Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    27 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    Initiation well north of a line from London and south Wales once again, maybe one day Herts will get a good storm again....enjoy further north especially north west England which looks likely to be in the sweet spot again 😀 

    Definitely been a repetitive theme past few years now...best storm activity seems to initiate further North over, rather than South of the UK during plume type setups.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    7 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

    Cant get my head around how poor it looks for CS/SE given it's a plume type scenario what are we potentially missing other than luck?

    Understand the feeling considering how the SE has missed the storms for some time.

    We have 5 days of potential, IMO excellent potential, I get the feeling it will be like buses, wait ages for 1 then 3 turn up.

    That's enough Science from me.

    🌩️

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Not one for looking too far ahead for forecasting convective weather, especially from media forecasts, but I did feel a little "giddy" when I saw the countryfile forecast for the week ahead, especially for Weds/Thurs for my location.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Latest UKV 15z:

    Few snapshots for tomorrow:

    11A02656-E4F5-498C-8E18-BB76845D92EC.thumb.png.10b555b8d50b0508c7ce92940285fe68.pngD2CC0A59-15F2-4D80-B853-B6ACA873BEEF.thumb.png.8d5670ebfc9bafb3b9c8fa3c8c66f1ac.pngA4CA3BDE-F4CA-4E25-AEC9-378DF449E864.thumb.png.a7b13a23874c4075f3d59635721f5b03.png5BC3ADDA-FBDA-4E90-9F4D-CA547DF86FD1.thumb.png.c22974702f302124229d9255cbd47b3d.png932B1629-561E-4E98-9F4D-D6BF1F7C1CF8.thumb.png.57491ff1b4153ccd26d8c1662db3894c.png

    Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 😄

    Edited by Mr Frost
    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    Just now, Mr Frost said:

    Latest UKV 15z:

    Tomorrow:

    11A02656-E4F5-498C-8E18-BB76845D92EC.thumb.png.10b555b8d50b0508c7ce92940285fe68.pngD2CC0A59-15F2-4D80-B853-B6ACA873BEEF.thumb.png.8d5670ebfc9bafb3b9c8fa3c8c66f1ac.pngA4CA3BDE-F4CA-4E25-AEC9-378DF449E864.thumb.png.a7b13a23874c4075f3d59635721f5b03.png5BC3ADDA-FBDA-4E90-9F4D-CA547DF86FD1.thumb.png.c22974702f302124229d9255cbd47b3d.png932B1629-561E-4E98-9F4D-D6BF1F7C1CF8.thumb.png.57491ff1b4153ccd26d8c1662db3894c.png

    Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 😄

    That huge mass of red gorgeousness and the only thing that has my attention is the tiny red dots in the SE on the 23z grab 😂

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    To my SE

    C2404CEB-D74B-4F52-B3C2-D075BF12D388.jpeg

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
    11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Latest UKV 15z:

    Few snapshots for tomorrow:

    Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 😄

    I have got my camera ready and prepared to travel in my car if anything comes north of the border 🙂

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

    Tropical sunset scenes looking west towards Leeds a bit ago, although minutes later it was obscured by North Sea clag, which is outrageous in August... I expect that rubbish in April and May! 20200809_195431.thumb.jpg.187d50fe64d4db95f05cad10dab6338a.jpg

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    1 hour ago, Cableguy said:

    Cant get my head around how poor it looks for CS/SE given it's a plume type scenario what are we potentially missing other than luck?

    It's getting truly tiresome this year! We have to roast in the highest temps, while further north and west reaps all of the rewards! Looks like we've already lost one out of the few days' potential tomorrow! What's the betting the others all go the same way and we end the week stormless?

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    Just now, Lance M said:

    It's getting truly tiresome this year! We have to roast in the highest temps, while further north and west reaps all of the rewards! Looks like we've already lost one out of the few days' potential tomorrow! What's the betting the others all go the same way and we end the week stormless?

    there are a couple of showers approaching the south west, dont think they will amount to much.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    3 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

    there are a couple of showers approaching the south west, dont think they will amount to much.

    It's the energy contained in that area that will develop over Wales even if those don't.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    33 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Latest UKV 15z:

    Few snapshots for tomorrow:

    11A02656-E4F5-498C-8E18-BB76845D92EC.thumb.png.10b555b8d50b0508c7ce92940285fe68.pngD2CC0A59-15F2-4D80-B853-B6ACA873BEEF.thumb.png.8d5670ebfc9bafb3b9c8fa3c8c66f1ac.pngA4CA3BDE-F4CA-4E25-AEC9-378DF449E864.thumb.png.a7b13a23874c4075f3d59635721f5b03.png5BC3ADDA-FBDA-4E90-9F4D-CA547DF86FD1.thumb.png.c22974702f302124229d9255cbd47b3d.png932B1629-561E-4E98-9F4D-D6BF1F7C1CF8.thumb.png.57491ff1b4153ccd26d8c1662db3894c.png

    Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 😄

    Looks to me as though thats joined the euro4 and keeps things even further west?east of those storms looks an asbolute scorcher🔥

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Spalding Lincolnshire
  • Location: Spalding Lincolnshire
    56 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

    Been cloudy and chilly here today because of the wind, not alot to look forward to storm wise as it all seems to be west of here.

