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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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2 minutes ago, Tomtommytom2020 said:

Leicestershire too far north? 

Maybe. 
 

30 miles south of Birmingham and South/West of there are today’s hot spot. North of that and you are struggling massively. 
 

It’s a Birmingham south event.

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Oo she's a beauty 

A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Maybe. 
 

30 miles south of Birmingham and South/West of there are today’s hot spot. North of that and you are struggling massively. 
 

It’s a Birmingham south event.

😱😐😐

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6 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I would be VERY surprised if anything made it north of stoke. There’s a storm 10 miles south of me here (yet again, we are getting SCREWED) and that’s not making it any further north. I’m 25 miles north of Birmingham. I’m expecting to stay dry and storm less, too much of a westerly element. 
 

Somewhere in a line south of Birmingham into towards Worcester is going to get slammed tonight. Further north than that? 
 

Can’t see it. If I’m too far north then Leeds, Manchester, Stoke, Crewe etc have no chance today. 
 

An absolutely infuriating week so far here.

 

You could get something creeping up there, but I like your prediction based on radar and steering winds. As we are up stream of your prediction area, we could be set for another round, but its a case of how long the developing line goes into the night... few hours before anyone in the midlands can call bust yet though. 

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2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Maybe. 
 

30 miles south of Birmingham and South/West of there are today’s hot spot. North of that and you are struggling massively. 
 

It’s a Birmingham south event.

There's a storm is South Staffs right now to the NW of Brum

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Looks like we can add another day onto the totals in the Cone of Silence and others taking us to 385 days now and edging ever closer to that magical 400 days 

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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

there is no way that french cell is heading to us, its moving west at such fast speeds, the one in holland though is heading here

Even if it did head in England’s direction the DEC(Ducking English Channel) will kill it  

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1 minute ago, SalopWatcher said:

You could get something creeping up there, but I like your prediction based on radar and steering winds. As we are up stream of your prediction area, we could be set for another round, but its a case of how long the developing line goes into the night... few hours before anyone in the midlands can call bust yet though. 

Quite. The "real" storms haven't got going until mid evening, with severe stuff not getting organised till 10pm and later. There'll be no giving up around here!

 

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Much better potential for storms over the South Midlands and areas to the south of us as storms near London move WNW. It’s not like we don’t deserve it having been one of the hottest areas in the country and missing storms earlier this week to our North.

E2FB052C-542C-46A1-9A2F-B66C3D0476AA.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Looks like we can add another day onto the totals in the Cone of Silence and others taking us to 385 days now and edging ever closer to that magical 400 days 

SE Essex here, was that really our last storm? 
I knew it’d been quite some time but, wow, incredible to think it has been that long.

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14 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

If there is anywhere one could reach on a train, from East Sussex, with something like a Travelodge, that looks like a good possibility of a storm either direct or near enough to watch/listen.. where would it be? I have two excited young storm enthusiasts who are dying to see something, but without a car I’m a bit stuffed.

Maybe Dorking, then walk up Boxhill from there, 2 or 3 miles?

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Wowsers, looking out the window wfh and suddenly theres a huge anvil in front of me.... sadly I'm on the edge of it all again looking at sat24 but just heard a rumble.... please build eastwards!! 

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Can anyone explain why the Netweather lightning detector seems to pick up loads of strikes from some storms, yet performs very poorly on others? Is it the type of lightning? It seems to be at night that it doesn't function as well

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12 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I would be VERY surprised if anything made it north of stoke. There’s a storm 10 miles south of me here (yet again, we are getting SCREWED) and that’s not making it any further north. I’m 25 miles north of Birmingham. I’m expecting to stay dry and storm less, too much of a westerly element. 
 

Somewhere in a line south of Birmingham into towards Worcester is going to get slammed tonight. Further north than that? 
 

Can’t see it. If I’m too far north then Leeds, Manchester, Stoke, Crewe etc have no chance today. 
 

An absolutely infuriating week so far here.

 

 

9 minutes ago, Tomtommytom2020 said:

Leicestershire too far north? 

If the steering flow is now to the NW or WNW as it looks (was still to the NNE earlier) then your looking at a line from Peterborough to Nottingham to Manchester being the main northward extent. Anybody further north is reliant on much more widespread convection making time to grow less important.  

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7 minutes ago, hammerb32 said:

There's a storm is South Staffs right now to the NW of Brum

Yes but it’s moving westwards, not north. 

If that’s the case for myself, then the likes of Leeds have nothing, the main action is South east towards London. 

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2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Slightly frustrating seeing all these storms skirt west of here. That's pretty much been the story over the past few days. 

Yup same here,get so close then watch it skirt pass

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It is trying and failing miserably to really get going here. Dark, cloudy and now some rain. But rumbles are certainly aloft and/or distant.

The wind has really picked up and to my untrained eye of looking up at the sky and knowing which way is north...says they are moving west...possibly even a west south west

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14 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I would be VERY surprised if anything made it north of stoke. There’s a storm 10 miles south of me here (yet again, we are getting SCREWED) and that’s not making it any further north. I’m 25 miles north of Birmingham. I’m expecting to stay dry and storm less, too much of a westerly element. 
 

Somewhere in a line south of Birmingham into towards Worcester is going to get slammed tonight. Further north than that? 
 

Can’t see it. If I’m too far north then Leeds, Manchester, Stoke, Crewe etc have no chance today. 
 

 

 

That's assuming storms don't develop further north though

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