Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Google weather (I know, but I trust it LOL) Have us down for a heavy thunderstorm at 10 o’clock tonight

And then Ventusky (I know, it’s as mad as a mad hat) Has a storm system beginning in North East London and sweeping down to our region. It does look like there is a surprise waiting for us in the next 4 to 5 hours, so those in the south-east don’t give up hope just yet!

[ChannelThunder]

6 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Wow, lots of people giving up already

One thing is for sure, it's still very muggy out there, and I'm right on the coast, still many hours to go yet

 

Keep the faith

Dan's post was the nail in the coffin for me. There's nothing interesting going on at the moment that's catching my eye. If I was a betting man, then it's over for today.

[UKSupercell]

Is it me or is that Cambridgeshire cell moving fast as a tortoise?! Every time I've refreshed the radar it's just lingering there!!!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Cone of Silence held firm today producing zero rainfall. 2 Storms tried to get in but frazzled leaving a few booms from across Kent way and then disintegrated completely. 2 weeks to go to the magical 400 days 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Wow, lots of people giving up already

One thing is for sure, it's still very muggy out there, and I'm right on the coast, still many hours to go yet

 

Keep the faith

Yeah but we've all be burnt so many times before, the atmosphere appears to have been turned over (despite the humidity at lower levels) and not much happening on radar. That said Arome does cheekily knock up some further convection this evening down this way. 

[pinball wizard]

10 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

Two decent looking cells have popped up about 15 miles off the Essex coast....

Can see their tops from Ipswich, look like they have started to implode the nearer to the anglia desert they move... 

[Southern Storm]

9 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Seems even more humid than earlier now to me. 

Absolutely agree, looks like things are not as clear with regards to our neck of the woods, yesterday had quite a mass of storms moving into out region later this evening, but looking at the the charts posted above, it looks like any storms that do develop will probably only make it as far as Southampton ish area.

I've not given up just yet, but if nothing kicks off again in the next 45 minutes, then that will be it for me as far as traveling goes, and if one comes to me then that will be a bonus

Edited August 13, 2020 by Southern Storm

[staplehurst]

10 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Is it me or is that Cambridgeshire cell moving fast as a tortoise?! Every time I've refreshed the radar it's just lingering there!!!!!!

That storm is intriguing - it's been there for hours! 12z Nottingham highlighting the instability aloft (nearly 600 J/kg CAPE), with convection firing from ~825mb level above the cool boundary layer (so it is elevated and not surface-based). Can only assume there's some locally enhanced convergence at that level in the area, perhaps outflow from the earlier storms helping to maintain it.

The arrival of elevated showers creeping towards east Essex is somewhat encouraging, implying there is additional forcing aloft approaching from the east - which may help additional showers/storms develop later this evening. Time will tell!

Edited August 13, 2020 by staplehurst

[Had Worse]

Constant thunder now just West of me towards Pwllheli.

The storm cam right over and had really developed since.

[Frosty hollows]

I don't think it was ever on today for my area. Last night's storm left us with cool air that became saturated overnight....From yesterday's hot and dry profile to the complete opposite. This morning's rain has inhibited everything as the sun never really got going...max of 24c. Not so pessimistic to give up on this year just yet, but think I've had my lot for the day (ie nothing!)

[Ian Ballinger]

Just now, Had Worse said:

Constant thunder now just West of me towards Pwllheli.

The storm cam right over and had really developed since.

Yeah it just skirted Porthmadog, the story of the past few days 

[pinball wizard]

4 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Can see their tops from Ipswich, look like they have started to implode the nearer to the anglia desert they move... 

The cell currently off the coast of Clacton/Frinton.. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

18 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Well I think the POS has been well and truly broken today but this part of it hasn’t. Maybe I’m under the SOR instead and that’s why I’ve had nothing here. 

Pos? lol

[dec10snow]

You’ve got to laugh, lots of heat over the past few days with no storms which led to today. Been cloudy all day and didn’t appear to reach the predicted temps and we’ve rounded it off with some moderate/heavy rain. Bit of a cooler breeze now that rain has passed over, inclined to firmly grasp my towel and throw it as far away as possible.

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Yeah it just skirted Porthmadog, the story of the past few days 

its a a lively noisey beast.

[oliverek7]

Is it me or is there some development in the SE again? Is this a cumulus field or some crud?

[Storm mad]

2 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

The cell currently off the coast of Clacton/Frinton.. 

Doesn't look all that... Looks like a smurfs hat.. 

[Zak M]

Just heard my first rumble from that newly developed storm to my NE. Some pieces of low cloud is fading away and I can just make out their tops.

   

Edited August 13, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

Storm has developed out of nowhere in N London.

[Snowshine]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

I don't think it was ever on today for my area. Last night's storm left us with cool air that became saturated overnight....From yesterday's hot and dry profile to the complete opposite. This morning's rain has inhibited everything as the sun never really got going...max of 24c. Not so pessimistic to give up on this year just yet, but think I've had my lot for the day (ie nothing!)

I guess there are still more opportunities for southern and central areas on Sunday and early next week, given that tomorrow looks unlikely to deliver.

[Sam Jackson]

just got back from taking my dog for a walk and its now warm winds and muggy air feels heavier than it did a hour ago i feel its still on

[UKSupercell]

9 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

That storm is intriguing - it's been there for hours! 12z Nottingham highlighting the instability aloft (nearly 600 J/kg CAPE), with convection firing from ~825mb level above the cool boundary layer (so it is elevated and not surface-based). Can only assume there's some locally enhanced convergence at that level in the area, perhaps outflow from the earlier storms helping to maintain it.

The arrival of elevated showers creeping towards east Essex is somewhat encouraging, implying there is additional forcing aloft approaching from the east - which may help additional showers/storms develop later this evening. Time will tell!

Thanks for your insight pal, very interesting! Fingers crossed for more storms later 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, oliverek7 said:

Is it me or is there some development in the SE again? Is this a cumulus field or some crud?

Yes, Kent & Sussex into a more favourable environment currently. Also I think the cell in north London is going to take off. 

[pinball wizard]

4 minutes ago, Storm mad said:

Doesn't look all that... Looks like a smurfs hat.. 

Exactly as soon as it neared land it imploded on itself... 

[staplehurst]

Satellite imagery reveals growing cumulus in the vicinity of the northern Chilterns around Aylesbury and Luton, and some radar echoes have appeared in that area too. Elsewhere, quite a few sferics have also appeared in the Harlow area

Edited August 13, 2020 by staplehurst