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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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1 minute ago, Blake Allen said:

Only near Bourges and another 200km south. Wouldn't say France has lit up as such.

And those in Biscay, of the coast of Brest and L'Orient, there is activity there, not all maps I use showing the same but all showing something. Being picked up on 4 detectors/maps I use.

Lightening maps org picked up something off cornwall just now too. Getting interesting 

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The place to be is a fishing boat of the coast of NE England, E England or on a beach.

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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Yep they certainly are,lightningmaps always does this when there is a powerful storm near by such as the one in central France,i always use blitzortung.org any day

WWW.BLITZORTUNG.ORG

Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other...

and the more international one which you can zoom in or out.

MAP.BLITZORTUNG.ORG

Blitzortung.org, lightning and thunderstorms in real time

 

 

Lightningmaps is more accurate with actual storms overhead, with a thundershower I had earlier this year Blitzortung missed more close strikes, but yeah watch out for the false strikes

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11 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Not all false strikes There is a cell fired up in biscay.

Mine's showing they've all been corrected now except one solitary strike quite far out in the bay. While watching it for a minute there were false strikes appearing and then soon disappearing all over the shop, from Essex to Ireland. @Allseasons-si explained basically what's going on with that in his reply. 

Edited by Lance M
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One easy way to tell if they’re false is to cross check with the the radar. If you see a lonely stroke appear on there but nothing showing in that location on the radar you can be fairly sure it’s false. 

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2 hours ago, viking_smb said:

because it will be better off road, than the scenic, mind you in the right hands a scenic can go a fair few places.

Do you have a Scenic m8? ;)

Ha just messing, the Scenic is a solid vehicle, I'm sure it gets a family of five to the South of France and back and the kids to footie on a regular basis! Put some mud tyres on it perhaps ha ha I'll tell my Mum that! 

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1 minute ago, Lance M said:

Mine's showing they've all been corrected now except one solitary strike quite far out in the bay. While watching it for a minute there were false strikes appearing and then soon disappearing all over the shop, from Essex to Ireland. @Allseasons-si explained basically what's going on with that in his reply. 

My phone has been showing a strike near Aberdeen for days now 😅

 

AB0E42D4-E408-4BA0-91CA-1FA6006744B8.png

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3 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Do you have a Scenic m8? ;)

Ha just messing, the Scenic is a solid vehicle, I'm sure it gets a family of five to the South of France and back and the kids to footie on a regular basis! Put some mud tyres on it perhaps ha ha I'll tell my Mum that! 

no actually, I have a vw passat 2.0tdi estate, 57 plate, 170hp, very quick car, and she runs only on shell derv good as gold, but in work I have done off road courses and skid pan training due to the nature of my work (we are on call 1 week in 4 so could go out in snow and some of the areas we go to are quite hilly) but we use a ford ranger 4x4 for snow and muddy farms

Edited by viking_smb
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2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

One easy way to tell if they’re false is to cross check with the the radar. If you see a lonely stroke appear on there but nothing showing in that location on the radar you can be fairly sure it’s false. 

The satellite can be good too. Especially where the storms are developing rapidly. Often show on sat before the radar shows much. 

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For a very similar live experience to lightningmaps, but without 90% of the false strikes, I recommend this link to Blitz's live version of their maps.

MAP.BLITZORTUNG.ORG

Blitzortung.org, lightning and thunderstorms in real time

 

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16 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

I'm in Porthmadog North Wales, could we get anything

Unlikely this evening and overnight, but Porthmadog is well in the firing line any time after breakfast tomorrow mate.

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I wonder what the chances of surface based storms are tomorrow? On the GFS at least, very high CAPE, wind convergence, and the precip seems to intensify in the evening.
ukcapeli.pngukwind.pngukprec.png

Met Office map suggests stronger cells around then too.. I might have to delve further and see if there's a realistic chance of the cap breaking for surface based storms or just elevated stuff. Or I could just wait for the excellent forecasts from convectiveweather.co.uk 

Probably the usual elevated activity/cloud complications anyway.. that could also mean I miss a storm here, but as I appear to be off work tomorrow, I might have to consider a chase.

