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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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MetOffice now going for thunderstorms breaking out tonight in their updated text forecast

Tonight:

A warm night in prospect for most areas, especially southern UK. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over parts of England and Wales overnight and perhaps spreading into southern Scotland.

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Oo she's a beauty 

A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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Woken by a solitary rumble from that cell off the Kent coast. Not showing on any detectors though 🧐 seems to be a theme with the detectors at the moment and not picking up strikes.

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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Hirlam kicking things off tomorrow night now too

image.thumb.png.45ad4ba356d2684c767330d5ad0b8e33.png

It's starting now it looks to me. 

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Looking good now for tonight. WRF still not really interested in precip but it is upgrading on every run.

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

Woken by a solitary rumble from that cell off the Kent coast. Not showing on any detectors though 🧐 seems to be a theme with the detectors at the moment and not picking up strikes.

And they have 1 job...maybe they're on strike...

Lol

Edited by CreweCold
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A few rumbles of thunder and a heavy shower around 6 this morning, moved off into the North Sea

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Looking like a Midlands, Wales and Northern England event again primarily with some scraps maybe affecting the Desert Zone of the South East

I am starting to wonder just what we need to get a proper 1980 to 2000 style 6 hour MCS nowadays as the climate has shifted drastically.

382 days and STILL Counting since the last night time flash of lightning in the COS and not expecting that to change anytime soon. Zzzzzzzz

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The joys of Sunday morning. Cell developing right as it moves away from my location loool.

I hope that's not a blinking theme for the next week.

image.thumb.png.343cdc065a2bb2a1bb0c0a4c9194ef5b.pngimage.thumb.png.5653f6995033d7df1f34fa9db13b6181.pngimage.thumb.png.4855fbc3f29a43fe2cd6d71a8461009a.png 

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3 hours ago, Harry said:

Woken by a solitary rumble from that cell off the Kent coast. Not showing on any detectors though 🧐 seems to be a theme with the detectors at the moment and not picking up strikes.

Similar here in SE Kent - woken around 5am by one loud rumble, a look at the radar then showed the shower was moving up the Channel. Another two rumbles and that was it. 
Just had a brief shower but that didn’t even wet the ground.

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Morning all

UKV 03z highlights this morning...😀

As ever...just for fun at this range.

1EB90735-8C86-4107-8EA0-EAED5F4C23C1.thumb.png.a2a4fb5b8be6b27140ed1f099eb493aa.png99E0E1FF-DCC3-4DDE-BD5B-0A0718921A1B.thumb.png.0ebf9fa083b5485c7f452db40a0c9885.pngBDA6F587-0EBE-41BB-B70E-9B1BBE8DF90D.thumb.png.1673670a264d3247ac931cc1fb65bee1.png6F81D03A-A1AF-4A1E-85EC-DB0B16F6F2FC.thumb.png.786fa4d63d2aeb33295619e895ee90d2.pngAAC26146-8731-4650-B044-43D81919BE91.thumb.png.fdc44697b8e7041923a4a7c9fc606188.png
 

Back to the current timeframe - latest from @staplehurst for today.


19C66B2F-173D-4719-B3BF-2AE96F8DA435.thumb.png.2f2f85407ff3ee0919880e378facf594.png
 

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WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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25 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Similar here in SE Kent - woken around 5am by one loud rumble, a look at the radar then showed the shower was moving up the Channel. Another two rumbles and that was it. 
Just had a brief shower but that didn’t even wet the ground.

Lol. My actions step by step 😂

Edit - oh here we go - about 4 hours later 😂

74E5610C-A5C2-43A7-AD3F-2F3BF06FFAB4.png

Edited by Harry
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cloudy in Wales today.. waiting for the Cloud to burn up,. looks like the same for a lot of England too apart from the Southern and SE coasts

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1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

cloudy in Wales today.. waiting for the Cloud to burn up,. looks like the same for a lot of England too apart from the Southern and SE coasts

much cooler today though. 

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These models are all over the shop, even for tonight and tomorrow. I've literally no idea what's going to happen!

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11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yup. It’s even confusing those in the know... I’ve read two (usually reliable) forecasters give two somewhat conflicting outlooks for later this afternoon... hence why I don’t really have any faith in any of the charts I see posted.

It’s a case of keep one eye on the sat, one on the weather radar and one on real-time sferics

That’s three whole eyes 🤔 

I've got three tabs open on phone browser: this thread, lightning maps and blitz. Add to that constant radar & satellite checks via NetWx radar and Windy app, and it's going to be a LOT of phone checking over the next few days! The problem becomes keeping it fully charged in case I suddenly need to go storm chasing. 😂

DSLR batteries were charged yesterday, so I've probably killed off my chances just by doing that!

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4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I've got three tabs open on phone browser: this thread, lightning maps and blitz. Add to that constant radar & satellite checks via NetWx radar and Windy app, and it's going to be a LOT of phone checking over the next few days! The problem becomes keeping it fully charged in case I suddenly need to go storm chasing. 😂

DSLR batteries were charged yesterday, so I've probably killed off my chances just by doing that!

tell you one thing, it is a bit fresher and cooler here, with complete cloud cover as well 

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This has just popped up for tomorrow.

Please let it become reality! 😮

89277598-7FA0-4B8F-8197-ED939E7B1200.thumb.png.ebbfa505c0192cbf5cdbc471eafcbe56.png 
 

Issued: 10:50 (UTC+1) on Sun 9 Aug 2020

Areas of thunderstorms are increasingly likely to develop over the the UK during Monday and move north or north-westwards to affect parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland through the afternoon and evening. Whilst the most intense thunderstorms, in some instances associated with large hail, will most probably be those triggered by the high temperatures of the day over England and Wales, other areas of storms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and strong gusty winds could move north to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland during the afternoon and evening. Where the storms occur, rainfall totals of 30-40 mm could fall in an hour, with some locations potentially receiving 60-80 mm in 3 hours, although these will be fairly isolated.

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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6 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

tell you one thing, it is a bit fresher and cooler here, with complete cloud cover as well 

a bit of Blue sky has appeared in Blackwood 😛

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