Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Aiden2012]

Watching the hull storm roll in clouds are getting massive , dont know wether to get excited or not

[Jamie M]

PJB UKWW Update at 09z:

09Z Update

The 23Z & 00Z Ascents clearly show the mid level instability which is available above the very warm and quite dry layers below 850mb. Only Nottingham has a slightly different profile suggesting that surface based storms will require the additional moisture focus and convergence to build.

Areas of destabilisation of the warm 18-22C Theta-W plume at 850mb are already occurring over parts of the north and the 23/00Z Ascents suggest that further areas of destabilisation could occur during the day. An area of slight vorticity advection is driving the showers and thunderstorms north over NE Scotland at present (not covered under my initial forecast), these will continue to move NNE during the morning and will clear into the North Sea later. Following this is an area of descent moving north across Northern France early this morning and into Southern England around now.

Further South an area of more enhanced environmental and synoptic forcing is moving north and this enhanced lift and vorticity is likely to arrive across Southern Areas , Central Areas during the afternoon, evening and into the night. At the same time surface based conditions will gradually improve and storms either routed to the B/L (Where sufficient moisture and local convergence can occur) or elevated from destabilisation of the 850mb Plume will develop and break out across many Southern, Central and then western areas through the late afternoon and evening. Some of these will be intense with Hail, Flooding and Dangerous C/G Lightning with risk to disruption to the Power NEtworks.

CAPE is expected to be large this afternoon across parts of Central England, South Midlands, and esp around or WNW of London towards the M40 and M4 corridors with Heavy Intense Thunderstorms likely to develop and release very large amounts of CAPE.

Further ascent is expected later as the shortwave moves north across N France and into the English Channel with further destabilisation taking place of the 20C Theta-W Plume over the Channel augmented by surface based storms which will develop over N France. However conditions are expected to stay primed for Thunderstorms to continue to develop through the evening and night over Southern England. Forecast model accuracy is rather poor at the moment and no model should be trusted for individual detail, however there is generally good agreement over the next 12-18 hrs of the overall pattern described

Thunderstorms will continue to be heavy with lightning, torrential rain and associated problems with transmitters, power and transport networks.

I therefore will stick to my forecast at this point, with no significant changes

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Jamiee

[T4Toby]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

You've got nice and lucky then. We in Scunthorpe developed that storm for you. Just started to unleash its rain and lightning AFTER it had passed to the north of us

I'm not in hull I'm in Swansea, just looking at radar 

[oliverek7]

Well the met office wants to create something right on top of me at 3pm

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

3 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

PJB UKWW Update at 09z:

09Z Update

The 23Z & 00Z Ascents clearly show the mid level instability which is available above the very warm and quite dry layers below 850mb. Only Nottingham has a slightly different profile suggesting that surface based storms will require the additional moisture focus and convergence to build.

Areas of destabilisation of the warm 18-22C Theta-W plume at 850mb are already occurring over parts of the north and the 23/00Z Ascents suggest that further areas of destabilisation could occur during the day. An area of slight vorticity advection is driving the showers and thunderstorms north over NE Scotland at present (not covered under my initial forecast), these will continue to move NNE during the morning and will clear into the North Sea later. Following this is an area of descent moving north across Northern France early this morning and into Southern England around now.

Further South an area of more enhanced environmental and synoptic forcing is moving north and this enhanced lift and vorticity is likely to arrive across Southern Areas , Central Areas during the afternoon, evening and into the night. At the same time surface based conditions will gradually improve and storms either routed to the B/L (Where sufficient moisture and local convergence can occur) or elevated from destabilisation of the 850mb Plume will develop and break out across many Southern, Central and then western areas through the late afternoon and evening. Some of these will be intense with Hail, Flooding and Dangerous C/G Lightning with risk to disruption to the Power NEtworks.

CAPE is expected to be large this afternoon across parts of Central England, South Midlands, and esp around or WNW of London towards the M40 and M4 corridors with Heavy Intense Thunderstorms likely to develop and release very large amounts of CAPE.

Further ascent is expected later as the shortwave moves north across N France and into the English Channel with further destabilisation taking place of the 20C Theta-W Plume over the Channel augmented by surface based storms which will develop over N France. However conditions are expected to stay primed for Thunderstorms to continue to develop through the evening and night over Southern England. Forecast model accuracy is rather poor at the moment and no model should be trusted for individual detail, however there is generally good agreement over the next 12-18 hrs of the overall pattern described

Thunderstorms will continue to be heavy with lightning, torrential rain and associated problems with transmitters, power and transport networks.

