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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

as the other's have mentioned, I would take the BBC forecasts with a pinch of salt. everything is chopping and changing at the mo.

Met office having none of thier own forecast

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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Well the stable air mass is moving away from here now sun coming back out again. Had to put the fans back on the rooms cooled down really well this afternoon.

Showing how things change we now have a wet Sunday night and Monday while yesterday GFS had it dry.  It's definatley a nowcast few days coming up.

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Heres a thing. Let's just wait and see what happens on the day, no point running models and charts 3 or 4 days before the event as they will change numerous times before then. Let's just wait and see instead of asking what areas are getting this and what areas getting that? Nobody knows yet, let's all calm down lol

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10 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

No, this is the storms and convective discussion thread, not the expectation management thread... 

Sadly it becomes the depression and counselling thread if nothing happens. So perhaps a bit of keep the feet on the ground is a good idea.

The big bonus is that I'm working from home. I won't have the office staff waggling there fingers at me saying you lot promised storms and nothing happened.

 

Edited by The PIT
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Swathes of AcCas here on the Kent coast...odd pop up storm tonight maybe???

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22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - a load of Betty Swollocks from the usual vibe assassin’s/buzz killingtons in here.

The hint is in the title of the thread and there are thunderstorm warnings out for the UK on three separate days next week. Many folk enjoy the build up by looking at charts/models. (Myself included)

If people are daft enough to believe charts will verify at this range let them get on with it!

I am sure everyone in here is a big boy/girl and can think/read/post for themselves - no-one needs lectured about what to do or not to do with regards to posting/viewing charts. 

Looking forward to viewing this thread over the next five/seven days - should be entertaining. 😀

All the best to you all and let’s hope next week delivers the thunderstorm goods for many of us!

Cheers. 🍻

There may be warnings out already but people get hyped and when the warnings get downgraded or cancelled people then moan on here, that's why I say everyone needs to relax and then see what happens. It's the same thing every time potentially thundery weather is forecast. You get the questions lol. Truth is its too early to speculate and run models especially as I said it will change often before then. Nobody knows at this stage when and where it will thunder so no point guessing. 

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5 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

There may be warnings out already but people get hyped and when the warnings get downgraded or cancelled people then moan on here, that's why I say everyone needs to relax and then see what happens. It's the same thing every time potentially thundery weather is forecast. You get the questions lol. Truth is its too early to speculate and run models especially as I said it will change often before then. Nobody knows at this stage when and where it will thunder so no point guessing. 

We're thrill seekers 🙂 Chasing the weather is like chasing the Jackpot , we keep observing .. hope to get something.. normally we don't .. sometimes we're lucky.. occasionally so lucky that our brains can't comprehend the surprise 🙂
Live for the adventure 🙂

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19 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

We're thrill seekers 🙂 Chasing the weather is like chasing the Jackpot , we keep observing .. hope to get something.. normally we don't .. sometimes we're lucky.. occasionally so lucky that our brains can't comprehend the surprise 🙂
Live for the adventure 🙂

Can't argue with that lol

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image.thumb.png.371eb5e81ccf797866577a93481e7925.png

It looks like some showers have popped in the Channel and are headed NE.

I highly doubt it'll come to much but it's a little teaser for next week.

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had some ac-cas clouds to the east of southampton and it looks like something simular to the south as well but its not looking promising for now to hot and sticky

 

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WRF still refusing to break out any precip Sunday night around my location despite significant CAPE and LI values.

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The "Depression and Counselling" comment made my day. Thank you!

Well, I've got my hopes up for once. Surely three DAYS of nationwide yellow warnings of severe thunderstorms has got to entertain us! 

When not watching the skies, I'll be watching the radars, the sferic maps and the comments. (If I can just see my monitor through the flies, moths and mosquitoes...)

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14 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

The "Depression and Counselling" comment made my day. Thank you!

Well, I've got my hopes up for once. Surely three DAYS of nationwide yellow warnings of severe thunderstorms has got to entertain us! 

When not watching the skies, I'll be watching the radars, the sferic maps and the comments. (If I can just see my monitor through the flies, moths and mosquitoes...)

There other things in your life to do without worrying about weather. 
 

It is usually the unexpected event that is the most interesting. A dump of snow, severe thunderstorm coming out of nowhere or other weather event. 
 

Just get on with life and weather events will occur. Some of the biggest promised events are a complete let down (quite usual really).

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Some of these comments are uncalled for. 

If people get excited over the potential of storms in the coming days, then let them continue to do so. Sometimes things don’t materialise. Disappointment is inevitable. There’s no need for any lectures. 

After all this is a discussion thread. People are bound to talk about what may or may not happen ahead of time.

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35 minutes ago, Snipper said:

There other things in your life to do without worrying about weather. 
 

It is usually the unexpected event that is the most interesting. A dump of snow, severe thunderstorm coming out of nowhere or other weather event. 
 

Just get on with life and weather events will occur. Some of the biggest promised events are a complete let down (quite usual really).

This is the point I am often grasping for... you can read 4 days of charts for day X and each time it will say something wildly different. Not worth worrying about until close to the point it’s due (nowcasting).

Up until then the charts are a guide, and just that. Don’t waste time analysing them to the nth degree, because it’s likely gone in 60 mins, and there a new set of results to study.

Motto: Live life, love storms when/if they happen 😉

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On the topic of disappointment, having an additive personality I have found myself in a seriously bad mood too many times when the storms or snow don’t arrive. When a hobby starts affecting your mental health it’s time to take a step back and remind yourself about what matters! 
 

Looking forward to the coming week after what has been the most boring summer in memory. 

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Anyway, there will be storms that I guarantee 100%.

I can also guarantee that 100%  of people wont get them.

Good luck!

And if you are able to chase and want your guarantee, then do so.

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