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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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Just now, Ndc Ozzie said:

BBC has had me down for storms Monday to Friday,still waiting.I tend not to believe what BBC put and use the more knowledgeable forecasters on the forums

Stopped using BBC weather last year, they are super bad with predicting thunderstorms

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

Posted Images

Temperatures have reached 32-33C in and around London, a cumulus field is starting to bubble just south of London over Surrey and northern parts of E / W Sussex. Convergence evident in surface observations too. Let the attempts to try and punch through the cap commence... 

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4 hours ago, nodrog said:

May I post this here? Last nights amazing offerings across the North West! Storm Chase UK - Enjoy

https://youtu.be/cSgFfsBwY6w

Hi, Im not sure how to upload but ive a couple of videos from Bispham through to fairhaven lake at lytham from last night. Curious on how to post them on here. TIA. 

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2 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Temperatures have reached 32-33C in and around London, a cumulus field is starting to bubble just south of London over Surrey and northern parts of E / W Sussex. Convergence evident in surface observations too. Let the attempts to try and punch through the cap commence... 

just hit 33.9°C  2 miles from me and 33 in my area

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So far the met office forecast for here has been bang on. No storms and still saying the same for the rest of the week.

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The UKV is much more interesting for parts of the south on Thursday. It also still shows the overnight storms crossing the channel tomorrow night but the latest run shows them dying out just before they reach the south coast, that could all change of course. 

image.png.9a3944886d9d0f7069052cd0fc0f4a

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14 minutes ago, Bristol Aviation said:

Stopped using BBC weather last year, they are super bad with predicting thunderstorms

Do not rely on TV based weather apps or forecasts when it comes to showers or storms full stop !!! Damn why do people even use them on here still 😂 

Back to topic, I still have the suspicion elevated storms will be firing up from a line between West East Anglia & NW England later today. Although atmospherically it doesn't seem as primed today albeit the cape is good, not all the ingredients are in line. Hoping with pressure lowering slightly over the coming days this will be helping things along somewhat. Had some light showers earlier from this mornings activity near Cambridge but it quickly fizzled out into nothing. 

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6 minutes ago, matt111 said:

The UKV is much more interesting for parts of the south on Thursday. It also still shows the overnight storms crossing the channel tomorrow night but the latest run shows them dying out just before they reach the south coast, that could all change of course. 

image.png.9a3944886d9d0f7069052cd0fc0f4a

The storms nearly making it but dying out sounds like the most accurate likelihood for tomorrow. We have about 4 similar ‘events’ from earlier in the year to support this. The only question is which anomaly is responsible for the bust.

As much as there’s about 4 days of southern storms on the cards I think this will be isolated and “some areas will miss out completely”. Very unlikely we will get the prolific storms that many are expecting.

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The storms nearly making it but dying out sounds like the most accurate likelihood for tomorrow. We have about 4 similar ‘events’ from earlier in the year to support this. The only question is which anomaly is responsible for the bust.

Yes I was watching the one in late June from the clifftop. Got down there only to see a few distant flashes and that was it. 

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The storms nearly making it but dying out sounds like the most accurate likelihood for tomorrow. We have about 4 similar ‘events’ from earlier in the year to support this. The only question is which anomaly is responsible for the bust.

As much as there’s about 4 days of southern storms on the cards I think this will be isolated and “some areas will miss out completely”. Very unlikely we will get the prolific storms that many are expecting.

Would love to see a repeat of the 2019 24th July plume, the whole of the country got action overnight!

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Just now, Sam Jackson said:

yeah south of weymouth

 

Kind of looks like Anaprop (false returns), but Satellite does have a white blob in that area, so there's a good chance it's legit. Next radar frame will confirm!

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2 hours ago, GeordieX9v said:

Rather sharp shower east of Chelmsford 

How far east? I am about 2 miles northeast of Chelmo and have seen nought. Been sunny most of the morning.

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Just now, Lance M said:

Kind of looks like Anaprop (false returns), but Satellite does have a white blob in that area, so there's a good chance it's legit. Next radar frame will confirm!

Noticed it on the Sat before the radar tbh. Just see what happens as usual

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5 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Kind of looks like Anaprop (false returns), but Satellite does have a white blob in that area, so there's a good chance it's legit. Next radar frame will confirm!

Surly that's too big for an Anaprop, they are normally only a couple of pixel's in size, it's also moved slightly northwards between the 2 frames it is on. 

EDIT: Definitely moving, may just clip Weymouth, so here's a cam of the beach there, should see it pass by at the very least.

uk-weymouth02.jpg
WWW.WEBCAMTAXI.COM

See Weymouth Beach live high-definition webcam in Weymouth Bay (Dorset).

 

Edited by Ryukai
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1 minute ago, Ryukai said:

Surly that's too big for an Anaprop, they are normally only a couple of pixel's in size, it's also moved slightly northwards between the 2 frames it is on.

 

Yep, it's legitimate precip. It was just the way it appeared out of nowhere without showing light rain at least first that screamed anaprop for one frame.

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All the forecasts are showing a much less stormy week than the what had been built up on this website and social media outlets. 
 

Strike out for the vast majority of the country yesterday, poor elevated scattered storms around today. It’s ripe out there. I was honestly expecting a memorable week, with most of us taking a hammering, repeated bands of heavy storms.

Reality is, there 3/4 main potential days this week, arguably a main 3. We are half way through the second day and so far it’s been hideously disappointing.

Storms are the only thing that makes this vile sticky heat acceptable. For right now, bring on the Atlantic.

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