely done anything other than the odd shower. We had ‘storms’ on one day, but these were rumbling fair-weather clouds until they departed our area. Then (as usual) they became more significant as they moved away.

I can’t blame anyone, but if the forecasts are consistently this way out why bother with the computing power and the time and effort? Or at least look at what we need to do to better the system. I’m just aghast at how many days on the trot it’s got it so, so wrong. I haven’t even been able to catch a storm when I’ve tried.

So for this reason I am giving up on the rest of the year for storms. Not going to believe one forecast. I’m going to make my own assumptions (that it won’t happen) and will just nowcast, perhaps. But probably will just do something else instead.

2020 has been a total waste of time weatherwise.

Even if we were to get a humdinger tonight, we’ve still been burned in the south. You couldn’t have made up such a disappointing period of convective weather for Surrey.

To add - the storms London had the other night were in the fog/mist - without which it would have been great but ruined by a mist that only turned up for that night. Again, can’t make it up.

It also follows about 3 previous busts involving our area earlier in the year. Statistically it would seem highly unlikely everything would bust for us but there you go - can’t trust statistics. 🤷‍♂️

I’ve decided it’s best to stay humble, and if you have your heart set on storms, (I know it’s been a dogs dinner of a year) book a holiday to somewhere like Florida, Arizona in July/August, or even the Balearics in September or October. You’ll almost certainly get your fix usually with any of those. 

I’d still love to get a Eurotunnel run booked and chase in France, Benelux and Germany for when they get a severe outbreak. Trouble is, it’s such short notice and constantly chopping and changing. You’d be hard pushed to get it nailed on right. 

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Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

Posted Images

Some massive towers going up on the horizon over to my SW (probably over towards the Welsh Borders).

688090130_IMG_20200817_1319229751.thumb.jpg.ad2a60466378a76974a7aa3a48a6f2b3.jpg

Edited by Ryukai
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9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’ve decided it’s best to stay humble, and if you have your heart set on storms, (I know it’s been a dogs dinner of a year) book a holiday to somewhere like Florida, Arizona in July/August, or even the Balearics in September or October. You’ll almost certainly get your fix usually with any of those. 

I’d still love to get a Eurotunnel run booked and chase in France, Benelux and Germany for when they get a severe outbreak. Trouble is, it’s such short notice and constantly chopping and changing. You’d be hard pushed to get it nailed on right. 

I guess this is the rub, as I would have been away several times by now but for this blasted world lockdown 😔

So instead stuck on an island with one of the worst records for storms - in the region with one of the most worstening records within that set of records!

I just feel like Everyday I’m missing opportunities but don’t know what to do to improve the odds. Tried chasing over the last week and literally feel like every choice I made was the wrong one 😐

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17 minutes ago, Mark said:

So that's this morning's hit and miss out of the way around South London. Torrential rain was the top feature.

Now looking at the zoomed out radar, hoping for potential later...

All I can see on the radar is heavy showers, and the air doesn’t have that ‘feel’ to it anymore. Was expecting thunder up until 2pm but it’s looking unlikely.

Actually hoping the sun comes out soon so we can have a nice walk instead 🙂

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38 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I can’t blame anyone, but if the forecasts are consistently this way out why bother with the computing power and the time and effort? Or at least look at what we need to do to better the system. I’m just aghast at how many days on the trot it’s got it so, so wrong. I haven’t even been able to catch a storm when I’ve tried.

So for this reason I am giving up on the rest of the year for storms. Not going to believe one forecast. I’m going to make my own assumptions (that it won’t happen) and will just nowcast, perhaps. But probably will just do something else instead.

2020 has been a total waste of time weatherwise.

Not really one to sound like 'that guy', bud, but do remember that models are lacking in a fair lot of data whilst the pandemic is still on-going.

I was 'storm-dry' for a couple of years (back when all was fine) and even though warnings were in place, etc. I just passed it off as "oh well, maybe another day", then just like waiting for a bus, loads came along.

The 'will it, won't it' thing is the best part of the weather. Chin up and fingers crossed you'll get something soon. *passes you a pint* #keepSmiling 🙂 

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2 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

Heathrow Airport webcam screenshot. Look at them clouds

 

CropperCapture[7].jpg

That must be looking west over Reading. Actually, just spotted the plane direction, so yes.

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Anyone know what that weird cloud in the distance is?! 🤔 

DSC01319.JPG

DSC01320.JPG

Edited by Zak M
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47 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Okay so don’t really care if this sounds ‘moany’ - but now it’s all done and dusted I can say with all my heart that I can’t remember another time in my life that forecasts have got it so wrong for this area.

I know people are going to say one of the following:

• ... these things are hard to predict!

• ... many places were affected by storms so the forecasts were spot on!

Well, let me tell you that it’s now been 7 days and from a broad imby perspective, it’s 7 days of WAY OFF forecasts for this area.

I judge a forecast to be a warning about weather - and not a guide for storm/wind/snow chasers - and in that regard I would expect it to tell people to expect severe or inclement weather.

For 7 days we’ve actually had pretty benign weather. Yes - very hot - but it’s barely done anything other than the odd shower. We had ‘storms’ on one day, but these were rumbling fair-weather clouds until they departed our area. Then (as usual) they became more significant as they moved away.

I can’t blame anyone, but if the forecasts are consistently this way out why bother with the computing power and the time and effort? Or at least look at what we need to do to better the system. I’m just aghast at how many days on the trot it’s got it so, so wrong. I haven’t even been able to catch a storm when I’ve tried.

So for this reason I am giving up on the rest of the year for storms. Not going to believe one forecast. I’m going to make my own assumptions (that it won’t happen) and will just nowcast, perhaps. But probably will just do something else instead.

2020 has been a total waste of time weatherwise.

Even if we were to get a humdinger tonight, we’ve still been burned in the south. You couldn’t have made up such a disappointing period of convective weather for Surrey.

To add - the storms London had the other night were in the fog/mist - without which it would have been great but ruined by a mist that only turned up for that night. Again, can’t make it up.

It also follows about 3 previous busts involving our area earlier in the year. Statistically it would seem highly unlikely everything would bust for us but there you go - can’t trust statistics. 🤷‍♂️

I could not have put this better myself. 2020 will go down in this area as the year that the warnings promised so much for eight straight days and delivered nothing, apart from one half hour of sheet lighting in the early hours. Ehat a complete flop. I completely agree with you and my way of thinking has ruled it our for this area unless we get very lucky like a September a couple years ago that delivered an intense rogue cell.seems best places for storms are exmoor, the east/southeast, midlands and wales. Somerset especially northeast somerset has a dry shield over it this year.

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