Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Yes but I'd always take comments like that with a pinch of salt as there's no real evidence to back it up and this isn't that common a situation either. Far more common to have low pressure sweeping in from the west to break our plume down.

Cautious optimism for the thundery potential IMO. There will of course be many who are disappointed given the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms. I take a keen interest though when the Met Office use the phrase 'severe thunderstorms'. I reckon the forecaster who wrote that was twitching as they couldn't fall back on the safety of 'heavy and possibly thundery showers' 

as long as the storms are during the day whilst im in work i'm happy

[Ben Sainsbury]

Very rarely do we see a hot spell of this magnitude & actually see a heat low develop far south of the UK which is also quite unusual. Since the atmosphere will be more akin to that of somewhere more tropical; will definitely be interesting to see what happens. After some of the unexpected weak convective activity yesterday I'm going into this a little more confident than other setups we've had in which a low approaches from the west like @Steel City Skies said above.

Edited August 8, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Ben Sainsbury]

Not because the latest UKV 9z output is good for me regarding storms or anything...

But Monday late afternoon looking very impressive for CS England into the Midlands & NW England. Pretty much as severe as the UK can get with up to 3000J/Kg of CAPE, close to 25-30knts of DLS, very steep lapse rates & within a very high Theta-E airmass looking at severe thunderstorms and prolific lightning makers.

 

 

[James1979]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

All four cats?

thundercats?

very good!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

32 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Yes but I'd always take comments like that with a pinch of salt as there's no real evidence to back it up and this isn't that common a situation either. Far more common to have low pressure sweeping in from the west to break our plume down.

Cautious optimism for the thundery potential IMO. There will of course be many who are disappointed given the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms. I take a keen interest though when the Met Office use the phrase 'severe thunderstorms'. I reckon the forecaster who wrote that was twitching as they couldn't fall back on the safety of 'heavy and possibly thundery showers' 

Just feels too early to tell. I’m sure that up to about 3 years ago the forecasters were able to make fairly certain predictions as much as 24 hours out and you could be fairly sure they were going to come off. In the last couple of years however it’s been really unpredictable with the forecasts often being quite off with severe elements (in the south-eastern corner in particular).

I just don’t feel the confidence in the storm forecasts that I used to. It’s like something subtle has changed for our area.

As a vague example just look at the number of LOW risks the SE has had this year alone From CW, I’m sure it’s probably a third more than in previous years. Hardly any of these have resulted in lightning in this area. This isn’t a knock at their forecasting, to the contrary it shows just how difficult it’s become to make an accurate prediction, even down to 24-12hr out.

It is for these reasons I do sometimes feel the urge to roll my eyes when people are making judgements about charts that are days from happening. Yes it’s nice to take a look and make comment, but don’t hang your hat - or anything in fact - on them.

 

Look how wildly conflicting they’ve been since yesterday evening... just today we’ve had people predicting a severe outbreak focussed in the northwest, and moments later a claim that the SE is likely to see historically significant storms.

I’m almost tempted to just wait until the nowcasting bit

FWIW looks like the fun begins on Monday night, but up until then it will be pockets of sporadic convection from small elevated disturbances. From thenwards onwards it does indeed look like an exciting week, but you can be sure it will chop and change daily. Let’s wait and see...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I also think we need to refrain from IMBY predictions from the M4 northwards.

South of that is fine though

[BrickFielder]

At the minute I am watching the modelling for late Sunday afternoon. It looks a surface based heat low develops over the South of England late tomorrow afternoon. Forecast SkewT's suggest slow moving very High storms could develop around low level wind convergence zones. The risk here looks to be intense lightning and localized flooding. The problem is this type of surface low is quite hard for models to get right and it may not happen at all or get delayed.

[A.J]

why did I ever decide to move to the NE?.....Stormless capital of the UK 

back down south temps in the 30's with big storms in the offing, up here 17C and more chance of a lottery win than a storm ...lol

Edited August 8, 2020 by A.J

[A Face like Thunder]

BBC yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday covering a wide area of the UK. OK, they're probably covering their backs at this stage, but there must be some justification for issuing these warnings at this early stage.

[kold weather]

I think in going to keep an eye on Tuesday, if the parameters are good still at that point I may well have a little chase of whatever is out there. Will have to see how things progress...especially as thermal lows are horrible to try to forecast!

