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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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7 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

Down on the coast in East Sussex It was 22 here at 9am, by ten it was 27 by 10.39 it was 30 and now its 28.....humidity 46% dew point 18. 
sky still pretty much clear apart from classic sea haze to my west.. still feels like I’m at melting point though. This heat has been relentless. 

Lucky! Theres been some low cloud here all morning that wouldn't shift. Its finally gone temps are ''slowly climbing'' now. But that does sound way to much down there!

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1 minute ago, Calayte said:

Lucky! Theres been some low cloud here all morning that wouldn't shift. Its finally gone temps are ''slowly climbing'' now. But that does sound way to much down there!

South feels different today from what i can see, no dense low cloud this morning which allowed temp to rise quickly, air has that before storm feeling to it!

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2 minutes ago, Calayte said:

Lucky! Theres been some low cloud here all morning that wouldn't shift. Its finally gone temps are ''slowly climbing'' now. But that does sound way to much down there!

Haven’t seen a figure below 20 even over night for too long now 

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17 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 Tricky to forecast today in my view. Last nights sounding from Nottingham showed a marked CAP at 700hPa which suggested surface based convection could initiate at around 34C but could become just elevated when temperatures dip below 28C. Yesterday benefited slightly from mid level dynamics which I don't think will be present in the same way today.
 Much of the modelling shows lower humidity in the south with dew points dipping down to 14C which I have serious doubts about considering the current dew points.Precipitation charts suggest a heat island storm for London with chances of further storms at outflow boundaries (likely to have some low level vorticity). We also have convergence zones with precipitation breaking out where dew points are forecast to the highest (further North).
 Cumbria up through north west Scotland would seem to have the best chances for storms today, but bearing in mind dew points currently and the forecast dew points I would not rule out storms else where. I am also drawn to the particularly strong outflow winds from a suggested storm over London.

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What day would you say the south east has a best chance of getting a storm

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1 minute ago, Bristol Aviation said:

South feels different today from what i can see, no dense low cloud this morning which allowed temp to rise quickly, air has that before storm feeling to it!

Tbh I can feel that somewhat up here too. It feels rather humid even though its not that warm yet. 

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5 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

What day would you say the south east has a best chance of getting a storm

Charts showing thunderstorms moving up from the channel Wednesday > Thursday night into the SE but im guessing that could change fast and also im no expert.

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1 minute ago, Bristol Aviation said:

South feels different today from what i can see, no dense low cloud this morning which allowed temp to rise quickly, air has that before storm feeling to it!

Yep, much warmer morning here too without yesterdays cloudy one. Station at 29.6 C currently with dewpoint of 20.9C . Yesterday at 12.30 it was 24.4C DP 19.6C. Hottest/stickiest its felt since this spell started. Cloudless skies apart from the odd bit of cirrus, should get at least 33C I  reckon. Will it trigger anything though??

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15 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

What day would you say the south east has a best chance of getting a storm

We talking 2021 here 😛

Temperatures have impressed me here

21c at 10am 

29c at Midday

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A post-work chase to the other side of Reading/The M4 is looking likely to me. That area is now favoured by our own @Paul Sherman, Tony Gilbert on UKWW, Euro4, and UKV.

Edited by Lance M
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4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

A post-work chase to the other side of Reading/The M4 is looking likely to me. That area is now favoured by our own @Paul Sherman, Tony Gilbert on UKWW, Euro4, and UKV.

Ahhh my daughter has footy training or I would be meeting up with ya for sure

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Lowest temp last night was 21c. Currently 30.2c. I'd be happy for the Storm Death Valley title to fall,but will settle for rain.  Heat is far more bearable today....nice and dry. Might decamp to my outlaws at the highest part of the village if things do look promising. Watlington hill might be a good place to chase.....slightly nearer to the M40 for a northern route if any of you are looking to do that 

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2 minutes ago, Calayte said:

Looks like the South may well be the breeding grounds for the storms at this rate.

It's coming, some rapid instability appearing around Poole. Humidity is mad here.

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2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

forecast on bbc just now rules out any chances of storms today and tomorrow for here, thursday is last chance saloon i think.

they don't call it Sunny Spalding for nothing!

 

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1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

bbc weather saying thunderstorms all rest of week for me, interesting
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BBC has had me down for storms Monday to Friday,still waiting.I tend not to believe what BBC put and use the more knowledgeable forecasters on the forums

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