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As we approach peak season (late August looks very good from a Kelvin Wave/Climo point of view) Tropical Depression 11 (soon to be Josephine) has formed in the central Atlantic.

In terms of track the Euro ensembles currently suggest there will be a weakness in the ridge allowing a recurve so likely FISH food. 

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In terms of strength the situation is a little complicated. From now until day 3 the environment is pretty good for strengthening and the NHC brings this to 60mph however at days 3-4 it will encounter moderate convergent shear  from the SW and quite a few models try kill it before shear potentially relaxes again (though still likely to be convergent and from the north which for a storm moving north means potentially cooler and drier air).

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Storm currently has good banding but the core needs to be much tighter. 

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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

Edited by Jo Farrow
Now named TS
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