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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Doom & gloom on the horizon there in Brighton. It'll be interesting to see rain totals from there soon. 

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Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

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Cloud breaking up in SE London. Blue sky visible. Considering we've only had about an hour of drizzle all week, I have a good feeling about what's crossing the channel. 

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Grey and overcast here currently. Hopefully all of this murk breaks up and allows some surface-based convection to develop.

Should do - it brightened up here some time ago although those showers moving nw from e of London may be affecting you soon

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12:00 Update

Airmass imagery indicates the potent upper trough to the South of the UK remains on course to move north across England & Wales later today. The surface trough is well placed to the South of the Sussex Coast at present and there continue to be Sferics in the region of the deepest convection. This likely to begin to move towards the South Coast and increasingly decay due to frictional affects of Land and fact it will be moving against a NE 925mb wind flow. This will tend to weaken the band as it moves North. This combined with the frictional affects of the band moving onshore will likely be enough to weaken the band, but perhaps the models suggest the weakening trend will be somewhat faster than in reality.

As the upper trough moves north the increased vorticity, lift vertical velocity will have the affect of making the air over parts of England (especially SE England and East Anglia) very much more buoyant this afternoon. Temperatures have already reached the low 20s over parts of Eastern England, though there is still considerable cloud further NW.

Surface based confluence is now occurring and convection has developed close to the east coast. Convection has also begun to develop from the 850mb Plume off the Norfolk Coast. Therefore across Eastern England we can assume the thermodynamics are quite complex and model detail even in the 1.3KM, 1.5KM and 4KM Models struggling to resolve the complex details of the thermodynamic layers.

The 05Z Herstmonceux ascent indicated that considerable drying of the profile had taken place just ahead of the trough moving north. It is not clear how much this will affect the forecast this afternoon.

This forecast now calls for the band of rain to decay early this afternoon due to the aforementioned reasons. As the upper trough moves north, surface convection should take over with forecast ascents becoming much more unstable as the afternoon progresses with daytime heating increasing and 500mb cooling we should see a steady but increasing lapse rate through the afternoon. This suggests that CAPE of 500-1000j/kg is likely to develop over parts of East Anglia and Eastern England this afternoon. At the same time the upper trough and low continues to move north and Shear increases especially over SE England and East Anglia. Therefore as the afternoon progresses Storms which do develop from the surface have the potential to become marginally severe with some organisation. Risk of Hail, Torrential Rain and increasingly frequent Lightning. Potential for gusts to increase in assoc with these storms later today too. Yesterday 80mm or so fell in a short period of time. Whilst storms today will generally move faster totals in one location should be less but perhaps a greater number of places impacted.

Storms will move NW / WNW as they develop in the steering flow ahead of the upper level low to the South. The vorticity associated with this trough currently looks stronger than the models suggest implying that there is scope for significant development of Thunderstorms across parts of Eastern England and across BENELUX through the afternoon.

Heavy Rain moving NW across the Midlands, into NW England where the rain will be slow moving and stay throughout the night. Models suggest upwards of 50-80mm may occur over parts of Wales .

Time of Update
12:41
Paul Blight

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An incredibly humid, and bright, 22C, over here... with huge amounts of low-level moisture, together with a distinct trough of upper-level instability moving north, we 'should' get our best chance of storms so far? Which, given a cumulative rumble-count of only three, wouldn't be over-difficult!:unsure2:

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Hoping I'm in a decent area for later on, looking good so far.. cloud starting to break, sun is poking through, feeling rather warm and humid out there, even have a little blue sky above, few cauliflower tops popping up now the suns out 😁😁 heres hoping...

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

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Nope, it's just a wee bit darker owing to the anvil blowing out towards Swaffham.  Not a sound here yet, it would have to be more N'ly to register tbh. 

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4 minutes ago, Thunderbuddy92 said:

Currently stood on Brighton Sea front, rain just about to go nuts haven't seen any lightning yet though 

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It’s been hammering it down in Worthing for the last 20 mins, one rumble of thunder heard 

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Thankfully the gap in the radar between Brighton and Dover is starting to fill, just inland. 

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10 minutes ago, Thunderbuddy92 said:

Currently stood on Brighton Sea front, rain just about to go nuts haven't seen any lightning yet though 

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Currently further east  (beyond Eastbourne) and not particularly extensive 

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