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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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2 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

Okay can’t keep my eyes open any longer. I figure at this point If it’s worth waking for it’ll wake me.  Night. 

Sleep well!

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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Just reading the Paul Blight forecast for tomorrow and wondering if the ridiculous temperatures have actually hindered severe storm development in the southeast.

Tomorrow and next few days we are looking at temps a little lower (by a few degrees at least) and just thinking this could help moderate the speed at which storms develop through the afternoon - meaning the updraughts can be sustained.

We’ve got to get at least one of these risks to come off for the south. Like I said before there’s only so long you can rest on “tomorrow delivering the goods” as we’re only a few days from this breakdown concluding and a significant synoptic pattern change to something cooler and less convective.

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You can see about 3 generations of storm here. They were building to the SE (the very rear cell here) and really developing quickly into rain producers in a matter of minutes. Constant rumblings from the Aldershot cell (just out of view to the left) but it seemed to be 100% elevated.

This was the one that went on to become the huge storm as it passed into Wilts later in the afternoon. Watched it slowly develop and it was definitely a stronger storm because it had formed over time and established itself properly

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Sooo no one not seeing the cells building up in the Channel the past 20mins ?

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We want this stuff coming into Kent to hold back now. I doubt it would electrify anyway, but the risk is that it could cause early morning cloud cover if it persists - and we want to attain around 30°C by lunchtime to power up a heat low over the home counties which - along with decent convergence - should be the trigger for the good stuff during the afternoon hours...

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After a lull in CAPE overnight. Its seems that associated with the remains of the MCS from france last night. Theres seems to be some developments in the channel. Which hasnt been seen really all week. If it comes off area of the south could be in for a few rumble or 2 before 7z. Cape will increase early morning !

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After a lull in CAPE overnight. Its seems that associated with the remains of the MCS from france last night. Theres seems to be some developments in the channel. Which hasnt been seen really all week. If it comes off area of the south could be in for a few rumble or 2 before 7z. Cape will increase early morning !

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3 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Sooo no one not seeing the cells building up in the Channel the past 20mins ?

Was sat on the beach at Pevensey from 10pm til midnight, watching distant lightning on the French coast. Had to leave eventually as my friend needed the loo and the buggers had padlocked the disabled facilities! 
Noticed it had started crossing the Channel by the time we got home.

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

We want this stuff coming into Kent to hold back now. I doubt it would electrify anyway, but the risk is that it could cause early morning cloud cover if it persists - and we want to attain around 30°C by lunchtime to power up a heat low over the home counties which - along with decent convergence - should be the trigger for the good stuff during the afternoon hours...

This was my worry. However i don’t think as you say this was forecast to even reach of shores in one piece. So the chance of cloud cover in the morning increases. But i an sure as sunrise sets in whatever has initiated will quickly disperse. But its here now and once it meets that hot air. Even if it doesn’t  electrify, this could hang around today keeping that temp down from the extortionate, and give us some much needed rain across areas. Notice how it was forecast to fly WNW with other precip. Must be taking its own track on a less Westerly flow and more NNW, which is probably why it has not died yet.

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1 minute ago, Justin1705 said:

This was my worry. However i don’t think as you say this was forecast to even reach of shores in one piece. So the chance of cloud cover in the morning increases. But i an sure as sunrise sets in whatever has initiated will quickly disperse. But its here now and once it meets that hot air. Even if it doesn’t  electrify, this could hang around today keeping that temp down from the extortionate, and give us some much needed rain across areas. Notice how it was forecast to fly WNW with other precip. Must be taking its own track on a less Westerly flow and more NNW, which is probably why it has not died yet.

