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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Got some cool pictures of the London development on my evening walk. Stood and watched it grow for a while. Considering not much has come this way, it was great to watch, even if from afar! 

Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

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1 minute ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

It looks like Ipswich and points north might get hit if that Belgium storm survives the channel crossing

Some big heights showing on that storm, 10KM plus 🤗

EEF1B6D0-BF79-4E52-855F-8F020BACE706.thumb.png.5d14d4acc1cfc392168a695eb29a5b4b.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Ugh. We get the lighter stuff here in LB. All the interesting stuff off to the east of Beds. The in laws in Bedford getting a pasting by the looks. 
 

Some bits currently in Central London might hit us later. Much more humid than yesterday. 

Its typical again isn't it bud...now all the action is to the east of us lol can't make it up 😂

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1 minute ago, Nick1972 said:

Its typical again isn't it bud...now all the action is to the east of us lol can't make it up 😂

Yes. In the firing line for hours yesterday, darkest rain shadows in the whole UK. For steady, non thundery rain. Genuinely can’t make it up 😂

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1 minute ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

Is it me or does it looks like 2 storm heading towards the midlands

It does appear that storms are heading our way. But over the past few hours, not much seems to survive west of the M1, just the odd rogue non-thundery downpour that soon dies again.

However, isn't the energy fuelling these storms meant be moving north and west? We may get something a bit later?

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15:00 Update

Surface observations indicate a convergence zone is developing NE of London and a Surface confluence zone has developed from Central North Norfolk SSW towards London. NE Winds are meeting NNW winds and then meeting SW Winds across London. This is resulting in significant surface uplift across the PINK region of my Forecast. At the same time surface temperatures have reached 24-25C across the Region and somewhat drier more buoyant air is moving north in assoc with the active upper trough to the South.

These conditions have resulted in significant surface lift and convection has readily developed. Significant CAPE has developed over East Anglia and Eastern England and Deep Layer Shear has increased somewhat also, this is resulting in some organisation for storms to develop into Multicells this afternoon, with Daughter cells likely to fire to the SSE of the main cells as they drift to the WNW or NW. Tops to -50C to -60C or around 40,000ft in places.

Storms have the potential to become quite intense with very large rainfall rates, Hail, and increasingly intense C/G Lightning and an increasing risk of Marginally strong wind gusts. (45mph)

Storms will continue to intensify and organise through the late afternoon & evening as the upper level cooling increases and Deep layer shear increases. Storms continuing to move NW this afternoon.

The 12Z Herstmoncuex ascent indicates the increasingly favourable thermodynamic environment and modifying the ascent to a temp of 24/25C produces over 1,600 j/kg of MUCAPE. The profile has 27 Knts of DLS with winds veering more SE with height indicating that weaker storms will move WNW and deeper storms which can tap into the larger CAPE can take advantage of the higher Shear values and move NW. The ascent also indicates that a temp of 23-24C will readily produce convection.

Fig 1 - 03882 Unmodified
Fig 2 - 03882 Modified to a temp of 24.5C
Fig 3 - 03882 Hodograph

Time of Update 15:30
Paul Blight

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Just now, Gord said:

It does appear that storms are heading our way. But over the past few hours, not much seems to survive west of the M1, just the odd rogue non-thundery downpour that soon dies again.

However, isn't the energy fuelling these storms meant be moving north and west? We may get something a bit later?

Let's hope I can get a direct hit by a decent storm this time and not miss,die or end up being a poor effort

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2 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Yes. In the firing line for hours yesterday, darkest rain shadows in the whole UK. For steady, non thundery rain. Genuinely can’t make it up 😂

I'm just up the road near Wing. We have had lots of action this year but LB and Aylesbury seem to take a larger beating. The one a couple of nights ago did die down after looking quite massive in Luton. 

I just want it all gone now. Bring on winter!

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Just now, IanieKetchup said:

I'm just up the road near Wing. We have had lots of action this year but LB and Aylesbury seem to take a larger beating. The one a couple of nights ago did die down after looking quite massive in Luton. 

I just want it all gone now. Bring on winter!

Agree. Aylesbury genuinely winds me up. Always gets a hit! See one now gone over us and intensified towards Buckingham! Ridiculous. 

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Keeping an eye on the features over Le Havre and NW of Paris heading towards the south coast. Earlier we had a short period of rain, tiny bit of hail mixed in, couple of rumbles but little else in Hastings. Fingers crossed for something a bit more exciting later!

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Interesting cell near Redditch has suddenly gathered strength.

One to keep an eye on. How many radar frames can it survive?

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Just now, Blake Allen said:

Keeping an eye on the features over Le Havre and NW of Paris heading towards the south coast. Earlier we had a short period of rain, tiny bit of hail mixed in, couple of rumbles but little else in Hastings. Fingers crossed for something a bit more exciting later!

Yep! Hopefully things will be better later with all that cloudy mess clearing north

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6 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

15:00 Update

Surface observations indicate a convergence zone is developing NE of London and a Surface confluence zone has developed from Central North Norfolk SSW towards London. NE Winds are meeting NNW winds and then meeting SW Winds across London. This is resulting in significant surface uplift across the PINK region of my Forecast. At the same time surface temperatures have reached 24-25C across the Region and somewhat drier more buoyant air is moving north in assoc with the active upper trough to the South.

These conditions have resulted in significant surface lift and convection has readily developed. Significant CAPE has developed over East Anglia and Eastern England and Deep Layer Shear has increased somewhat also, this is resulting in some organisation for storms to develop into Multicells this afternoon, with Daughter cells likely to fire to the SSE of the main cells as they drift to the WNW or NW. Tops to -50C to -60C or around 40,000ft in places.

Storms have the potential to become quite intense with very large rainfall rates, Hail, and increasingly intense C/G Lightning and an increasing risk of Marginally strong wind gusts. (45mph)

Storms will continue to intensify and organise through the late afternoon & evening as the upper level cooling increases and Deep layer shear increases. Storms continuing to move NW this afternoon.

The 12Z Herstmoncuex ascent indicates the increasingly favourable thermodynamic environment and modifying the ascent to a temp of 24/25C produces over 1,600 j/kg of MUCAPE. The profile has 27 Knts of DLS with winds veering more SE with height indicating that weaker storms will move WNW and deeper storms which can tap into the larger CAPE can take advantage of the higher Shear values and move NW. The ascent also indicates that a temp of 23-24C will readily produce convection.

Fig 1 - 03882 Unmodified
Fig 2 - 03882 Modified to a temp of 24.5C
Fig 3 - 03882 Hodograph

Time of Update 15:30
Paul Blight

Sun is trying to make an effort but I think any development will be south Norfolk into Suffolk. 

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15 minutes ago, Blake Allen said:

Keeping an eye on the features over Le Havre and NW of Paris heading towards the south coast. Earlier we had a short period of rain, tiny bit of hail mixed in, couple of rumbles but little else in Hastings. Fingers crossed for something a bit more exciting later!

Sun out here though I can see darkening skies around 

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Not sure whats was more boring, watching the Spanish GP or looking at the radar hoping for some convective near Bournemouth......Not even seen the sun since about 5pm on Thursday....

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