Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[ChannelThunder]

18 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

this line?.... could lead to something huge maybe

Classic drizzle

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

I’ve got a raging thunderstorm headache come on all of a sudden - it’s more humid than it has been and it’s currently 32C...

There's a shower that's just developed to my North, sure it's moving away ,. but the entire sky is cloudy ,. the whole valleys are shrouded in a thin hazy mist, it's almost like the feeling I am having wearing a mask on the bus.  

[Zak M]

Just noticed a cumulus tower to my east 

[Frosty hollows]

37 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 Yesterday evening about 8pm I was watching birds soaring on thermals which is pretty unusual for that time of day. Old folklore suggests that this heralds thunderstorms coming in the next few days.
 Its clear that there will be some pretty heavy elevated thunderstorms for the south west and up through Wales ongoing through much of the day. There is also a chance of surface based storms which is a bit marginal.Looking at the sounding for Nottingham overnight then it suggests temperatures in the region of 32/33 degrees providing there is a trigger could produce quite nasty surface based storms. The modelling suggest some low level wind convergence as a triggering event possibly around the M4 and Oxford. Looking at the latest wind flows across the UK suggests the forecast for these convergences is not unreasonable. Most models are not that keen on this and forecasts suggest that temperatures may just not quite reach the point of surface based convection.

In that M4/Oxford gap. We're nudging 30 here already.  Today may well be like yesterday, and temps were still rising at 5pm, finally peaking at 32. Whether this with some low level convergence will break the cap, watch this space

[tomp456]

Being on the west Sussex coast, the AROME model is my bae at the moment. 

Going to hope for a decent light show at least! 

Edited August 10, 2020 by tomp456

[StormChaseUK]

I'd say the attached is close to the mark.    The moisture out to the west meeting the heat to the east, perfect battleground

[ancientsolar]

Not that much Of an impressive photo , but I’m suffocating under it 

 

Cloud haze and humidity , 
 

so I’m under that red blob this evening !

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I'd say the attached is close to the mark.    The moisture out to the west meeting the heat to the east, perfect battleground

 

[Sky Full]

The distant rumbling and banging has returned but looking at the radar it seems this second stormy pulse is going to pass well to the east of this location.  Carmarthen and Newcastle Emlyn could be in for an interesting hour or so with heavy rain showing on the radar.  It’s also still raining here though and very humid but 100% overcast with low visibility so I’m unlikely to see the lightning unless it gets very close!

[Sparkiee storm]

Approaching 27c here and extremely muggy, later this afternoon and this evening is gonna be unbearable, hoping we break the 30 - 32c cap for those juicy SB storms to pop off. The first time ive saw the haze in the skies horizon this year too.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Sparkiee storm

[Zak M]

 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Classic drizzle

Actually that line over Cherbourg is now showing signs on coming to life, a little bit of convection returning slightly heavier radar returns.....

[Chris Lea-Alex]

8 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

In that M4/Oxford gap. We're nudging 30 here already.  Today may well be like yesterday, and temps were still rising at 5pm, finally peaking at 32. Whether this with some low level convergence will break the cap, watch this space

By my reckoning, the forecasted 32° area runs up to about Banbury at 4pm:

Temperature maps for United Kingdom - forecast.co.uk

M.FORECAST.CO.UK

---

Interactive map with changes in temperature in United Kingdom. Predictions for today and the coming days.

Chiltern hills might create a little lift

 

[AMeltedFlake]

Best website for checking current temperatures?

[Pat Butcher]

13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just noticed a cumulus tower to my east 

Hope you’ve got your tornado shelter prepped, looks like a nasty one.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

drizzle?.... its strengthening

[T4Toby]

Have a feeling that that is all we are going to get in the SW today. The rain has cooled  the air dramatically now at 19.1c. Also looks like a pretty sturdy layer of cloud cover so no signs of it increasing 

[UKSupercell]

So where does everyone think is a good place to head to for these potential severe storms? 

I am in south Bucks at present only 5 mins from the M40 and randomly picked a small town called Church Stretton between Ludlow and Shrewsbury on the English-Welsh border. Would take about 2hr30. Alternatively I could reach Cannock in 2hrs but it seems the direction of thunderstorms is currently NW rather than NE...? 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

19 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just noticed a cumulus tower to my east 

That matches one I’ve seen on radar over the Slovak ski resort of Jahodna...

Surprised it isn’t clearer

[oliverek7]

I like AROME at the minute. SE action tomorrow afternoon on last two runs

Edited August 10, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, UKSupercell said:

So where does everyone think is a good place to head to for these potential severe storms? 

I am in south Bucks at present only 5 mins from the M40 and randomly picked a small town called Church Stretton between Ludlow and Shrewsbury on the English-Welsh border. Would take about 2hr30. Alternatively I could reach Cannock in 2hrs but it seems the direction of thunderstorms is currently NW rather than NE...? 

 

I’m near Stokenchurch. Headed as far as Gaydon / Warwick on the M40 and then waiting it out there probably. The severest zone is basically the M40 end-to-end so if you’re on that you’re pretty good

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

So where does everyone think is a good place to head to for these potential severe storms? 

I am in south Bucks at present only 5 mins from the M40 and randomly picked a small town called Church Stretton between Ludlow and Shrewsbury on the English-Welsh border. Would take about 2hr30. Alternatively I could reach Cannock in 2hrs but it seems the direction of thunderstorms is currently NW rather than NE...? 

 

Not sure we still need to hit 30-32'c for initiation to occur, I'm a little more confident of hitting it than earlier so I'm still going to head between Worcester & Stoke-on-Trent.

Further north would be ideal but I cba to travel further.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

So where does everyone think is a good place to head to for these potential severe storms? 

I am in south Bucks at present only 5 mins from the M40 and randomly picked a small town called Church Stretton between Ludlow and Shrewsbury on the English-Welsh border. Would take about 2hr30. Alternatively I could reach Cannock in 2hrs but it seems the direction of thunderstorms is currently NW rather than NE...? 

 

Even if you dont get any storms there   little Switzerland Is lovely     

[ChannelThunder]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Actually that line over Cherbourg is now showing signs on coming to life, a little bit of convection returning slightly heavier radar returns.....

Sometimes my jinxes can work

[Zak M]

12 minutes ago, Pat Butcher said:

Hope you’ve got your tornado shelter prepped, looks like a nasty one.

[SalopWatcher]

11 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

So where does everyone think is a good place to head to for these potential severe storms? 

I am in south Bucks at present only 5 mins from the M40 and randomly picked a small town called Church Stretton between Ludlow and Shrewsbury on the English-Welsh border. Would take about 2hr30. Alternatively I could reach Cannock in 2hrs but it seems the direction of thunderstorms is currently NW rather than NE...? 

 

Lovely part of the world... lots of chances to get up on the hills and a better view... and 20 mins up to Shrewsbury and the A5 and speedy routes east west and north if on a chase.