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

BBC yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday covering a wide area of the UK. OK, they're probably covering their backs at this stage, but there must be some justification for issuing these warnings at this early stage.

met office are going for thundery showers for my area now, instead of thunderstorms, 

[ChezWeather]

What an interesting week we have ahead! I can't get off work on Mon & Tuesday so any chasing will be limited to the evening! 

Hoping for some good storms for everyone especially after such a poor July, even you guys down in the arid desert climate of the South

[tesaro]

 As I think Kold Weather has mentioned, we are entering quite a rare set of circumstances coming together over the coming Days. The development of the Thermal Low over the central Lowlands is unusual in itself. These are usually subtropical features and thus are rare visitors to our near Shores. Think Wintertime Polar Low formation but the other end of the spectrum. There is a huge amount of heat available to feed this System. My thoughts are isolated TS breaking out almost anywhere from Sunday PM onwards. These becoming more widespread and severe as we move into the early part of next Week. As ever, some places will miss out, some places will be pounded by Storm after Storm. Even if you don’t get the rain I imagine there will be few places in the UK that won’t see Lightning flickering away in the distance. This could be what you have all been waiting for. Make the most of it.

[The PIT]

Met office light showers for next week for us Beeb has storms from Tuesday.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Clearing photos off my phone tonight. Diggin our all the tripods and memory cards. Tomorrow I might even try and finally RTFM for the DSLR I got over a year ago

[ChezWeather]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Met office light showers for next week for us Beeb has storms from Tuesday.

Come on PIT, you know by now that those computer generated forecasts are about as much use as a chocolate teapot

9 minutes ago, tesaro said:

 My thoughts are isolated TS breaking out almost anywhere from Sunday PM onwards. These becoming more widespread and severe as we move into the early part of next Week.

Totally agree with this statement! The first action might even kick off tonight into Sunday morning, but from Sunday afternoon onwards it's all eyes to the radar! 

Edited August 8, 2020 by ChezWeather
Spelling

[The PIT]

Sadly the Met Office isn't always far from the mark. BBC total waste of time and good for a laugh.

Interesting very slow clearance coming from the south east where there are slight indications of instability.

Edited August 8, 2020 by The PIT

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sadly the Met Office isn't always far from the mark. BBC total waste of time and good for a laugh.

It will change regularly. It is just another app forecast based on data that will get updated.

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

It will change regularly. It is just another app forecast based on data that will get updated.

Hasn't changed much for the last three days apart from adding north sea rubbish for Sunday morning.

The changes are just liker ecm, GFS, UKMO do from run too run anyway. At the moment I would say don't get too excited yet as there's been bit switches in the modelling from run to run. I would wait for the evening before

Edited August 8, 2020 by The PIT

[Eagle Eye]

how to cure boredom

1)wait untill Sunday

in other words i'm bored

Edited August 8, 2020 by Xanderp009

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

how to cure boredom

1)wait untill Sunday

in other words i'm bored

Thank you Xander, very cool!

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Thank you Xander, very cool!

thanks i guess

[Eagle Eye]

Bbc has Thunderstorms from 22:00 on Wednesday to 6:00 on Friday for me

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Hasn't changed much for the last three days apart from adding north sea rubbish for Sunday morning.

The changes are just liker ecm, GFS, UKMO do from run too run anyway. At the moment I would say don't get too excited yet as there's been bit switches in the modelling from run to run. I would wait for the evening before

I agree. I'm intrigued at the thunderstorm potential, mainly because there's decent scope for some nighttime lightning and multiple chances over the next few days.

I think rather than torturing ourselves with app forecasts we should hang fire and wait for human input from the very educated and appreciated folk who kindly provide detailed outlooks on storm prospects for the day ahead. 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

Bbc has Thunderstorms from 22:00 on Wednesday to 6:00 on Friday for me

as the other's have mentioned, I would take the BBC forecasts with a pinch of salt. everything is chopping and changing at the mo.

@Steel City Skies Namely the legend - Staplehurst, also tony gilbert and our own paul sherman, i'm waiting for the updated met office fax charts to give me a idea. 

Edited August 8, 2020 by viking_smb