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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Lightning, Tornado, Hurricane, Heatwave
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
38 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

We're currently under the remains off all the stuff that was over London yesterday.  Murky Drizzle, drizzle and more drizzle  Strangely enough it 'feels' warmer and muggier than yesterday, despite the temp/DP/Hum being alot lower....

Am assuming this is going to clear out later, for potentially more showers/weak storms later.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
9 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Does anyone else feel like the MetO need to update the warnings? Still incredibly broad ?‍♂️

Just take every forecast with huge reserves of scepticism

This is why I trust the CW, staplehurst, brickfielder, Paul blight and Tony Gilbert forecasts more than many others - as they try and allow for the “what ifs“ and don’t make broad assumptions. There are others too that I have respect for (sorry for not including!) but the meto, google weather*, Ventusky* and those like it may as well suggest wild fire tornadoes and clouds of biting snakes for all the likelihood of them getting it right  
 

*why I still enjoy using these I don’t know. But they are kind of fun

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
8 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Does anyone else feel like the MetO need to update the warnings? Still incredibly broad ?‍♂️

I've got into enough trouble with my opinions on the MO's Yellow Warnings.

Suffice it to say, no they will not update them and if a warning goes to Amber you can pretty much expect the event to have already finished.

I have rarely been impressed with the MO's weather warning system; it seems designed to cover their backs rather than serve useful information.

I'd better shut up, now! I'll get into trouble again...

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am up in Norfolk to this evening and skies are dark looking towards Cromer - Am guessing my drive back around 5pm could be eventful lol 

Better get some Pics/Video when you do, or nobody will believe it ever happened.  

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

Reigate murk has re-established itself. Sigh. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
12 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Does anyone else feel like the MetO need to update the warnings? Still incredibly broad ?‍♂️

do it with a broad enough brush and your bound to be right somewhere , seems to be their philosophy

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

do it with a broad enough brush and your bound to be right somewhere , seems to be their philosophy

It's the only philosophy given the set-up as per there tex in warnings.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Rapidly weakening in the channel as it rapidly approaches the coast .  Looked good over nothern France earlier . 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
2 minutes ago, offerman said:

Rapidly weakening in the channel as it rapidly approaches the coast .  Looked good over nothern France earlier . 

On the contrary it seems to have become more active in the last 5 mins

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

 For the past week over here this is what has been shown every day and yet out of the last 6 to 7 days there was only once when they were a couple of flashes of lightning and couple of rumbles at 2 o'clock in the morning one night

  They do seem to go over the top with the thunderstorms icons much of the time .  Also had read severe weather warnings for three days last week which did not materialise .

8D51182F-2469-4762-A40D-59E830F3A56F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leiston
  • Weather Preferences: Three fine days and a thunderstorm
  • Location: Leiston

The last CG I witnessed in Leistonia was 25th July last year, likely the best singular elevated cell I've seen.

That thing was anvil crawling in broad daylight from some 20 miles away before coming onshore between Felixstowe and here, not surprising given the cloud tops were said to of been at flight level at the time.

We did have a near overhead at 3am Friday morning here, so have not been stormless, but it was desperately elevated and dropped no rain or CG that I could see.

I have a feeling in my water today and not because I've drank too much coffee.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Also beware because for a time that stuff in the channel seems to have become more elevated in nature - blitzortung wasn’t picking up half the strikes by my lightning app did. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

On the contrary it seems to have become more active in the last 5 mins

 Okay thanks for that flash bang I don't have the data up until five minutes ago mine only updates every 15 minutes .  So thanks For that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Also beware because for a time that stuff in the channel seems to have become more elevated in nature - blitzortung wasn’t picking up half the strikes by my lightning app did. 

 I don't seem to be many black colours within the echoes only oranges and light red .

 

 Surprisingly sometimes there were really dark reds which normally is indicative of thunderstorms,  but when that was right overhead at times last week there was still no thunder and lightning just really heavy Rain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

Storm cell south west of me near Debenham, strikes showing on radar. Can’t hear anything. More look to breaking out north Norfolk.

Moving slowing northwards towards diss. 

Edited by Blazerblue
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Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton
6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

On the contrary it seems to have become more active in the last 5 mins

Sat 24 deffo shows that all that in channel is growing and will make it across. CLOUD TOPS are higher and there seems to be some vreaks in the cloud ahead of it, giving some surface heating. Could be a good day today for us folks

429A095A-36CB-47AE-A07B-CFDC215B0767.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
3 minutes ago, offerman said:

 I don't seem to be many black colours within the echoes only oranges and light red .

 

 Surprisingly sometimes there were really dark reds which normally is indicative of thunderstorms,  but when that was right overhead at times last week there was still no thunder and lightning just really heavy Rain. 

It’s a strange week, there have been storms where the rain wasn’t being picked up because of low level evaporation, loads of misleading anaprops, elevated storms evading radar and all sorts of other anomalies. Weather isn’t ever straightforward!

I’ve learned a lot in the last 7 days - most importantly that nowcasting and real-world obs are essential!

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Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton

East anglia has “exploded” lol well at least the breaks in the cloud are doing something today. However there seems to a strip of elevated cloud/convection in last 30 mins on sat 24z this could be associated with this. Bound to see something today if you haven’t already!

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Just now, Justin1705 said:

East anglia has “exploded” lol well at least the breaks in the cloud are doing something today. However there seems to a strip of elevated cloud/convection in last 30 mins on sat 24z this could be associated with this. Bound to see something today if you haven’t already!

Exploded  There's a small shower currently over my location. It was epic....

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Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton
Just now, Norfolk Sheep said:

Exploded  There's a small shower currently over my location. It was epic....

Hence the quotation marks lol you cant complain however there was quite a few strikes from cell Near Ipswich? as soon as it initiated? Any rumbles hesrd norfolk sheep?

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
3 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Hence the quotation marks lol you cant complain however there was quite a few strikes from cell Near Ipswich? as soon as it initiated? Any rumbles hesrd norfolk sheep?

Nah, I'm just 10m SW of Norwich! Heaviest showers are to the N and S, there's a convenient gap between them.....

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