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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

See we are already looking at today being a downgrade on earlier days, and we’re losing the top end of the heat - relying once again on the next few days to provide that all-elusive convective ‘event’.

Reading Dan’s writeup I’m not massively confident about the chances for southern counties. The all-night storms we were seeing forecasted keep disappearing, and now we are seeing increased cloud each day whereas we had fine conditions for the best part of a week.

This is precisely why it bothers me when the first opportunity busts in a situation where it’s several days of predicted severe weather. You then clutch straws for a second and invariably that fails and after that you’re desperate for anything.

I have a bad feeling that come Monday we will just have had visiting thundery showers and the odd sporadic storm, then for the south we will be looking at settled conditions for the next 6 months.

REALLY REALLY hope I’m wrong 😕

The latest satellite shows clouds and mist burning back rather quickly today. Currently behind the storms and shwiers in London clearer skies and sunshine will move in. It was all to bw expected but as the case with morning cruddy convection we know it clears quickly. Anyway still showing 28-29c on most charts. As someone mentioned recently maybe the extreme high temperatures is the very thing stopping more thunderstorms from breaking out (stronger  cap) and lack of elements. Theres still a chance today dont get yourself down and out.

Edited by Justin1705
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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

See we are already looking at today being a downgrade on earlier days, and we’re losing the top end of the heat - relying once again on the next few days to provide that all-elusive convective ‘event’.

Reading Dan’s writeup I’m not massively confident about the chances for southern counties. The all-night storms we were seeing forecasted keep disappearing, and now we are seeing increased cloud each day whereas we had fine conditions for the best part of a week.

This is precisely why it bothers me when the first opportunity busts in a situation where it’s several days of predicted severe weather. You then clutch straws for a second and invariably that fails and after that you’re desperate for anything.

I have a bad feeling that come Monday we will just have had visiting thundery showers and the odd sporadic storm, then for the south we will be looking at settled conditions for the next 6 months.

REALLY REALLY hope I’m wrong 😕

Since my despondent post (and whilst no where near my favourite model in terms of accuracy) the UKMO projections (and possibly the UKV therefore) quite keen on storms through the day for my area. Euro4 and WRF-NMM keep it north or west, although the latter is generous with the MUCAPE. NetWx having none of it for the SE at all. All in all still rather negative sadly.

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9 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

Currently melting in South east not a cloud in the sky and bet we get nothing from it 

I'll raise you your melting, with a Spontaneous Combustion 😛 

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Dan's forecast are usually bang one, however kiss of death is being under an ESTOFEX Level 2. That probably happened 5 times or so previously and not once have I seen storm.....SOR is fully charged and ready to rumble - that's actually quite contradictory 🙂

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3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, Harry, I quite agree... And the Beeb's app-thingie's forecast of 'thundery showers from 11am onwards' is looking more and more like a 'pile of shi'ite'!

My phone app still quite optimistic from 15:00 and through the evening, but that changes it’s mind all of the time! Still, it’s a slightly better chance day today than yesterday and the day before...but not optimistic

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Good ol' @staplehurst has been working overtime on these tricky forecasts all week! I for one am forever grateful for the outlooks. I'm almost glad in hindsight the weather gave him an easier time in most of July. I hope he gets some kind of financial gain from running his site.

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OK I'm terrified of storms so follow this thread as I trust your guys judgements and forecasts/now casts 😂 however, what I would give for that after storm freshness right now down in Worthing, I canny cope with this heat anymore. 

 

Edit: current temp 23.6

Edited by Thunderbuddy92
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9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

See we are already looking at today being a downgrade on earlier days, and we’re losing the top end of the heat - relying once again on the next few days to provide that all-elusive convective ‘event’.

Reading Dan’s writeup I’m not massively confident about the chances for southern counties. The all-night storms we were seeing forecasted keep disappearing, and now we are seeing increased cloud each day whereas we had fine conditions for the best part of a week.

This is precisely why it bothers me when the first opportunity busts in a situation where it’s several days of predicted severe weather. You then clutch straws for a second and invariably that fails and after that you’re desperate for anything.

I have a bad feeling that come Monday we will just have had visiting thundery showers and the odd sporadic storm, then for the south we will be looking at settled conditions for the next 6 months.

REALLY REALLY hope I’m wrong 😕

I get what your saying about the heat etc but the heat imo is not really as important as you think, it’s all the other conditions that count too, I mean look where most of the storms have occurred in the last few days, Scotland and the nw and wales etc, yes these places have been very warm but not as hot as the se where it’s been pretty dry.

i think many that haven’t had much may be in for a surprise later today

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I get what your saying about the heat etc but the heat imo is not really as important as you think, it’s all the other conditions that count too, I mean look where most of the storms have occurred in the last few days, Scotland and the nw and wales etc, yes these places have been very warm but not as hot as the se where it’s been pretty dry.

i think many that haven’t had much may be in for a surprise later today

Yep  Good point    For me it certainly favours the south today   anything south of Worcester  may be in for a nice show.    fingers crossed

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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Whats that on radar @Paul Sherman has the COS been caught napping? 

Nope nothing more than a 5 minute dusting of rain and have taken a pic to show you how much it wetted the ground the radar very deceiving in these elevated showers and absolutely silent in the Cone 

Onto 2021 

IMG_20200813_085734.jpg

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Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Nope nothing more than a 5 minute dusting of rain and have taken a pic to show you how much it wetted the ground the radar very deceiving in these elevated showers and absolutely silent in the Cone 

Onto 2021 

IMG_20200813_085734.jpg

Blimey, better get the sandbags 😆

Edited by Calayte
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7 minutes ago, Thunderbuddy92 said:

OK I'm terrified of storms so follow this thread as I trust your guys judgements and forecasts/now casts 😂 however, what I would give for that after storm freshness right now down in Worthing, I canny cope with this heat anymore. 

same here , yesterday was the last of the scorching days and today the last of the just about 30c days after this it's more mid 20's at best , also hoping that stuff near Luton doesn't make it here

Edited by Gordon Webb
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43 minutes ago, Azazel said:

My little take for today.

Convergence zone looks like setting up around/just north of the M4 later this afternoon which should fire off thunderstorms from Cambridgeshire across the southern Midlands into South Wales. Showers breaking out north and south of here, but less "severe." My target zone for anything beastly would be around Oxford.

weather 13.08.2020.jpg

Hope you're right as us in EA haven't had any storms so far during this hot spell! I reckon your chart won't be far off the mark today, with a 'zone' of storms forming this morning then another belt popping up later this afternoon/evening.  

I'm conscious the CAPE values, although decent, won't quite be matching yesterdays though as we are off to an extremely murky start here in Cambs with low level mist and cloud - I suspect some of the juiciest storms of this hot phase may well have already occurred yesterday. It remains to be seen as and when this misty murk burns off and how it affects storm growth/severity later today. I am still hopeful things will get going though and satisfy us in the storm drought land of EA! 

Edited by Matty88
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