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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Argyle10 Contributor

Argyle10

Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells, snow, thunder snow, tornadoes
  • Location: North Cornwall
Posted
8 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I think it's strong winds.  I think that's what I can hear in Newbury where I temporarily am

Yeah same here

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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
18 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I think it's strong winds.  I think that's what I can hear in Newbury where I temporarily am

Mystery solved! It was a firework competition at Abingdon. You'd hear that from Newbury!

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
24 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

False? 

Screenshot_20200823-002338_Samsung Internet.jpg

Definitely 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Aug 2020

ISSUED 08:01 UTC Sun 23 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad westerly flow covers Britain and Ireland on Sunday, with a better overlap of cool 500mb temperatures with relatively warm 850mb temperatures to generate corridor of steeper mid-level lapse rates from Northern Ireland across the northern England / north Midlands. Consequently this zone will be the focus for deeper convection in response to diurnal heating through the day, although the overall depth of convection is rather restricted and so lightning is likely to be quite isolated, and similar to Saturday most likely from Yorkshire south across the East Midlands into Norfolk (15-20% chance) where 20-30kts bulk shear will aid cell longevity. The most organised cells could produce gusty winds up to 30-35mph locally.

Shower activity will tend to weaken overnight, but an area of showery rain associated with a shallow low sliding eastwards across southern Ireland into SW Britain could produce the odd isolated lightning strike, but the risk is considered rather low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-23

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted (edited)

Squall line sets up on UKV tomorrow afternoon & moves SSE

image.thumb.png.842213389c2bb2e0939e06680c6050fd.png 

Edited by Jamiee
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

It looks like a trough rather than a squall line, with a line of convergence. You'd associate a squall line with a cold front, so there would be a marked drop in temperature behind it.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
53 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Squall line sets up on UKV tomorrow afternoon & moves SSE

image.thumb.png.842213389c2bb2e0939e06680c6050fd.png 

The last feature that done that, in June sometime, gave me my only storm of the year so far, and a negative cg in my back garden. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

THUNDER!!!:yahoo:

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

It looks like a trough rather than a squall line, with a line of convergence. You'd associate a squall line with a cold front, so there would be a marked drop in temperature behind it.

It was 15 degC and wet in Blackpool at 12, the convergence line was through Stoke(brought the M6 to a halt), and I am now in Northants at 19 degC. 

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

image.thumb.png.5d80f8b618de7cabaa61cffb48cb83ac.png image.thumb.png.abaf64cd19e0651b236388896bc805ac.png

May hear a bang if you're near Edgware in a minute. I didn't expect this much activity today but I guess I haven't been looking enough at models!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Just finished uploading the storm that was in the North Sea two days ago. Contains 40 minutes of lightning from start to finish. 

I have enhanced the video so you can see the lightning a bit better.

 

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

Met office App calling for thunder tomorrow morning in Sussex.

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

image.thumb.png.d167fbe9d43946432da04bcabe77f88d.png image.thumb.png.cf5e91d29c6d833338fb808da95b6a08.png

Might see a flash or two if that starts to produce anything. Always developing over the blinking sea. 

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

I do believe for the south it could be a vaguely interesting week. Several low-level thunder risks could transpire if we have some luck. Also the SELy direction of any troughs/fronts is always a bonus for this region (when the other right parameters are in place).

 

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snowfall09 Apprentice

snowfall09

Posted
  • Location: Folkestone
  • Location: Folkestone
Posted (edited)

ESTOFEX Issued a level 1 for the SW & Wales today (24th Aug)

 

A level 1 was issued for parts of Great Britain and Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

...Great Britain and Ireland...

At the end of the forecast period, the cold front enters the LVL1 area. It is emphasized by a maximum in the LL moisture convergence field which indicates a small moisture tongue. Along that tongue forecast soundings indicate the possibility that a bit (MU)-CAPE can develop which enhances the possibility for DMC.

However, the development of CAPE and thus the possibility of thunderstorms along the cold front is the main factor of uncertainty.

If storms indeed develop, they can benefit from high DLS and strong mid level winds. In combination with the entering dry intrusion with descending dry air from above, the threat of severe to extremely severe wind gusts is enhanced.

In addition, also LLS is high and LCLs are low. Therefore the development of a short tornado event can not be ruled out.
 

2020082506_202008232303_1_stormforecast.xml.png

Edited by snowfall09
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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
9 hours ago, snowfall09 said:

ESTOFEX Issued a level 1 for the SW & Wales today (24th Aug)

 

A level 1 was issued for parts of Great Britain and Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

...Great Britain and Ireland...

At the end of the forecast period, the cold front enters the LVL1 area. It is emphasized by a maximum in the LL moisture convergence field which indicates a small moisture tongue. Along that tongue forecast soundings indicate the possibility that a bit (MU)-CAPE can develop which enhances the possibility for DMC.

However, the development of CAPE and thus the possibility of thunderstorms along the cold front is the main factor of uncertainty.

If storms indeed develop, they can benefit from high DLS and strong mid level winds. In combination with the entering dry intrusion with descending dry air from above, the threat of severe to extremely severe wind gusts is enhanced.

In addition, also LLS is high and LCLs are low. Therefore the development of a short tornado event can not be ruled out.
 

2020082506_202008232303_1_stormforecast.xml.png

“End of forecast period” suggests that this risk is possibly going to head eastwards after 6am... is this correct?

That would be good if it did

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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted

Sferic showing up in the mass of torrential rain which has now moved out of Devon.

Alot of torrential Downpours showing up around London, 
Also some moving through Southampton ,. 

"Thundery Downpours" in the literalness of the word.

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