If it’s rain we need then we’re better off if this channel stuff doesn’t get too developed. The potential for very heavy storms is there later in the day - but we don’t want that channel clag sitting around burning off all morning

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

If it’s rain we need then we’re better off if this channel stuff doesn’t get too developed. The potential for very heavy storms is there later in the day - but we don’t want that channel clag sitting around burning off all morning

Well i mean if you look at sat 24 cloud tops(to see cloudcover also at night) you can see across drance and even in channel, tops are falling and things look to disperse, we have 3/4 hours where this needs to happen. But looking past the orange mess on sat24 it seems clearwr behind, and does seem to be moving quicker now its at a less elevated altitude.

 

also im sure some runs forecast for Thursday sweeping storms for the E-W on the south of the county in the morning then backed away from the idea then away again then back.

i did notice on met office vis forecast that they mentioned cloud would be more extensive today, but did not seem to affect there view on storm development.
 

Edited by Justin1705
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Just now, Justin1705 said:

Well i mean if you look at sat 24 cloud tops(to see cloudcover also at night) you can see across drance and even in channel, tops are falling and things look to disperse, we have 3/4 hours where this needs to happen. But looking past the orange mess on sat24 it seems clearwr behind, and does seem to be moving quicker now its at a less elevated altitude.

Yeah it looks like it’s moving quite slow though 😬 

Regardless the forecast for tomorrow seems to still be a 12hr thunderstorm lol

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7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You are onto something though - that big rain blob is shrinking on radar over the last few frames, which is a relief. I can handle the smaller discrete stuff popping up

Haha well either way i think we both need tk go to sleep! If you can i feel clammy and sweaty like a sauna . But im gonna hit the hay, tommorow will be here even quicker than If we sit and watch radar return by radar return aha. Good night

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5 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Haha well either way i think we both need tk go to sleep! If you can i feel clammy and sweaty like a sauna . But im gonna hit the hay, tommorow will be here even quicker than If we sit and watch radar return by radar return aha. Good night

I went to bed at about 11 anyway and woke up at about 1am. Currently ordering PARTS (not pets) for work but hopefully can get a few more hours with eyes shut before the sun’s up properly.

Don’t really feel tired but I know I will by the afternoon if I don’t try 😬😅

Good luck!

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I went to bed at about 11 anyway and woke up at about 1am. Currently ordering PARTS (not pets) for work but hopefully can get a few more hours with eyes shut before the sun’s up properly.

Don’t really feel tired but I know I will by the afternoon if I don’t try 😬😅

Good luck!

Although i love storms. I cant wait for more seasonable weather. I mist say i miss the atlantic influence haha. 🥶  might be able to sleep properly next week!! GL GN

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I love the fact the Arome / UKV and all other models do not have a scooby on how to model the drought ridden areas for Storms. Arome had huge Storms affecting the Estuary by 4am and Met also from around 5am.

End result drizzle and low clouds with a cold east north easterly wind. 

Confident in another storm less day down here but once again west and south of London down through to Hants etc could have their shields broken today. 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz

And back to sleep 

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11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I love the fact the Arome / UKV and all other models do not have a scooby on how to model the drought ridden areas for Storms. Arome had huge Storms affecting the Estuary by 4am and Met also from around 5am.

End result drizzle and low clouds with a cold east north easterly wind. 

Confident in another storm less day down here but once again west and south of London down through to Hants etc could have their shields broken today. 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz

And back to sleep 

Estofex have us under a level 2 warning ⚠️.

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1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Estofex have us under a level 2 warning ⚠️.

in the detail it specifies Southern England and along with what Paul Sherman say looks more focused further south today and the main threat I think today may be flooding

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Sitting under a blanket of MCS detritus with spots of rain falling. Will need to see how quickly it clears and what impact it will have on storm development. We’ve seen in recent days how rapidly temperatures can rise under this air mass.

The level 2 is concerning precisely because it is indicative of flooding risks - the ground in these parts is bone dry and there has not been significant rain for weeks. Worth noting however that a number of models have been modelling storms merging a moving towards similar areas of the west (chiefly South Wales) which has had considerable rain in the Past 24-48 hours.

Interesting to see how this all pans out. I personally have no clear idea.

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