I therefore will stick to my forecast at this point, with no significant changes

 

Any south east?

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

PJB UKWW Update at 09z:

09Z Update

The 23Z & 00Z Ascents clearly show the mid level instability which is available above the very warm and quite dry layers below 850mb. Only Nottingham has a slightly different profile suggesting that surface based storms will require the additional moisture focus and convergence to build.

Areas of destabilisation of the warm 18-22C Theta-W plume at 850mb are already occurring over parts of the north and the 23/00Z Ascents suggest that further areas of destabilisation could occur during the day. An area of slight vorticity advection is driving the showers and thunderstorms north over NE Scotland at present (not covered under my initial forecast), these will continue to move NNE during the morning and will clear into the North Sea later. Following this is an area of descent moving north across Northern France early this morning and into Southern England around now.

Further South an area of more enhanced environmental and synoptic forcing is moving north and this enhanced lift and vorticity is likely to arrive across Southern Areas , Central Areas during the afternoon, evening and into the night. At the same time surface based conditions will gradually improve and storms either routed to the B/L (Where sufficient moisture and local convergence can occur) or elevated from destabilisation of the 850mb Plume will develop and break out across many Southern, Central and then western areas through the late afternoon and evening. Some of these will be intense with Hail, Flooding and Dangerous C/G Lightning with risk to disruption to the Power NEtworks.

CAPE is expected to be large this afternoon across parts of Central England, South Midlands, and esp around or WNW of London towards the M40 and M4 corridors with Heavy Intense Thunderstorms likely to develop and release very large amounts of CAPE.

Further ascent is expected later as the shortwave moves north across N France and into the English Channel with further destabilisation taking place of the 20C Theta-W Plume over the Channel augmented by surface based storms which will develop over N France. However conditions are expected to stay primed for Thunderstorms to continue to develop through the evening and night over Southern England. Forecast model accuracy is rather poor at the moment and no model should be trusted for individual detail, however there is generally good agreement over the next 12-18 hrs of the overall pattern described

Thunderstorms will continue to be heavy with lightning, torrential rain and associated problems with transmitters, power and transport networks.

I therefore will stick to my forecast at this point, with no significant changes

 

Does PJB have an accompanying map? “Southern England” may include us - he certainly seems open to the idea of possible night time developments and is not enamoured much by the models.... oh please oh please oh please...getting desperate now 

[Azazel]

If I were a gambling man (I'm not) I would predict it looking something like this - with storm motion tracking North/North west.

So really, very similar to yesterday and the day before, though maybe an outside shot at the south/south east getting something wafting up the channel.

 

 

[AnvilCrawlers]

5 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

looks like your just on the edge as with all other forecasts today

Which I fear I will miss out as I think I be to far east and brum will bear the brunt,with them traveling nw again

[Atmogenic]

It's like when I was a child, the excitement I got when there was storm risks was all a dream because nowadays I don't trust any models of storms in the southeast. They always seem to not happen 99% and I will only get excited when i see it for myself. All the optimism I used to get has all gone because of this year and shows signs the change of the stormS breeding ground 

[sunnijim]

12 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

yep met just hammered the last of the nails in SE coffin

Not true, it is clear the best chance for SE England comes during the early hours of Thursday ( warning from Met office still in place) due to a trough moving out of Northern France and crossing the channel.

If you read Nick's update,this possibility is highlighted too.

Wednesday's storms probably will fire away from much of Kent/SE  if models have it nailed. 

[ChannelThunder]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Does PJB have an accompanying map? “Southern England” may include us - he certainly seems open to the idea of possible night time developments and is not enamoured much by the models.... oh please oh please oh please...getting desperate now 

He does indeed.:
 

Credit: PJB @ UKWW

Edited August 12, 2020 by Lance M

[sparky1972]

19 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

yep met just hammered the last of the nails in SE coffin

And us here in lincs

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

6 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Not true, it is clear the best chance for SE England comes during the early hours of Thursday ( warning from Met office still in place) due to a trough moving out of Northern France and crossing the channel.

If you read Nick's update,this possibility is highlighted too.

Wednesday's storms probably will fire away from much of Kent/SE  if models have it nailed. 

