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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

so friendo nothing for the south east again? ;-;

Skies look about as stable as can be sadly 😢 also WRF-NMM shows a period in the coming hours of no CAPE for our region but it wafts in again the early hours. @Paul alluded earlier to the latest UKV signalling some hope but I don’t have access to that sadly - UKMO projections (running the forecast precipitation on the website) hints are some isolated possible storms developing across the SE and drifting westwards in the next hour so - seems unlikely looking at the sky. Also indicates possible storms in the early hours.

All in all (again) not optimistic although chances are marginally higher than at any point in the past week.

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Constant growling here over north Wolverhampton, a few large spots of rain, nothing too heavy at the moment.

Biblical rain in East Wolves, wind has changed from Westerly to Easterly and now Southernly,

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Sorry to the storm starved, but I've popped my no storm cherry.  Cap suddenly went and within 10 minutes we had torrential rain  hail and some pretty strong gusts.  Thunder and lightning started a little later slightly to my west as the cell built. Temp has dropped 11 degrees for which am very grateful!

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Just now, Harry said:

Skies look about as stable as can be sadly 😢 also WRF-NMM shows a period in the coming hours of no CAPE for our region but it wafts in again the early hours. @Paul alluded earlier to the latest UKV signalling some hope but I don’t have access to that sadly - UKMO projections (running the forecast precipitation on the website) hints are some isolated possible storms developing across the SE and drifting westwards in the next hour so - seems unlikely looking at the sky. Also indicates possible storms in the early hours.

All in all (again) not optimistic although chances are marginally higher than at any point in the past week.

best chance would be in the early hours of the mortning going through all the charts im looking at, apart from arome that gives us nothing

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4 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Yes I kind of get the same feeling, however, 

Is it possible that it could also trigger new storms to form from the outflow?

I hope so as I'm having dinner on the end of Bournemouth Pier this evening so in a golden spot.......

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5 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Yes I kind of get the same feeling, however, 

Is it possible that it could also trigger new storms to form from the outflow?

Issue is CIN is sitting around 200 around most of Southern England into the late evening, so convection will be impeded quite a bit, killing most activity off. 

Like you said, the outflow might bring hope. I'm still optimistic we may see some night activity. 

Edited by Superstormuk
Added time reference for cin values
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1 minute ago, hammerb32 said:

Biblical rain in East Wolves, wind has changed from Westerly to Easterly and now Southernly,

will it make it up here? seem to be dying out, north has clear skies

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5 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

so friendo nothing for the south east again? ;-;

Of course not 😂 just mouldy leftovers From France if we’re lucky .. hope it cools soon, still baking in 33

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wow massive flash and boom!

thought our storm was over!

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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I hope so as I'm having dinner on the end of Bournemouth Pier this evening so in a golden spot.......

You will need the 50% off discount to dine in the restaurant at the end of bmouth pier!!! 

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2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

best chance would be in the early hours of the mortning going through all the charts im looking at, apart from arome that gives us nothing

About the worst news as ARÔME has been pretty hot! 

Euro4 and ARÔME however looking good for parts of the SE tomorrow - fingers crossed I can enjoy them outside of scheduled meetings however 

Tenperature has cooled right off to a balmy 31C now and the humidity has reduced from the insufferable levels of much of today. Doesn’t however help our cause for storms this evening and a likely reason why the French action is doomed to go pffffft!

Edited by Harry
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2 minutes ago, hammerb32 said:

Biblical rain in East Wolves, wind has changed from Westerly to Easterly and now Southernly,

Picking up a little, but not a patch on yesterday evenings - at the moment.

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Not seem any bolts but lots of thunder, my cats couldn't care less though and its still not started raining because the. witney stormshield powered up and parted the storms

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Now that was a +CG!! 🤩

Are you getting any video @Zak M? I love +CGs

Proper envious as I sit baking under clear skies (uurrrrgggaaaiinnn)

Edited by Harry
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Just now, Alderc said:

I hope so as I'm having dinner on the end of Bournemouth Pier this evening so in a golden spot.......

Perfect, I was planning to travel today to get to a prime location, but after a bit of pleading with the wife to change her plans, she decided to go out anyway, that must be grounds for divorce right? 😂😂😂

So I am firmly pinning my hopes on something happening closer to home.

Hope you have a nice meal and possibly a storm for desert 😁

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Need some storms to develop over the south west and move up over south Wales, not had a proper storm in a few years 😭

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3 minutes ago, Harry said:

About the worst news as ARÔME has been pretty hot! 

Euro4 and ARÔME however looking good for parts of the SE tomorrow - fingers crossed I can enjoy them outside of scheduled meetings however 

Tenperature has cooled right off to a balmy 31C now and the humidity has reduced from the insufferable levels of much of today. Doesn’t however help our cause for storms this evening and a likely reason why the French action is doomed to go pffffft!

EXPLOSION!!!!

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