Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


Supacell
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

    Yes but I'd always take comments like that with a pinch of salt as there's no real evidence to back it up and this isn't that common a situation either. Far more common to have low pressure sweeping in from the west to break our plume down.

    Cautious optimism for the thundery potential IMO. There will of course be many who are disappointed given the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms. I take a keen interest though when the Met Office use the phrase 'severe thunderstorms'. I reckon the forecaster who wrote that was twitching as they couldn't fall back on the safety of 'heavy and possibly thundery showers' 😁

    as long as the storms are during the day whilst im in work i'm happy

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    Very rarely do we see a hot spell of this magnitude & actually see a heat low develop far south of the UK which is also quite unusual. Since the atmosphere will be more akin to that of somewhere more tropical; will definitely be interesting to see what happens. After some of the unexpected weak convective activity yesterday I'm going into this a little more confident than other setups we've had in which a low approaches from the west like @Steel City Skies said above.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
    1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    All four cats?

    thundercats?

    😂😁very good!!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    32 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

    Yes but I'd always take comments like that with a pinch of salt as there's no real evidence to back it up and this isn't that common a situation either. Far more common to have low pressure sweeping in from the west to break our plume down.

    Cautious optimism for the thundery potential IMO. There will of course be many who are disappointed given the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms. I take a keen interest though when the Met Office use the phrase 'severe thunderstorms'. I reckon the forecaster who wrote that was twitching as they couldn't fall back on the safety of 'heavy and possibly thundery showers' 😁

    Just feels too early to tell. I’m sure that up to about 3 years ago the forecasters were able to make fairly certain predictions as much as 24 hours out and you could be fairly sure they were going to come off. In the last couple of years however it’s been really unpredictable with the forecasts often being quite off with severe elements (in the south-eastern corner in particular).

    I just don’t feel the confidence in the storm forecasts that I used to. It’s like something subtle has changed for our area.

    As a vague example just look at the number of LOW risks the SE has had this year alone From CW, I’m sure it’s probably a third more than in previous years. Hardly any of these have resulted in lightning in this area. This isn’t a knock at their forecasting, to the contrary it shows just how difficult it’s become to make an accurate prediction, even down to 24-12hr out.

    It is for these reasons I do sometimes feel the urge to roll my eyes when people are making judgements about charts that are days from happening. Yes it’s nice to take a look and make comment, but don’t hang your hat - or anything in fact - on them.

     

    Look how wildly conflicting they’ve been since yesterday evening... just today we’ve had people predicting a severe outbreak focussed in the northwest, and moments later a claim that the SE is likely to see historically significant storms.

    I’m almost tempted to just wait until the nowcasting bit 😅

    FWIW looks like the fun begins on Monday night, but up until then it will be pockets of sporadic convection from small elevated disturbances. From thenwards onwards it does indeed look like an exciting week, but you can be sure it will chop and change daily. Let’s wait and see...

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    why did I ever decide to move to the NE?.....Stormless capital of the UK 

    back down south temps in the 30's with big storms in the offing, up here 17C and more chance of a lottery win than a storm ...lol

    Edited by A.J
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

    BBC yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday covering a wide area of the UK. OK, they're probably covering their backs at this stage, but there must be some justification for issuing these warnings at this early stage.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I think in going to keep an eye on Tuesday, if the parameters are good still at that point I may well have a little chase of whatever is out there. Will have to see how things progress...especially as thermal lows are horrible to try to forecast!

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    2 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

    BBC yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday covering a wide area of the UK. OK, they're probably covering their backs at this stage, but there must be some justification for issuing these warnings at this early stage.

    met office are going for thundery showers for my area now, instead of thunderstorms, 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    What an interesting week we have ahead! I can't get off work on Mon & Tuesday so any chasing will be limited to the evening! 

    Hoping for some good storms for everyone especially after such a poor July, even you guys down in the arid desert climate of the South😉

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Met office light showers for next week for us Beeb has storms from Tuesday.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

    Clearing photos off my phone tonight. Diggin our all the tripods and memory cards. Tomorrow I might even try and finally RTFM for the DSLR I got over a year ago 😅

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
    8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Met office light showers for next week for us Beeb has storms from Tuesday.

    Come on PIT, you know by now that those computer generated forecasts are about as much use as a chocolate teapot😉

    9 minutes ago, tesaro said:

     My thoughts are isolated TS breaking out almost anywhere from Sunday PM onwards. These becoming more widespread and severe as we move into the early part of next Week.

    Totally agree with this statement! The first action might even kick off tonight into Sunday morning, but from Sunday afternoon onwards it's all eyes to the radar! 

    Edited by ChezWeather
    Spelling
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sadly the Met Office isn't always far from the mark. BBC total waste of time and good for a laugh.

    Interesting very slow clearance coming from the south east where there are slight indications of instability.

    Edited by The PIT
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Sadly the Met Office isn't always far from the mark. BBC total waste of time and good for a laugh.

    It will change regularly. It is just another app forecast based on data that will get updated.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

    It will change regularly. It is just another app forecast based on data that will get updated.

    Hasn't changed much for the last three days apart from adding north sea rubbish for Sunday morning.

    The changes are just liker ecm, GFS, UKMO do from run too run anyway. At the moment I would say don't get too excited yet as there's been bit switches in the modelling from run to run. I would wait for the evening before

    Edited by The PIT
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    how to cure boredom

    1)wait untill Sunday

    in other words i'm bored

    Edited by Xanderp009
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

    how to cure boredom

    1)wait untill Sunday

    in other words i'm bored

    Thank you Xander, very cool!

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, Zak M said:

    Thank you Xander, very cool!

    thanks i guess

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Bbc has Thunderstorms from 22:00 on Wednesday to 6:00 on Friday for me

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Hasn't changed much for the last three days apart from adding north sea rubbish for Sunday morning.

    The changes are just liker ecm, GFS, UKMO do from run too run anyway. At the moment I would say don't get too excited yet as there's been bit switches in the modelling from run to run. I would wait for the evening before

    I agree. I'm intrigued at the thunderstorm potential, mainly because there's decent scope for some nighttime lightning and multiple chances over the next few days.

    I think rather than torturing ourselves with app forecasts we should hang fire and wait for human input from the very educated and appreciated folk who kindly provide detailed outlooks on storm prospects for the day ahead. 

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

    Bbc has Thunderstorms from 22:00 on Wednesday to 6:00 on Friday for me

    as the other's have mentioned, I would take the BBC forecasts with a pinch of salt. everything is chopping and changing at the mo.

    @Steel City Skies Namely the legend - Staplehurst, also tony gilbert and our own paul sherman, i'm waiting for the updated met office fax charts to give me a idea. 

    Edited by viking_smb
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...