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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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36 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Humidity is what's happened... humidity.....

But yeah, looking at the Wunderground stations around you, the stations 'infront' of the drizzly shower are showing about 40-45% humidity and 30C'ish', the stations behind are showing 60-65% humidity and 27C'ish'.  So even though the air temps gone down, the rise in humidity is making it 'feel' hotter.

Not so sure, obs from Hurn suggest the opposite, @1520 was 27C with light rain and 55% humidity, next reading was 30C and 45% humidity. 

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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1 minute ago, Calayte said:

My area has actually got maybe 1.5 degrees hotter today than it was meant too, were being forecast 29-30 its now 31.3. Good news.

Considering it was still 23c at 1 this afternoon, not bad going.

We had 25C forecast for here, it's 31 now and still going up, even had to finally break out the fan.... 🥵

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not so sure, obs from Hurn suggest the opposite, @1520 was 27C with light rain and 55% humidity, next reading was 30C and 45% humidity. 

The relative humidity will have dropped because your temperature has increased. 

All relative humidity is, is a measure of the amount of moisture in the air compared to how much it can possibly hold. Warmer air holds more moisture, so if the level of moisture in the air remains the same your RH will decrease as the temperature increases.

I'd recommend looking at dew points instead of RH for an idea of moisture.

Edited by Nick L
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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Depends on what it is, if it develops an mcs, they have their own micro climate, which could keep it going. Unfortunately I'm not sure that it is one, in which case they will erode on our cap. 

its strengthening rapidly.... and would be heading straight to kent

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3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

A lot of hi-res models start the run incorrectly like the latest UKV run for example, AROME 12z at 4pm is in-line with the current situation and therefore shows real potential.

The word there is potential

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Long time no see.

According to GFS 0.25 6z, the action appears in the SE corner, apparently from nowhere, from 15z onwards. It seems there's a window where the cap (CIN=0) is low or is not present. I have to say, however, it's a small window, and with no real dewpoint depression, and indeed with increasing moisture all the way up to 800hPa, there may only be time for elevated clouds sufficient for (lots of) rain. Surface heating looks right on the lower side of the margin for surface convection to kick off.

As always, wait and see, but probably best to wait until tomorrow if you're in the SE - unless the luck is in, of course!

gfs0256z-1.png

gfs0256z-2.png

gfsskewt.png

Edited by VillagePlank
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4 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

We had 25C forecast for here, it's 31 now and still going up, even had to finally break out the fan.... 🥵

Its unreal isn't it. Can't believe the jump in temps over the last couple of hours, don't think ive ever experienced anything like that before.

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3 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Long time no see.

According to GFS 0.25 6z, the action appears in the SE corner, apparently from nowhere, from 15z onwards. It seems there's a window where the cap (CIN=0) is low or is not present. I have to say, however, it's a small window, and with no real dewpoint depression, and indeed with increasing moisture all the way up to 800hPa, there may only be time for elevated clouds sufficient for (lots of) rain. Surface heating looks right on the lower side of the margin for surface convection to kick off. As always, wait and see, but probably best to wait until tomorrow if you're in the SE - unless the luck is in, of course!

gfs0256z-1.png

gfs0256z-2.png

gfsskewt.png

finally some good news 🙂 the cell in france though, that could bring the activity if it survives the travel

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5 minutes ago, matt111 said:

12z UKV makes more of tomorrow night

image.thumb.png.1f967614a5d4ef5eefb8c3397096de79.png

Has our time FINALLY come? I hope these runs stay like that, it'd make for a lot of excitement from the storm-starved south this time tomorrow, but the poor old SE would still be peeved.

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

I have a feeling this is going to be a South and east event from today onwards. Just feels like that way.

Is that such a bad thing for a change? 😉😆

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Just now, Jamie_shirebrook said:

This looks promising 

IMG_20200811_162429.jpg

Hi Jamie, welcome to the forum. Would you mind popping your location in your profile please so we know where you're posting this from? Cheers.

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