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The runs will continue to chop and change but latest wrf nmm 2km develops a *likely* supercell tomorrow night across Wales, the reason I am saying that rather than just a regular thunderstorm is looking through all the parameters the atmosphere looks conducive but obviously never a guarantee so radar and satellite will be best bets as always 523F7C74-4A4C-44CA-B8C4-530E153795F0.thumb.gif.4de394041d056413b4210d6d6bf0d840.gif4A84EF55-E4EE-4729-8418-386CDE06E7CC.thumb.gif.1a172d6e76e0a1cf849227286dbcbfd1.gifECBC85D4-21BB-4660-B4D3-37B70406035A.thumb.gif.4845ef859737a2d70be2a72488dde2c7.gif72188355-9A89-4F91-A46B-D3C1C45FB2A8.thumb.jpeg.a412bfe8085e18c8446481f82e6e3f36.jpegC5A8DEAF-DED8-479C-9F86-71CE9844525C.thumb.jpeg.f815c2db213cd7ac6f8d78518091e4b1.jpegF0105DAC-036A-492E-BBA0-E89067A5205D.thumb.gif.fafa446ddc33e2efe92bf50f7118d092.gifEDE34AF1-3A95-4925-A281-A2622CC34DA1.thumb.gif.0c3bbe617b7be853a78a4ab66763695e.gif

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14 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

no actually, I have a vw passat 2.0tdi estate, 57 plate, 170hp, very quick car, and she runs only on shell derv good as gold, but in work I have done off road courses and skid pan training due to the nature of my work (we are on call 1 week in 4 so could go out in snow and some of the areas we go to are quite hilly) but we use a ford ranger 4x4 for snow and muddy farms

170bhp on a 2.0 passat, I bet that goes like the clappers! Solid car. 

We used to have two Ford Rangers at work. First one (08 plate) good as gold, had kickass acceleration and was decent off-road with BFG A/Ts on. Second one (13 plate) was sodding useless. Crap off-road, no oomph accelerating, dodgy gear-stick and it developed some "limp mode" fault meaning occasionally (quite often sometimes) it would go into limp mode and you could only do 50mph max (until you turned ignition off which isn't ideal at high speed on a motorway.) Took it to a Ford garage and I don't think they ever fixed it. Sumin to do with turbo perhaps. Maybe we just got a dud with that one! Current work truck is now a Mitsubishi L200. Pretty solid so far, and decent off-road. 

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28 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

I'm in Porthmadog North Wales, could we get anything

I'm just West of you at Hafen Y Mor, got another week here hopefully to enjoy some storms.

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7 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

170bhp on a 2.0 passat, I bet that goes like the clappers! Solid car. 

We used to have two Ford Rangers at work. First one (08 plate) good as gold, had kickass acceleration and was decent off-road with BFG A/Ts on. Second one (13 plate) was sodding useless. Crap off-road, no oomph accelerating, dodgy gear-stick and it developed some "limp mode" fault meaning occasionally (quite often sometimes) it would go into limp mode and you could only do 50mph max (until you turned ignition off which isn't ideal at high speed on a motorway.) Took it to a Ford garage and I don't think they ever fixed it. Sumin to do with turbo perhaps. Maybe we just got a dud with that one! Current work truck is now a Mitsubishi L200. Pretty solid so far, and decent off-road. 

it is, tows ok as well, our 4x4 in work doesnt have towbar, but the ones in fleet do.

Edited by viking_smb
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9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The runs will continue to chop and change but latest wrf nmm 2km develops a *likely* supercell tomorrow night across Wales, the reason I am saying that rather than just a regular thunderstorm is looking through all the parameters the atmosphere looks conducive but obviously never a guarantee so radar and satellite will be best bets as always 523F7C74-4A4C-44CA-B8C4-530E153795F0.thumb.gif.4de394041d056413b4210d6d6bf0d840.gif4A84EF55-E4EE-4729-8418-386CDE06E7CC.thumb.gif.1a172d6e76e0a1cf849227286dbcbfd1.gifECBC85D4-21BB-4660-B4D3-37B70406035A.thumb.gif.4845ef859737a2d70be2a72488dde2c7.gif72188355-9A89-4F91-A46B-D3C1C45FB2A8.thumb.jpeg.a412bfe8085e18c8446481f82e6e3f36.jpegC5A8DEAF-DED8-479C-9F86-71CE9844525C.thumb.jpeg.f815c2db213cd7ac6f8d78518091e4b1.jpegF0105DAC-036A-492E-BBA0-E89067A5205D.thumb.gif.fafa446ddc33e2efe92bf50f7118d092.gifEDE34AF1-3A95-4925-A281-A2622CC34DA1.thumb.gif.0c3bbe617b7be853a78a4ab66763695e.gif

that will be due to the mountains

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So browsing twitter and various other websites just now, the general jist of things for tomorrow's action seems to be West Mids, E and N Wales? 


It is a little tempting to get in the car and head to Church Stretton, Shropshire. It's a place I've just randomly picked out on the map. To me that looks fairly central to the warning area, unless anyone's got any other suggestions? 

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45 minutes ago, The PIT said:

The place to be is a fishing boat of the coast of NE England, E England or on a beach.

Can see the rain clouds in the distance from the North East where I am and down towards between Saltburn and Staithes 

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I don’t like how all of metcheck’s thunderstorm advisories have the highest risk in the west, even for Wednesday night.... seriously we really need something in the SE. Hope this changes nearer the time. 😬 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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