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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
20 minutes ago, Gazza said:

I see what you did there but would just like to point out that not all Kent residents voted that way. I'm happy to receive more storms as well as our fair share of migrants  

I know

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, lightning and erm thunder
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex

Can I have a storm today please? I’m dog sitting tomorrow and need this muggy air cleared! 

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

I'm looking at the rain radars, mulling the weather warnings, Estofex and Mr Finnis' forecast.

I don't see anything coming off this. The system seems to be drying out from the east.  I suspect no storms for London and the SE as we head into the afternoon.  Hopefully I am wrong, but...

Edited by StormLoser
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
10 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I'm looking at the rain radars, mulling the weather warnings, Estofex and Mr Finnis' forecast.

I don't see anything coming off this. The system seems to be drying out from the east.  I suspect no storms for London and the SE as we head into the afternoon.  Hopefully I am wrong, but...

Considering the warnings are in place until 6am tomorrow, it's probably gonna be another midnight+ thing again like last night.  Still another 11 hours to go  

Edited by Ryukai
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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)

Oh hang on, might have a direct hit here from the east. Just torrential rain so far. 
 

Update. So that’s the only white shading on the radar so far, just moved away. Torrential rain but no fireworks sadly. 

Edited by Buzzard
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Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
13 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Oh hang on, might have a direct hit here from the east. Just torrential rain so far. 

Lucky you just grizzle here. Dont think I'm in for anything 

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
Just now, camturbo said:

Lucky you just grizzle here. Dont think I'm in for anything 

See above. Nothing special just torrential rain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, lightning and erm thunder
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex

Everything is too far north, or dies in the channel. Why is it that the channel seems to kill storms now whereas it used to be we would get hit direct from french storms ? It was almost always a given.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

No expert here, but I reckon the small showers dying off could be good thing if anyone wants anything later in southern England. Need some sun for a couple of hours! Dull and coolish in Stroud, but it is humid still. Another 5c on the temperature probably wouldn’t go amiss.. 

Edited by SilverWolf
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 hours ago, Lance M said:

It's almost like the weather's getting political. Kent votes for Brexit and then sees far fewer imported storms from Europe!

Lol May be, but no one can blame me, voted remain.

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just did a 15 minute stint on BBC Radio Somerset on Storms if anyone can find the link might be worth a listen or bore you all too tears

Found you, listening now!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_somerset_sound  -  go to 13.17 ish on the 'seek bar'

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Sun is out now temp jumped to 23C, not fantastically hot, but better than yesterdays effort, not expecting any sparks but better than 100% grey cloud cover.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

Why have we got a weather warning today its cold and windy 

Looking at the wind map a few posts above there's a convergence zone over us, but I can see it doing much unless this cloud goes away. It tried an hour ago, but now it's as thick as ever. It's also warm still and humid, basically just yuk. 

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Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
10 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

No expert here, but I reckon the small showers dying off could be good thing if anyone wants anything later in southern England. Need some sun for a couple of hours! Dull and coolish in Stroud, but it is humid still. Another 5c on the temperature probably wouldn’t go amiss.. 

Hope your right but dont thing it will happen down in these parts but always hope

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
13 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Found you, listening now!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_somerset_sound  -  go to 13.17 ish on the 'seek bar'

Thanks Mate will see how bad I sound later lol

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Btw looks like that little Summer ENE Streamer setting up I spoke about yesterday. Another win for the Arome if this one comes off. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

That cell near Sudbury is really growing tall!

Sudcell.png.162b63de1d9a600fb9e6ba4e565fde27.png

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thanks Mate will see how bad I sound later lol

If you’re listening later it might have gone from the live page but you should be able to get to it by going to the schedule and finding the program it was on. 
 

Meanwhile on the the storm front... I’m still waiting

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
34 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just did a 15 minute stint on BBC Radio Somerset on Storms if anyone can find the link might be worth a listen or bore you all too tears

Hope you did an explanation on the Cone of Silence!

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
7 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

That cell near Sudbury is really growing tall!

Sudcell.png.162b63de1d9a600fb9e6ba4e565fde27.png

Looks like there's a solitary strike on Blitzortung from that.

https://www.blitzortung.org/en/live_lightning_maps.php?map=12

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
1 hour ago, Ryukai said:

Considering the warnings are in place until 6am tomorrow, it's probably gonna be another midnight+ thing again like last night.  Still another 11 hours to go  

I'd place a bet on nothing happening other than some rain for the south of London to the coast. The trough is sinking south but there's simply no energy in it. And nothing but thick cloud south of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
11 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I'd place a bet on nothing happening other than some rain for the south of London to the coast. The trough is sinking south but there's simply no energy in it. And nothing but thick cloud south of it.

Totally agreed - I’m struggling to see where the energy will come from. WRF-NMM is modelling up to 1,500 J/Kg MUCAPE around London and Home Counties at 19:00 but I’m not sure how reliant this is on solar heating!?!?!? @staplehurst is the CAPE guru so maybe could advise.

Sunday evening/night has my attention though as models suggesting a fresh plume of instability accompanied by low pressure. 

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
26 minutes ago, Harry said:

Totally agreed - I’m struggling to see where the energy will come from. WRF-NMM is modelling up to 1,500 J/Kg MUCAPE around London and Home Counties at 19:00 but I’m not sure how reliant this is on solar heating!?!?!? @staplehurst is the CAPE guru so maybe could advise.

Sunday evening/night has my attention though as models suggesting a fresh plume of instability accompanied by low pressure. 

Biggest concern today was the extensive low cloud, which is rather stubborn to break. The most prolonged breaks so far have been in E Norfolk and NE Suffolk, allowing temperatures to lift to 24C at Tibenham Airfield in south Norfolk. Some gaps are also noted in SE Kent, and here temperatures have crept up to 23C in places.

12z Herstmonceux sounding suggests there is a subtle warm nose at ~850mb that requires a surface temperature of at least 22C to get past - many stations across southern England have not yet reached this threshold. The subdued temperatures have also meant not a significant temperature contrast between land and sea, and so the sea breeze convergence is only really evident across Kent/Sussex, and also Devon, otherwise the winds are largely offshore even on the coast. Without the convergence and >22C temperatures, surface-based convection is going to struggle to develop.

Based on this, the most likely areas right now to see convection initiate are E and SE Kent into East Sussex, and E Norfolk into E Suffolk - I particularly like this location due to the length of sunny breaks here so far, and a small surface low that is located in east Suffolk. Anything that does fire here will then drift WSW through Essex and perhaps towards London during the evening. Convergence is also noted in west Wales which may combine with upslope flow, and the fact there has been more sunshine here, to trigger some convection too.

The sounding reveals tall convection is possible (cloud tops potentially up to 36,000ft, which is quite deep for UK standards) but CAPE is rather skinny with fairly saturated profiles - and so lightning probably won't be as prolific as we've seen in previous days. As has been the issue all this week, shear is weak (10kts), and so storms will pulse and then collapse, bringing the risk of significant rain totals given their slow movement to the WSW (PWAT is 42.3mm!!)

The Bury St Edmunds storm right now I suspect is still elevated given the cooler surface temperatures and lack of any noticeable surface convergence there. Herstmonceux suggests ~800 J/kg if temperatures get to 24C.

Edit: obs just updated and the sea breeze is beginning to show signs of developing along other south coasts in southern England

HERST.JPG

Picture1.png

Edited by staplehurst
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