Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Frostbite1980]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Hi Frostbite ,  Why will Saturday be a different matter ?  Doesn't seem any heat or energy left really ? 

Because there are clearer skies, we have all suffered with claggy skies today but where skies clear tomorrow storms will be more widespread  still Midlands southwards though ☺

Edited August 14, 2020 by Frostbite1980

[StormLoser]

50 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

Still melting down here in East Sussex. Managed a 23 briefly but now a 22 but boy is it humid and sticky. breathe and you sweat.

Send it our way please! It is 18c here in Reigate, heavy overcast, and even if a storm erupted here it would give up and b*gger off through depression. The parakeets in our garden sound happy though...

Nick Finnis mentioned Isentropic Lift. Well, I interpret that as likely to go either way: up/down, in or out, storm or no storm. (   )

Meanwhile the weekend forecast looks better except for one thing....

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by StormLoser

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Absolute clag-fest today. Complete bust, same down in the south tomorrow I suspect. 

 

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Still can’t believe that cloud is now the issue with developing storms in the south.

Can someone please explain to me what additional factor would come into play and inhibit storms if by some miracle we didn’t have any cloud today? I just fail to believe that we’re it not for the cloud we would be enjoying prolific lightning, we’ve had the heat, the insolation, the short waves, the CZs, UHIs and that small heat low the other day, and the only storms (with the exception of the ones that ended up in the fog last night, were strange in that that were too high to be of any use to anyone. I certaintly wouldn’t consider them heavy, dangerous thunderstorms, to the contrary rather forgettable with only about 6 visible lightning strikes throughout.

What is it with this heatwave that has completely decimated decent storm chances in the south? By now by rights we should have had at least one classic plume breakdown across a wide area of the SE but nothing. Nothing at all.
 

Everything from today onwards also being downplayed too... I’ve literally lost hope of seeing anything before this summer is over. Can’t go abroad to see anything. Kinda f****d storm wise in every way since the year started.

Available at all good stores

[Mapantz]

UKV shows another cloudy/overcast day for many tomorrow. A few scattered showers, but nothing noteworthy. Something does develop in the Midlands during the evening though.

[Ryukai]

Can see towers to my East poking over the house roof's (probably over the Pennines).  for a nice drizzly evening shower again to cool things off 

[DIS1970]

Looks as though this particular event really has died a death now, unless it has something hiding in it's back pocket. Still not been a bad afternoon today.

[Ryukai]

Towers to my East are getting closer and still going up, Looks very dark underneath too.  Still stupid muggy at 25C (was 18C yesterday at the same time) 

Come here Clouds and rain please  even Drizzle will do 

[Sparkiee storm]

53 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV shows another cloudy/overcast day for many tomorrow. A few scattered showers, but nothing noteworthy. Something does develop in the Midlands during the evening though.

Anything noteworthy that develops in the Midlands? 

[Electricmumma]

For all you storm starved, I present my rather squiwfy artists impression of lightning..

Edited August 14, 2020 by Electricmumma

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

For all you storm starved, I present my rather squiwfy artists impression of lightning..

“I’m afraid the X-ray shows that you may have eaten a tornado. Have you been experiencing particularly bad wind? “

[Chris Lea-Alex]

1 hour ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

Heading up to north London.  Rolling the dice...

I rolled a One.

[Harry]

Some speckled precipitation starting to form over Essex again

[Cableguy]

9 minutes ago, Harry said:

Some speckled precipitation starting to form over Essex again

Let it go

[Paul Sherman]

Well its kinda like a fine drizzle but also has the appearance of Sea Mist so not up to much Harry - Could intensify as it moves towards old London town of course

[Ryukai]

20 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I rolled a One.

There's a little cell over Chelmsford! Go Get it!!!! 

[Electricmumma]

25 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

“I’m afraid the X-ray shows that you may have eaten a tornado. Have you been experiencing particularly bad wind? “

Omg I actually laughed out loud! 

[claret047]

4 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

There's a little cell over Chelmsford! Go Get it!!!! 

Hello Ryukal

Yes it is raining quite heavily here at the  moment but nothing to indicate we will be seeing anything thundery.

Kind Regards

Dave

Edited August 14, 2020 by claret047

[StormLoser]

Weather warnings are going well.  

Not.

Anyone awake at the Met Office? Or is their Yellow Blob left across the South just because it looks nice?  

I quote their latest Reigate forecast:

"This Evening and Tonight:

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening and overnight, Generally overcast through much of the night, especially toward the east coast. Feeling warm and humid. Minimum temperature 16 °C."

I'll go and stand under our metal pergola...perhaps that will get things going!

Edited August 14, 2020 by StormLoser

[Daniel*]

9 hours ago, Alderc said:

Another heatwave passes and another pathetic end convectively speaking down here. Don't seem to be able to buy more than weakening storm that staggers towards Bournemouth and then falls apart irrespective of which direction is comes from, south, east, north or west always the same results.

Its a very IMBY post obviously and appreciate many have filled their boots this week, not to mention they were also the same locations that generally had multiple rounds TS activity in June. In fact drawing a line up from Central London to Liverpool and 50 miles either side it looks like it been borderline a terrific summer for storms.

You couldn’t be more wrong central London has had no storms it’s all been in West London I had one decaying storm in June and that’s been my lot, for a location which climatology supports a higher frequency of thunderstorms in SE often a few decent ones every year. The last two years here have been unprecedented after May 2018 there’s been nothing but a few rumbles here and there. I’ve never known anything like it.

[Ryukai]

Got some nice standing lenticular looking clouds to my SW.   Been sitting in the same place for about an hour now.

No drizzle from the clouds coming in from the Pennines, they seem to be coming over in bands and every time one does there's a nice small cool breeze for a few minuets after they pass  Bliss  

[camturbo]

8 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Weather warnings are going well.  

Not.

Anyone awake at the Met Office? Or is their Yellow Blob left across the South just because it looks nice?  

I quote their latest Reigate forecast:

"This Evening and Tonight:

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening and overnight, Generally overcast through much of the night, especially toward the east coast. Feeling warm and humid. Minimum temperature 16 °C."

I'll go and stand under our metal pergola...perhaps that will get things going!

I agree conditions seemed almost perfect,forecasts looked promising and excitement levels were high. Unfortunately due to the wot on earth happened circumstances it didn't seem to happen for a lot of people. However it was good to see some good pics pity they weren't around here 

[Azazel]

That’s got to be the biggest bust of the season surely? I know we weren’t expecting anything particularly severe but no showers? Nothing at all? It’s been a cool, dank feeling October day here - temps never got anywhere near the projected mid 20 high.

[Biggin]

Nothing for the SE for 12 hours

[ChannelThunder]

38 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Weather warnings are going well.  

Not.

Anyone awake at the Met Office? Or is their Yellow Blob left across the South just because it looks nice?  

I quote their latest Reigate forecast:

"This Evening and Tonight:

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening and overnight, Generally overcast through much of the night, especially toward the east coast. Feeling warm and humid. Minimum temperature 16 °C."

I'll go and stand under our metal pergola...perhaps that will get things going!

I'm usually a defender of the Met Office, but their warnings and forecasts today are an absolute joke compared to the reality.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

As much as I appreciate the widespread use of the “100... 80.. 75... 42... 10... 3... 1... 0” forecasting model - and can see the merits that it’s quite often correct - I just think it’s a somewhat silly way to forecast extreme storms