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Supacell

Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Some cells popping up in Northern France now. Lively one to the West of Rennes in NW France. Strikes from that. Worth keeping an eye on. 

Hopefully not surface based - or if they are and have some longevity about them, that they can sustain a transition to elevated if they do drift northwards

Edited by Harry
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3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Can't see where the Met Offices storm threat between 6 and 7pm is going to materialise from, hazy sun and small lumps of cloud floating around for all the eyes can see. Temp at its highest point all day - 28.2C.

Aye missing our area, can see anvil to the NW

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For the worriers. The upper trough that's moving through Somerset could spark off storms ahead of it. 

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Just now, DIS1970 said:

Can't see where the Met Offices storm threat between 6 and 7pm is going to materialise from, hazy sun and small lumps of cloud floating around for all the eyes can see. Temp at its highest point all day - 28.2C.

If you’re talking about the midlands it’s probably from an area of convergence which could spark things off along the M4. This possibility probably runs until about 8pm latest, after which it’s probably a missed opportunity.

Thankfully there’s a good few chances this week for the midlands southwards, but in these situations I always want at least one of the two first opportunities to work out - otherwise you’re increasingly clutching at straws. So despite the further potential we really want today to show form.

The atmosphere really is primed for something significant, so it’s a crying shame to see it wasted 😬 

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Im not seeing a whole lot of lightning from that storms over northwest Wales, though it could be elevated and the raincurtain is obscuring the view. One things for sure though, I wouldn't want to be walking the Llywbr Arfordir Cymru around Penmaenmawr at the moment.

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If i remember last nights model runs (or the mad one anyway) the energy explodes north of the stuff arriving in the south this evening. Not seeing it much now (a clear area of instability on sat but not unzipping that much). 

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I’m wondering is the Southampton activity is going to spawn an MCS-type affair that will rattle up through West Mids and gradually lose intensity north of Manchester/liverpool

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Sat outside between Gloucester and Cheltenham and it's the most oppressive it's been all day. Sky pretty much clouded over and feels very stormy. Keeping everything crossed but not sure what my chances are 🤞

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Storms tumbled all morning and stopped about 2 ish. Do we reckon that Swansea will get anything else this evening 

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50 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

guess we will miss todays fun

I'm pretty lucky I have a 2 week holiday booked in the West, I reckon Lincolnshire will deffo get something this week but perhaps around Wednesday or Thursday

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Been in Liverpool all morning, but just got back to north west Wales (around 2 miles north of Snowdon) and we've just had one hell of a great thunderstorm. Continuous rumbling and flashing. 

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Tower going up N NW of me adjusted the color to show it better

IMG_20200810_171441.jpg

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

Hopefully not surface based

You must know more than me as I have to ask, how come? 

I thought surface-based storms were potentially more powerful than elevated storms, and were more likely to contain strong updraughts and rotation to potentially spawn tornadoes? 

Is this something to do with our friend the English channel killing off any surface-based storms?! 

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Just now, UKSupercell said:

You must know more than me as I have to ask, how come? 

I thought surface-based storms were potentially more powerful than elevated storms, and were more likely to contain strong updraughts and rotation to potentially spawn tornadoes? 

Is this something to do with our friend the English channel killing off any surface-based storms?! 

The channel should be nice and warm (kind of like a hot and dangerous bath, but with islands in it) so I would have also thought something surface from the continent will probably do alright. It’ll probably partially become elevated by the time it reaches the water anyway

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I wonder if the seabreezes have killed that storm as it goes out towards Llandudno/Anglesey because I havent seen a flash of lightning on webcam for a while now..

If its anything like here it's getting pretty chilly now.. in fact, if it keeps dropping we could see fog developing as the dewpoint and temperature are almost equal right now, not to forget the 850hPa temperature is about 16-17C so not far off being equal in all lower layers of the atmosphere. I don't know what that means in this situation but the storms do *seem* to be dying out as they hit the cooler coastal air.

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16 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s all hedging of bets, basically. I have enough admin and stuff to do to keep occupied, but I wanted to get northwards of any likely initiation zones for the really juicy stuff. Now I’m here I can relax. So hot sitting in the van, and driving about is kind of pointless until I know where to head...

From here it’s approx 2 hrs back down south which is great if there’s a surprise import in store for later, in the meantime it’s just a case of keeping an eye on the radar and working out where to go for my govt discount dinner 😝

Sounds like you've organised well to be honest, fair play mate. Ha ha may as well rinse Rishi's dishis for all their worth! 

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Definately something brewing east of me in Southampton. It's over Portsmouth possibly just North. Will try and grab a photo. 

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Just normal rain coming up the South and west And humid and muggy and sticky and now cloudy wich and tomorrow it is 35. C  in the south and west and I hope see a thunderstorm tomorrow or later to night as Wiltshire is the yellow weather warning for thunderstorms. 

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still 22°C here, sea-breeze is not affecting me much.. Loads of lightning on radio sounds much closer than it is,must be powerful

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Will probs see the clouds rolling in more soon, too bright to see any distant lightning from here though  

image.png

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Great to see / read reports from areas hit today with storms. North Wales seems  the place to be right now! 

 

But gutted that I'm out of any major warning zones. Hasn't been particularly humid or hot here. 

 

What's the outlook for storms moving north this evening or am I clutching at many straws now?  Would love to see something up here in the north east.

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