There is no warning still in place for south easg  ;-;

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Was hell of a night here not far from Perth, luckily we didn't get as much rain as Perth and other places in Fife. was lightning between 9pm and 7am almost non stop here, good 4-5 flashes per minute on average. 
Rain totals from what i have seen in the last 24 hours:
Perth: 90-110mm
 Lochgelly : 120mm
Kinross: 100mm
Where i am: 60mm 
Edinburgh: 80-130mm

Check out my twitter for the shots of lightning i captured. 

[JK1]

I swear thunderstorms are declining down here In south (well my area)  I remember years where we would get some really good ones but atleast summers seem to be getting hotter but not the same without the storms to go with it 

Edited August 12, 2020 by JK1

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

He does indeed.:
 

Credit: PJB @ UKWW

Thanks @Lance M

Most of us are in the orange which is good and I am just in the red. Would loved to have been in the pink zone but equally I’m not too far So that I could still see a light show. 

[T4Toby]

Just now, JK1 said:

I swear thunderstorms are declining down here In south I remember years where we would get some really good ones but atleast summers seem to be getting hotter but not the same without the storms to go with it 

Not in South Wales though. we usually only get 3 or 4 Here in Swansea but this year so far we've had 7

[oliverek7]

3 minutes ago, JK1 said:

I swear thunderstorms are declining down here In south I remember years where we would get some really good ones but atleast summers seem to be getting hotter but not the same without the storms to go with it 

I’m only seeing that trend this year. Because it’s 2020 I think. Just a terrible year for everything. Last year we had a couple amazing events and then may 2018, May 2017, June 2016, July 2015, July 2014, July 2013 etc. Every year there’s at least one really good stormy period in the south but this year has been the worst I’ve ever seen

Edited August 12, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Azazel]

Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I’m only seeing that trend this year. Because it’s 2020 I think. Just a terrible year for everything. Last year we had a couple amazing events and then may 2018, May 2017, June 2016, July 2015, July 2014, July 2013 etc. Every year there’s at least one really good storm event in the south but this year has been the worst I’ve ever seen

2018 was the legit worst i've seen down here. One evening plume in April and then absolutely nothing at all until July the following year.

This year we did have a weak storm over kingsclere/newbury way back in June I got out and chased, but that's it.

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I’m only seeing that trend this year. Because it’s 2020 I think. Just a terrible year for everything. Last year we had a couple amazing events and then may 2018, May 2017, June 2016, July 2015, July 2014, July 2013 etc. Every year there’s at least one really good storm event in the south but this year has been the worst I’ve ever seen

Agreed. There's always at least one good (July 2019) or exceptional (July 2017) plume event along the south coast. Always normally in July. Tonight could be the last chance saloon for many of us to see such an event this year. What exactly is 2020's beef with south and east of the M4 corridor? 

[ChezWeather]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

2018 was the legit worst i've seen down here. One evening plume in April and then absolutely nothing at all until July the following year.

This year we did have a weak storm over kingsclere/newbury way back in June I got out and chased, but that's it.

2018 was a poor year for storms in general if I remember rightly 

[JK1]

4 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I’m only seeing that trend this year. Because it’s 2020 I think. Just a terrible year for everything. Last year we had a couple amazing events and then may 2018, May 2017, June 2016, July 2015, July 2014, July 2013 etc. Every year there’s at least one really good stormy period in the south but this year has been the worst I’ve ever seen

Yh shocking this year, I think must be a mini storm shield around my town lol been a while since we had a proper one right over us 

Edited August 12, 2020 by JK1

[David Hill]

7 minutes ago, T4Toby said:

Not in South Wales though. we usually only get 3 or 4 Here in Swansea but this year so far we've had 7

I am just east of you, not had any storms they have all been to the north. I have hope for tonight for a lovely night time show like some have enjoyed. Daytime storms are a bit meh for me. So fingers crossed

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Hambo-Kun said:

Oh it did abit later on before finally moving away NE around 1am, never seen such intense and close lightning in the UK since my teenage years going back to the 90's.  I'll admit the earlier were more photo/Video genic with clouds lightning up and cloud to air strikes, the 2nd wave was far too intense and close.

Oh absolutely! At the time of my post though, it was staying West and with another cell popping up North. I thought we'd miss out.........then it came!!

[AnvilCrawlers]

Blimey temps shooting up here quicker than yesterday just check 10am reading and it already at 27.1 and dp 18c