    Where have you been? I've been out in the garden at pinchbeck and have got sun burnt. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Elevated convection in the morning across the SW and Wales where the in the areas where mid level cloud abundant, here CAPE around 750Jkg, so lightning and heavy precipitation the main hazards. Although some mid-level cloud extends further east towards southeast England drier higher level air should prevent much elevated convection here.

    image.thumb.png.09e2bbb1d99d43b353be3e8291586333.png

    Pic 1: 10/0600 UTC Mid Level Clouds from EC

    image.thumb.png.34f3269865778f5ac13768fedc3d49ba.png

    Pic 2: SkewT to from GFS valid over mid Wales at 10/0600 UTC

    This elevated convection then extends north as the upper trough which assists in de-stabilising the zone pushes northwards, it is then the question whether the cap that exists to the E of this zone can be broken and release, always a close call in these events but a combination of surface heating and convergence (including from outflows left by the elevated convection earlier in the day) could combine to release some isolated but extremely violent thunderstorms (>2500Jkg of CAPE, with very large hail, strong winds, frequent lightning and incredible precipitation rates possible). Difficult to judge area at the highest risk from these....but I'd guess a zone from Wilshire towards Greater Manchester....and these could take well into the day early evening to fire (if they do at all).

    image.thumb.png.a9933746b1b2cdb0544f5dad3a911493.png

    Pic 3: SkewT to from GFS valid over West Midlands at 10/1800 UTC

    Edited by KeegansPerm
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    4 minutes ago, KeegansPerm said:

    Elevated convection in the morning across the SW and Wales where the in the areas where mid level cloud abundant, here CAPE around 750Jkg, so lightning and heavy precipitation the main hazards. Although some mid-level cloud extends further east towards southeast England drier higher level air should prevent much elevated convection here.

    image.thumb.png.09e2bbb1d99d43b353be3e8291586333.pngimage.thumb.png.34f3269865778f5ac13768fedc3d49ba.png

    Pic 1: 10/0600 UTC Mid Level Clouds

    Pic 2: SkewT to from GFS valid over mid Wales at 10/0600 UTC

    This elevated convection then extends north as the upper trough which assists in de-stabilising the zone pushes northwards, it is then the question whether the cap that exists to the E of this zone can be broken and release, always a close call in these events but a combination of surface heating and convergence (including from outflows left by the elevated convection earlier in the day) could combine to release some isolated but extremely violent thunderstorms (>2500Jkg of CAPE, with very large hail, strong winds, frequent lightning and incredible precipitation rates possible). Difficult to judge area at the highest risk from these....but I'd guess a zone from Wilshire towards Greater Manchester....and these could take well into the day early evening to fire (if they do at all).

    image.thumb.png.a9933746b1b2cdb0544f5dad3a911493.png

    Pic 3: SkewT to from GFS valid over mid Wales at 10/1800 UTC

    jesus, never seen soo much cape over mid wales tomorrow eve, 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Wow Convective Weather forecast is a peach for the Midlands up to about Greater Manchester

    socialmedialogo.png
    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

     

    Edited by CreweCold
    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: 6 miles SE of Perth ( 40m asl )
  • Location: 6 miles SE of Perth ( 40m asl )

    Storm watch issued for tomorrow from me...
    > No High lightning risk yet as the details still need to be determined but with the combination of 25-35kt deep shear, strong low level shear, High CAPE levels, moderate lapse rates should allow for some supercells to develop and possibly a couple of tornado's tomorrow as well as large hail in places and flooding. As these storms develop they will begin to make their journey north they will become more elevated in nature reducing the supercell risk and hail risk but frequent lightning still expect across northern and north east England. 

    10-08-20.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    2 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

    Looks like quite a decent Tornado risk tomorrow according to Skew t from the GFS

    weathe.JPG

    Not impossible, generally dew points are too high in GFS. So in reality I'd expect the LCL (convective cloud base) to be a fair bit higher than shown by GFS. A higher LCL reduces tornado risk.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    Based on CW's forecast, for those more experienced in the area what is a good vantage point/area to position when waiting for these storms?

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...