Jump to content

Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Forgive me but just how many times before have we seen this? They can’t even predict today because it’s so uncertain - so I really have doubts about anything expected past midnight tonight to remain as good as it has done in recent days.

I’m just waiting for tomorrow’s comment in the forecast write ups about activity in the SE being “limited by _______” (insert anything you want in the blank)

Limited by the seemingly unbreakable cap in the whole south and east, meaning another day looking at nice Altocumulus towers that eventually collapse on themselves. 

As of yesterday, it was 4 days in a row of seeing unstable mid-level Ac Cas for large parts of the day, with absolutely nothing resulting from it all. It's already a record for during my lifetime, but I'd be willing to bet I get up to 7 days of it!

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Forgive me but just how many times before have we seen this? They can’t even predict today because it’s so uncertain - so I really have doubts about anything expected past midnight tonight to remain as good as it has done in recent days.

I’m just waiting for tomorrow’s comment in the forecast write ups about activity in the SE being “limited by _______” (insert anything you want in the blank)

I agree models should not be relied upon too heavily. I have however often found WRF-NMM reasonably reliable and what I’m basing my optimism on is not the precise location of any precipitation but the fact that MUCAPE remains generally high to very high with several bouts of convective precipitation breaking out through the period...the fact there are models indicating precipitation breaking out under high heat humidity and instability is enough for me after the past few days, let alone months 🤗

Link to post
Share on other sites

Arome going for another battering for Midlands upto NW England for this evening into tonight and then an MCS moving up through Cumbria into Scotland early hours so can see why Dans forecast has that in the narrative. Looks like a rinse and repeat even down to the crappy little drizzle showers that will creep into SE England tomorrow around 6am again.

I did congratulate the Midlands and NW England along with Wales on Saturday so once again enjoy tonight 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Arome going for another battering for Midlands upto NW England for this evening into tonight and then an MCS moving up through Cumbria into Scotland early hours so can see why Dans forecast has that in the narrative. Looks like a rinse and repeat even down to the crappy little drizzle showers that will creep into SE England tomorrow around 6am again.

I did congratulate the Midlands and NW England along with Wales on Saturday so once again enjoy tonight 

Nothing happened here last night (other than some distant flashes) and I can almost guarantee nothing will happen here today too. So I'm feeling a bit cranky too.

As for later on in the week, the N is shown to largely become more devoid of activity as it starts to focus down S...

Starting to feel I'll get the worst of both ends with this one.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

been woken up by rumbling thunder to the east of me which is the only thing i don't mind been woken up early to. too bad it's moving away but im sure more activity will follow soon 😄

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So predictable that we can have hot weather and high humidity for most of England and yet it’s bloody Scotland and Cumbria that end up with the best storms. 🙄 It’s like when the western isles got battered back in May even though it was about 15 degrees and cloudy all the time.

Life just isn’t fair.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Sth Lincs storm shield in full effect, lol, sun trying to poke through but this high level crud is going to keep the temps surpressed and the easterly breeze still keeping things on the fresh/cooler side.

Worth keeping an eye on the elevated stuff moving up from Essex and E Cambs, looks to be pepping up. Also Dew points to our South and East are in some places 19-20c (very juicy indeed). There could be some surprises as always with meteorology. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Herne Bay Storm Shield still stands here this morning.

Some drops of rain but that's all.

Elsewhere in the Midlands & the NW it's looking good once again.

image.thumb.png.026f54de05d61e53b7c1c92c52e2a545.pngimage.thumb.png.3b666070ef3bf1d14c73130fd89ac9af.png 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

When I saw the storms straddling Blackpool I was hoping for a Nodrog video!

He was definitely out and filming! So I'm sure he will post one at some point.

 

Actually he already has

 

Edited by Southern Storm
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

where abouts is the instability 

Very much worth bearing in mind this is very much subject to change...

E39CD1B5-2364-4B39-82AA-1B3C4CDE1C2B.png

D329058A-E220-4AC7-A1E8-89E8CF3337D4.png

311AA7CF-79A5-42BF-AD94-3998C72DBDBD.png

1D077F49-1F59-4C7A-A70B-254F1564E048.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The small cell over south east Kent is just to my west at the moment, no rain here (just on the edge) but a fair amount of thunder. 
Unfortunately I’m on a team call so can’t go and have a look!

Link to post
Share on other sites

I must be one of few people who don't want storms but seem to be in a locale this year that keeps getting them and this week seems no exception , must have accidentally kicked a black cat or something

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice bit of convection heading for me as I speak just North of Cambridge. No lightning picking up yet though. It's good to see some organised initiation in this zone though, will be interesting to watch over the next few hours. May well fizzle of course... but who knows 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

South east has a eh chance then

Definitely, that has been the case for the past few days really. There has been a ‘chance’ of storms across the SE since Friday, albeit a low one. It has been showing now for a few days, however, of a higher chance midweek.

Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Arome going for another battering for Midlands upto NW England for this evening into tonight and then an MCS moving up through Cumbria into Scotland early hours so can see why Dans forecast has that in the narrative. Looks like a rinse and repeat even down to the crappy little drizzle showers that will creep into SE England tomorrow around 6am again.

I did congratulate the Midlands and NW England along with Wales on Saturday so once again enjoy tonight 

I bet you did it through gritted teeth 😎

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...