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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

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Some cumulus bubbling inland (just east of Exeter).

IMG_20200813_115752983.thumb.jpg.0717cb73a692ab96fa55565828dd1a5d.jpg

looks like some action may be a bit closer to home today though sea breeze likely to keep my actual location clear of surface based convection

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2 hours ago, Lance M said:

Happy to hear we have a few more shortwaves around today to keep things hopefully very interesting! Out of interest, are there any sites (other than fax charts) that show you where the shortwaves are? Unless I'm missing something, I don't seem to recall ever seeing a live and/or model view of them.

sorry for late reply, just catching up - some are rather tricky to identify as they occur at different levels. In general look for areas of PVA (positive vorticity advection) at 500mb is a good starting guide, and also pockets of slightly colder temperatures or troughing to the isobars at various mid-levels

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If not already posted:

 

TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2020/008

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued at 1050BST on Thusday 13th August 2020

Valid from/until: 1050-0600BST on Thursday 13th/Friday 14th August 2020

for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Ireland:

The Midlands, E Anglia and S England

Wales

Southern Eire

THREATS

Hail to 20-30mm diamater; wind gusts to 50mph; frequent CG lightning; flash flooding; isolated tornadoes

SYNOPSIS

A very warm and humid airmass remains across the area, with several short-wave troughs moving WNW across the region throughout today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period - initially more elevated across parts of the Midlands this morning, but some surface-based storms will form this afternoon too, especially along convergence zones. Several clusters should form, with large hail and strong winds, as well as a risk of flash flooding. Isolated tornadoes are possible along convergence zones.

Overnight, further showers and storms, mainly elevated, will move W across the area, with hail and flash-flooding possible.

Forecaster: RPK

image.thumb.png.e5504c7738fb0cda3412859128030656.png

 

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Temp just dropped 26 to 23. DP 19 and pressure now rising whereas it was falling. 

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20 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That’s a lot of non-thundery cloud over the midlands. Meanwhile hot in Sutton and clouds building at the coast. Estimating initiation over the far SE of London approx 2pm. Somewhere near the A3, perhaps

Would prefer near the A2, but we'll see 🙂

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Heading towards the south coast now and seeing some serious convection going on inland ahead of the channel storms. Really looks like it’s gonna fire up big time

F5435D97-3CEE-4568-90D3-3321A778B3E3.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Clearly the Met Office can’t make their minds up with the amount of warning update notifications I’ve had in the last few days...

was to expand the time until midday as they said thunderstorms could last longer.

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I'm quite happy with how things are panning out at the moment. A complex one, but I think later does hold some good opportunities.

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16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm just wondering if cloud cover could be a real problem today in the south (if not one thing its another) lots of mid level crappiness advecting in from the ESE just as temps are getting into the mid 20s, we really need to drive them up another 3-5C and need the sun......

Yes temps not high enough and looking very poor for you in bournemouth, much cooler for the rest of august as well...

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52 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

I dont think we will see a release of energy like yesterday, I mean that was outstanding, constant rumble - uninterrupted.

1 in decade event, sady I missed out, just on the edge

Yes, think it initiated your way and picked up more energy as it left here as the thunder and lightning really got going as it moved away. We got plenty of well needed rain!

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Not expecting anything too dramatic here, just rain, maybe one or two rumbles - if it reaches my location of course, N Wolverhampton, last 3 days were good enough.

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2 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

Temp just dropped 26 to 23. DP 19 and pressure now rising whereas it was falling. 

Sea breeze? It’s just dropped from 27°C to 25°C here but doesn’t feel any less humid than it did before. 

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'm quite happy with how things are panning out at the moment. A complex one, but I think later does hold some good opportunities.

I reckon its just gunna be the Premier League left with the COS & TOD vying it our like City and Liverpool, you and Chris are in trouble buddy lol

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Temps  struggling to make 22C here. 

I want my heat back please.

Oh, and some light drizzle lasting about 5 mins as that's just about all I seem to get. 

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Just now, matt111 said:

Sea breeze? It’s just dropped from 27°C to 25°C here but doesn’t feel any less humid than it did before. 

It’s still

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm quite happy with how things are panning out at the moment. A complex one, but I think later does hold some good opportunities.

for the south east?....

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Couple of shots from yesterday evening.

221666130_DSC_0161(2).thumb.jpg.8c68d4cb0ca2ab4dc3ad5bcca653d58d.jpg1524561870_DSC_0163(2).thumb.jpg.29a33ecb89ccd09c6728ff78bb09eb42.jpg

I had the focus out on the lightning shots which was a shame. So I chose the one that looked the best.

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Some more showers bubbling up on the East Sussex coast moving NW. Hopefully that bodes well

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23 minutes ago, Harry said:

Where I’ll be on the north side 😫 AROME offers us a smidge of hope @Paul Sherman for this evening 🤞

Just 1 rogue run Harry and not buying it at all at the moment, I reckon it has the congervence zone in the wrong place from its starting point and it will be way way to the West, Lets see from early afternoon obs

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Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Just 1 rogue run Harry and not buying it at all at the moment, I reckon it has the congervence zone in the wrong place from its starting point and it will be way way to the West, Lets see from early afternoon obs

Never have I wished you more wrong 🤣

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Looks like a tasty little convergence zone setting up. Sea breeze has set up expect Southampton and Bournemouth to go southerly in the next hour or so....

 

 

Annotation 2020-08-13 121427.png

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37 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Sorry yh that was for the SE mainly but yes Taunton looks good as well.

The killer for tomorrow is the Arome was showing a Convergence zone like the Thames Snow Streamers we get in the winters on an ENE Wind but if cloudy thats gone as well

You've got me interested now Paul. 😂

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Anyone concerned about that cloud steaming in from the south east?

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