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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

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interesting to see what happens to those showers when they hit hastings

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1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

Does lightning or thunder need to be over you or,  just visible/ audible from your location to destroy the cone of science?

Either way good luck, we are all praying for you, we know you are scratching around for scraps, instead of your usual gourmet storms  😉

 

Lol thanks its been a rough year for sure but am sure things will get better was supposed to be leading the Monsoon Chase in Arizona starting tomorrow and thankfully thats turned into Nonsoon like the Tornado Season which lacked oomph as well.

My rule of thumb is visible Cg on Nightime Lightning and overhead storm during the daytime or within 2 miles none of which has happened in the last 383 days

Am praying for everyone in the 3 affecting regions and your good self in the POS down in Hants/Dorset and surrounds

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5 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

I’d love to know what’s changed that’s made the Southern half of England such a drought zone for storms, particularly imports up from France. Just doesn’t seem to happen much anymore. I remember some all night belters from my childhood which I didn’t appreciate much back then but certainly would do now. As you say Midlands northwards has become the storm sweet spot of the UK.
 

Let’s hope Wednesday/Thursday delivers the goods if not a few surprises before.
 

We went through a storm drought up here for years. It was really quite depressing.

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Think I may have just heard the faintest elevated rumble...

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Can see yellow lit lightning cloud tops in the Channel from my home in Eastbourne 😉

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Posted (edited)

Hey guys and good evening🙂

let me start by saying over the years that i have been on this site(and going some years lol)and viewing all the models whether it be close or long range with regards to storms,you can throw em out of the window as they are computer generated and will not be accurate bar the trends that they show in the immediate time scales(that would be on the day)and then they are not completely accurate 

we await tomorrow to see how developments take us through the day

so get some sleep and wake up fresh for tomorrow as this is the first biggy of days

i just like to wish you all good luck and as i have said before,some will catch them but most wont

if you have a car it's a bonus😉

good luck for tomorrow guys

i will catch you tomorrow,good night. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol thanks its been a rough year for sure but am sure things will get better was supposed to be leading the Monsoon Chase in Arizona starting tomorrow and thankfully thats turned into Nonsoon like the Tornado Season which lacked oomph as well.

My rule of thumb is visible Cg on Nightime Lightning and overhead storm during the daytime or within 2 miles none of which has happened in the last 383 days

Am praying for everyone in the 3 affecting regions and your good self in the POS down in Hants/Dorset and surrounds

Well fingers crossed, it's been terrible that's for sure, I've had a week of holiday, with nothing to show for all this heat, and I'm back at work tomorrow🙄 I would definitely be chasing tomorrow if I was still off, typical.

Good luck Paul and everyone else, unless you are  on here to see if it's time to start hiding under the stairs 😂

Edited by Southern Storm
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5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol thanks its been a rough year for sure but am sure things will get better was supposed to be leading the Monsoon Chase in Arizona starting tomorrow and thankfully thats turned into Nonsoon like the Tornado Season which lacked oomph as well.

My rule of thumb is visible Cg on Nightime Lightning and overhead storm during the daytime or within 2 miles none of which has happened in the last 383 days

Am praying for everyone in the 3 affecting regions and your good self in the POS down in Hants/Dorset and surrounds

Paul, perhaps a bit of reverse psychology may work, you don't want to see anything, no lightning, or hear even a distant rumble.. Not a blinking thing, not a peep! You want to see that 383 days last another 383 days...put the cameras away (ish), you've really got to mean it, even if forecast... No storms. 

Its really the only option left now?

Then watch it go boom within the week out of spite. Lol

 

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Posted (edited)

You can see the outflow from the MCS triggering the storms in the channel there.

Cells closer to Hastings weaken whilst the ones closer to France strengthen.

2196393.thumb.gif.668970e46c0abd0fc6c37558d3f247e2.gif image.thumb.png.f285351fe4921d75c92b85574591fac6.png xx_sat-en-330-0_2020_08_09_22_10_4855_123.thumb.png.5a29c10112599675adb7c0d0c18291ba.png

Edited by Jamiee
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What to expect

There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds

Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services

Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures

There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life

translated to:

We can’t accurately predict where thunderstorms will happen (a bit similar to snow) but rest assured they are likely, tho not definitely in your back garden

When, and if a Thunderstorm happens it will be wet and flashy, so keep grounded and take care out there, especially if you are playing golf with your grandmother

We’ll update you all via social media and the web when we hear there’s something important to report or might do this just before it happens - if there's more than a small chance

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

You can see the outflow from the MCS triggering the storms in the channel there.

Cells closer to Hastings weaken whilst the ones closer to France strengthen.

2196393.thumb.gif.668970e46c0abd0fc6c37558d3f247e2.gif image.thumb.png.f285351fe4921d75c92b85574591fac6.png xx_sat-en-330-0_2020_08_09_22_10_4855_123.thumb.png.5a29c10112599675adb7c0d0c18291ba.png

Just heard a proper rumble then, must have been loud

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Some brighter, closer flashes are mixed in now. Still not much in the way of that gorgeous elevated thunder though

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Pop Goes The Storm

sat_20200809_2215_animation.thumb.gif.f048063995de87b961279fddd23343e5.gif

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Can also see lightning from Folkestone, no rumbles yet but the fan is running at full whack to try and combat the humidity!

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Ooo, meatier rumble there, from a much closer offshore cell looking at radar!

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image.thumb.png.cd749daf9b668252ba3cf7995f202864.png

Chunky line forming which could produce an Eastern Kent battering if it survives.

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Maybe an early hours surprise Kent Clipper?

If that MCS is moving into NW France and continues to feed the outflow storms with enough lift then its a small shout.

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The most western storm of the cells coming out from near Berck, seems to be really lit up on the infrared sat, seems like that will batter the SE 

image?type=infraPolair&region=gb
EN.SAT24.COM

Infrared satellite images of United Kingdom and Ireland, Clouds in United Kingdom and Ireland at night and in the evening. Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and...

 

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Posted (edited)

Not wishing to dash anyone's hopes in Kent tonight, but those storms don't seem to be moving anywhere...just developing further west along a line.

But always the chance of further fresh development closer to home for you guys maybe?

 

Edited by Gord

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3 minutes ago, Gord said:

Not wishing to dash anyone's hopes in Kent tonight, but those storms don't seem to be moving anywhere...just developing further west along a line.

But always the chance of further fresh development closer to home for you guys maybe?

 

As the out flow moves north, so will the storms, very slowly. Doesn't look like they have any intention of dying. Could be wrong, all depends on the MCS causing the out flow. 

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What about the heavy rain showers approaching Devon and Cornwall movin North East ish... Are they something to keep an eye on... 

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Not going to lie, that elevated rumble made me go 'ahhhhh...' out loud! Flashes are becoming more frequent and brighter it seems too.

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Decided to head down the coast to watch the storms in the channel. Flickers of lightning every 3-5 seconds, with just the occasional distant cg to be seen along with faint, distant thunder.

Much better than trying to sleep in this heat amd hopefully just a starter 🙃

 

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