Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards

[MP-R]

Yes some solid convective skies today. Feeling warm too.

 

[NUT]

Yeah as some have suggested just a pity this wasn't 2/3 months ago seems would be the perfect setup for perhaps some humdingers of storms (UNLESS i'm looking at it wrong........)?

[Jo Farrow]

Had a report from Jersey of 3 lightning strikes, the last one looking blue.

Any thoughts? 

[Zak M]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

Had a report from Jersey of 3 lightning strikes, the last one looking blue.

Any thoughts? 

Lightningmaps.org was showing some earlier:

[Jo Farrow]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Lightningmaps.org was showing some earlier:

about the Blue, is that a thing?

[AndyFromDonny]

We have a storm in Doncaster, the rain super heavy aswell.  A nice surprise.

[Zak M]

Quite active for a November night:

[Rush2019]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Quite active for a November night:

Interestingly, ESTOFEX had much of the UK under marginal instability, even if it is from elevated parcels, this is what we could be seeing tonight.

[Allseasons-Si]

Arrrgghhh!!! just got in and there is a storm to my NE,cannot see any lightning as it's too foggy!!!

[A Face like Thunder]

Yellow weather warning today for rain for parts of Western Scotland but nothing for E & W. This ties in with the forecast which suggests that there may be squally showers later in parts of E&W but not continuous or heavy rain. 

[Ryukai]

Not sure if it was a squall line that came through or something but the weather went absolutely nuts here at 6am this morning.  Woke me up  House was creaking from the intense gusts and rain was slating itself horizontal. Lasted for about 15/20 mins or so.  Couple of links to nearby Wunderground stations.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISTOKE32/graph/2020-11-13/2020-11-13/daily

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISTOKEUP5/graph/2020-11-13/2020-11-13/daily

 

[A Face like Thunder]

10 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Not sure if it was a squall line that came through or something but the weather went absolutely nuts here at 6am this morning.  Woke me up  House was creaking from the intense gusts and rain was slating itself horizontal. Lasted for about 15/20 mins or so.  Couple of links to nearby Wunderground stations.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISTOKE32/graph/2020-11-13/2020-11-13/daily

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISTOKEUP5/graph/2020-11-13/2020-11-13/daily

 

I must have slept through this in neighbouring Crewe or else we didn't get the same intensity of wind. Very wet underfoot at 7am but rain had cleared and black clouds were clearing off into the distance, to be replaced by blue skies and sun ever since. 

[Jamie M]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Nov 2020

ISSUED 08:06 UTC Sun 15 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A potent upper trough will swing northeastwards across the British Isles on Sunday. Initially, divergence on the forward side will encourage heavy precipitation to develop and run northeastwards across parts of the English Channel into SE England and East Anglia. Some weak instability will likely be present, bringing the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes - but the risk overall is considered relatively low (10-15%). Showery precipitation is also likely elsewhere on Sunday morning, moving northwards and eastwards with a low risk of lightning. Given the strongly-sheared environment, some line segments will be possible in places.

The main focus for deep convection, and hence a greater risk of lightning (15-20%), will be from mid-late morning over parts of Wales and SW England as heavy showers develop and move inland. Hail is likely in several of these showers, along with perhaps a few sporadic lightning strikes. By the afternoon, a more organised comma-cloud feature associated with a tropopause fold is expected to quickly slide eastwards through the English Channel, pushing into parts of southern England. The most active portion of this feature is likely to remain offshore (and over the Channel Islands) where the greatest risk of lightning and strong outflow winds will exist - in fact there is fairly good model agreement on gusts of 70-80mph over the English Channel given a marked low-level jet. As a result, a SVR has been introduced for the risk of damaging winds (primarily offshore), and to a lesser extent for an isolated tornado - much depends on how active this feature is, and the exact track and interaction with the coastline of southern England. By Sunday evening showers will likely weaken and decay due to a combination of nocturnal cooling inland, and the upper trough departing.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Nov 2020

ISSUED 08:06 UTC Sun 15 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A potent upper trough will swing northeastwards across the British Isles on Sunday. Initially, divergence on the forward side will encourage heavy precipitation to develop and run northeastwards across parts of the English Channel into SE England and East Anglia. Some weak instability will likely be present, bringing the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes - but the risk overall is considered relatively low (10-15%). Showery precipitation is also likely elsewhere on Sunday morning, moving northwards and eastwards with a low risk of lightning. Given the strongly-sheared environment, some line segments will be possible in places.

The main focus for deep convection, and hence a greater risk of lightning (15-20%), will be from mid-late morning over parts of Wales and SW England as heavy showers develop and move inland. Hail is likely in several of these showers, along with perhaps a few sporadic lightning strikes. By the afternoon, a more organised comma-cloud feature associated with a tropopause fold is expected to quickly slide eastwards through the English Channel, pushing into parts of southern England. The most active portion of this feature is likely to remain offshore (and over the Channel Islands) where the greatest risk of lightning and strong outflow winds will exist - in fact there is fairly good model agreement on gusts of 70-80mph over the English Channel given a marked low-level jet. As a result, a SVR has been introduced for the risk of damaging winds (primarily offshore), and to a lesser extent for an isolated tornado - much depends on how active this feature is, and the exact track and interaction with the coastline of southern England. By Sunday evening showers will likely weaken and decay due to a combination of nocturnal cooling inland, and the upper trough departing.

Oh my in November, so this is just a warm up

[Badgers01]

That’s some forecast can’t wait for the tropospheric fold to go over ! 

[Super_Uwe]

Blimey! Can hear relatively constant distant rumbling from that storm SW of Kingsbridge. Interesting skies too...

[Thomas Green]

Squall line just past through me , radar didnt see that bad, but underestimated the squall line, torrential rain and strong winds with a little hail now the sunshine is coming out with those refreshing westerly winds 

[Zak M]

The English channel has been very active today. 

[Zak M]

First lightning strikes inland are in Dorset. Meteologix has three of them detected as +CGs.

Edited November 15, 2020 by Zak M

[Mapantz]

Lightning detected here.

[matt111]

A showers just reached here with quite a dramatic increase in wind speed accompanied by torrential rain. 

[Eagle Eye]

This is edging towards me

[Mapantz]

Just at my sister's half a mile away. Torrential rain and hail! Road like a river. 172 mm/hr rain rate.

[Stroudley]

Lightning and thunder here on the Sussex coast.

[matty40s]

Gonna get a bit nasty on the surf beach in Bournemouth soon.  Lots of people in the water!!!

https://magicseaweed.com/Bournemouth-Surf-Report/12/