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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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11 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Not sure if it's been posted already as it's so busy in here but for those of us in the south this may be of interest

image.thumb.png.378c51d6c6eef49cdaaf9e345a5483c9.pngimage.thumb.png.de23253680e5968b36e8076b9ed66526.png

i want that to hit where i am southampton the night before my 32nd it would be a nice way to go into it 😄

 

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Some instibility now coming in from the south. I'm just to the north of Snowdonia. 

8F213B41-9723-4104-B1E8-F5AC2C5DBC1A.jpeg

094903D3-38BC-4970-8F5D-30FA22F7C335.jpeg

Edited by Liam Ellis
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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Got a PDS in the POS too just to the west of me

Am liaising with my colleagues in the Triangle of Doom at the moment in case it creeps up the coast and joins forces with the dastardly Sea Mist 😳😳

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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Could this be an area to keep an eye on?

 

image.png

just on the edge of that, and as they used to say its gone black over bills mothers, really dark sky now, but no action yet, I have watched the whole lot form over this area and drift slowly north west

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2 minutes ago, jake44 said:

image.thumb.png.784ea5f13ed9c383f16179764540dbbf.pngkeeping my eye on them 2 storms fingers crossed

The one on the left is worth watching but the other one is so far away it's in Belgium. It won't make it here.

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For whatever reason today, storms away from the extreme south west and wales, have no sustainability. Doesn’t set a promising tone for the rest of the week.

For all of those crying ‘Midlands and NW again’ today, western facing coasts got the best of it all. Which is very odd compared to usual set ups. 
 

Let’s see what tomorrow brings, but today with all the parameters and forecasts, estofex on board etc, it’s been very poor.

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

For whatever reason today, storms away from the extreme south west and wales, have no sustainability. Doesn’t set a promising tone for the rest of the week.

For all of those crying ‘Midlands and NW again’ today, western facing coasts got the best of it all. Which is very odd compared to usual set ups. 
 

Let’s see what tomorrow brings, but today with all the parameters and forecasts, estofex on board etc, it’s been very poor today.

More in the way of windshear down there I believe, which made them more organised and sustained, but lost intensity as they moved away from the unstable areas. You need that overlap of decent shear and explosive CAPE with a trigger to get the jackpot. 

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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

That cell coming off France looks like it’s just going to clip Dungeness if it keep the same track and intensity  

Darn too far west, Hope I might see some Lightning in the channel

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A lot of talk about the CoS and ToD, but don't forget the Shield of Resistance down here. It has been fully engaged for 1171 days.

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9 severe warnings this summer for my area. 9 times we haven't even had a drop of rain. This is why I don't get hyped with forecast charts, models, trends etc... Because 110% of the time they get moved away from area, downgraded and eventually removed altogether, even the ones that are still active never come to fruition. That's why I don't take much notice of when people put models on here as ludicrous as 4 days ahead of the so called 'events'. 

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