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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

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Is @Zak M awake? If not, he certainly will be in a minute.

He's racking up some total of storms this year , most of them grown in the COS to his SE.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I get what your saying about the heat etc but the heat imo is not really as important as you think, it’s all the other conditions that count too, I mean look where most of the storms have occurred in the last few days, Scotland and the nw and wales etc, yes these places have been very warm but not as hot as the se where it’s been pretty dry.

i think many that haven’t had much may be in for a surprise later today

Reading some of the forecasts I think we’re not really expecting much other than some standard thundery stuff (if we’re lucky). Sorry I’ve just been bitten too many times with this particular week of weather and I just don’t trust any of the optimism any more

 

Edit: I don’t know what happened there with my phone I was using predictive text

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Nope nothing more than a 5 minute dusting of rain and have taken a pic to show you how much it wetted the ground the radar very deceiving in these elevated showers and absolutely silent in the Cone 

Onto 2021 

IMG_20200813_085734.jpg

we need to arrange a huge set of coaches and do a netweather road trip

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Just now, Lance M said:

Is @Zak M awake? If not, he certainly will be in a minute.

He's racking up some total of storms this year , most of them grown in the COS to his SE.

Yep. Woke up just now. Can't see anything yet as I'm plagued my North Sea crud...

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Yep. Woke up just now. Can't see anything yet as I'm plagued my North Sea crud...

You know yesterday said the cell will die over se and strengthen in east anglia .... heh- look at the radar ;-;

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Where's my heatwave gone? What's this N'ly wind rubbish? 

What do I look forward to now - the dreaded "thundery rain"? I agree with Paul Sherman - onto to 2021 (probably for much of the same). 

 

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6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

same here , yesterday was the last of the scorching days and today the last of the just about 30c days after this it's more mid 20's at best , also hoping that stuff near Luton doesn't make it here

I know how you feel, Gordon... even though, these days I tend to open all the windows and enjoy a good thunderstorm, I still wake-up in a cold sweat, whenever thunder, lightning or torrential rain disturbs my sleep... I guess there's a bit of the brontophobe in all of us?

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Interesting line structure development, might see some gusty winds and a shelf possibly 

Screenshot_20200813-090823_Chrome.jpg

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Level2 from estofex.

 

Today is gonna be interesting!!

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Waiting for this thing in the SE to give me a last minute swerve again. Just started raining at least. Expecting the white shading to go to the north though, as it went to the south yesterday. 

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9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yep. Woke up just now. Can't see anything yet as I'm plagued my North Sea crud...

Must be The Wash, Zak... Over here, it's dry, sunny, 20C and as humid as flock!💦

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19 minutes ago, oliverek7 said:

Is anyone inside those cells N/NE of London?

Just started raining in LB. Hoping for better than the poor effort yesterday! Very dark. 

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2 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Today is gonna be interesting!!

Indeed! I've just painted a wall, so that I can watch it dry!:crazy:

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3 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Just started raining in LB. Hoping for better than the poor effort yesterday! Very dark. 

Did you get much in the end yesterday? 

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19 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

That bid,red thunderless blob is heading my way and I'm about to do an outdoor Bootcamp! Wishme luck 😂

That came over the top of us here in Maidenhead about an hour ago. Moderate thunder which oddly didn't show up on blitzorg. But it did deliver a gutter overwhelming quantity of rain, it was lovely.

Sadly looks like it is fading now.

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Just now, saint said:

Did you get much in the end yesterday? 

Nah. Steady rain, bit of thunder, one loud one. Basically the main action was on a NW course right for us, then took a left turn  across the Chilterns. Picked up an Easterly by the looks. 

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26 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I get what your saying about the heat etc but the heat imo is not really as important as you think, it’s all the other conditions that count too, I mean look where most of the storms have occurred in the last few days, Scotland and the nw and wales etc, yes these places have been very warm but not as hot as the se where it’s been pretty dry.

i think many that haven’t had much may be in for a surprise later today

I tend to agree.

Also whilst instability isn't quite as high tomorrow it's still a very workable amount with Arome for example suggesting close to 1000 Cape for the south at peak heating.

With that being said obviously the further south and east you go the less likely you are as initiation in these flows maybe too far NW unless convergence lines line up for you. Hard to call at this point.

Anything moving up from France appears to be rather poor based on the models sadly.

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Worth noting, today isn't a particularly simple setup - there will be a succession of shortwaves rotating northwest then west from the Continent which will aid both elevated activity (as we are seeing in East Anglia right now) but also surface-based developments. And so it seems likely that 'surprise' thunderstorms will keep cropping up quite late into the evening across some southern parts of England, well after daytime heating, and then a signal towards the end of the night (much like last night) for north Norfolk towards E Lincs.

 

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And boom, there it is, gone, heat been replaced overnight with low cloud, northerly wind and a much cooler feel, not a storm or drop of rain.

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Just now, staplehurst said:

Worth noting, today isn't a particularly simple setup - there will be a succession of shortwaves rotating northwest then west from the Continent which will aid both elevated activity (as we are seeing in East Anglia right now) but also surface-based developments. And so it seems likely that 'surprise' thunderstorms will keep cropping up quite late into the evening across some southern parts of England, well after daytime heating, and then a signal towards the end of the night (much like last night) for north Norfolk towards E Lincs.

 

Happy to hear we have a few more shortwaves around today to keep things hopefully very interesting! Out of interest, are there any sites (other than fax charts) that show you where the shortwaves are? Unless I'm missing something, I don't seem to recall ever seeing a live and/or model view of them.

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Posted (edited)

Just heard my first rumble. Lightning detector picked up the strike too.

Edit: Another one.

Edited by Zak M
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12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Must be The Wash, Zak... Over here, it's dry, sunny, 20C and as humid as flock!💦

Of this I can confirm for our high on a hill friend, but if you see anything to the SE of us brewing, bit hard as we’re so close to the coast, let us know @Zak M 🤪

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it's going to be six degrees cooler today for many. Tomorrow will be ten degrees cooler than it was yesturday.

 

All I ask is West London be storm free from 2-4pm .

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Even this far inland the sun just can't burn this rubbish off.

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