Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Superstormuk]

9 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

As the Sun Newspaper would say: phwoar what a scorcher.  Another baking day here with cloudless skies.  Please can someone move the severe weather zone to Surrey? Thanks!  

Don't worry sir, we'll see our fair share of severe weather this week. Its got to happen. We're long over due. 

[ChannelThunder]

6 minutes ago, Bristol Aviation said:

How can the met office video forecast on YouTube be so wrong?? Where are the scattered showers/thunderstorms that were due to arrive to the south this morning? 

 

It's based on the ever-changing UKV data. Given that, I'm not keen on the way they record forecasts for the following morning on the day before. It's okay if you've got settled weather or a simple, predictable set of Atlantic fronts, but for situations like this with thunderstorms, the forecast is always going to be massively out of date.

[sparky1972]

39 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

My goodness in the last half hour, the humidity and temp has just skyrocketed! Now sweating sitting in the garden. The sky has a classic thundery look to it, like a loaded gun scenario again. 

i hope your right, lol

[Superstormuk]

This my AccuWeather feed for this week:

[Calayte]

Just now, Lance M said:

It's based on the ever-changing UKV data. Given that, I'm not keen on the way they record forecasts for the following morning on the day before. It's okay if you've got settled weather or a simple, predictable set of Atlantic fronts, but for situations like this with thunderstorms, the forecast is always going to be massively out of date.

Agreed, I try and avoid those morning forecasts as they're always uploaded the night before. And 90% of the time it all changes if the conditions are like this.

[Sam Jackson]

Clear

29.3°C 

  Hot  

Feels like: 30°C

24-hr Difference
2.8°C

Current:1012.0 mb  

humidity:48% 

Humidex:34.7°C

Dew Point:17.2°C 

Wet Bulb:21.7°C

 

 

 

 

 

 

thats southampton right now

 

Edited August 11, 2020 by Sam Jackson

[Northernlights]

Thunderstorm just trundled past us to the east over Elgin and heading into the Firth .Quite oppressive, misty, 15c and thunder audible.

[PolarWarsaw]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Nothing happened here last night (other than some distant flashes) and I can almost guarantee nothing will happen here today too. So I'm feeling a bit cranky too.

As for later on in the week, the N is shown to largely become more devoid of activity as it starts to focus down S...

Starting to feel I'll get the worst of both ends with this one.

Exactly this. 
 

The Midlands was touted as the zone to be this week. I’m very sceptical of that, yesterday looks like it was our best chance. Everything was too far west and the rest of the week looks arguably too far south and/or east. 
 

I always find in these scenarios it’s best to be outside or near the hot zone because the nature of storms change quickly and you tend to find the best of the action is never in the exact location models may show, so that’s a positive. 
 

The only reason this now painfully long, boring and pathetically sweaty extended summer (Don’t forget, summer started in April this year)  is even remotely acceptable is with copious classic storms, so all in all. 
 

Nights are noticeably drawing in. Just a couple of weeks until September and then we can stick the word heatwave into our back pockets for another 6/7 months. Bring on the rain and wind, the Atlantic systems, then hopefully a long pipe-bursting winter!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Couple of loud booms of thunder from the cell to my w /sw 

[Ryukai]

14 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Temp still only at 22.2C, still a small pocket of cloud over Wolves, not shifting too quickly either, hope it isn't going to have any effect on the teams Europa League performance tonight!

Come to Stoke on Trent, were up to a balmy 27C and still rapidly rising

[Superstormuk]

Update from severe-weather.eu, enhanced risk now for SW and some parts of the SE:

 

[Frosty hollows]

Oh hello you sexy update. Maybe today won't be another sweat fest for no reward for Death Valley

[Jamie M]

Rumbling from the mini thunderstorm earlier.

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

London across to Oxford and upto Cambridge looks primed from 4pm today. 

Cone, POS, Tod and SOR should all add an extra day though 

Yes please  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Right. Time to grab today by the scrough of the neck and get something out of this period of exceptional weather. Any developments I can see, or being reported anywhere in the Midlands or to my South, I want to be straight onto it. Appreciate local reports so much, very vital and useful to the storm chasing trade! 

Love the forecasters on here, and the European ones too. I honestly think we would be lost without them. iPhones and the met office and even the BBC at times fall so far behind the mark in these setups, it’s beyond belief. I think there should be a dedicated spin off channel for severe events, like the weather channel in the states. 

[sparky1972]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Right. Time to grab today by the scrough of the neck and get something out of this period of exceptional weather. Any developments I can see, or being reported anywhere in the Midlands or to my South, I want to be straight onto it. Appreciate local reports so much, very vital and useful to the storm chasing trade! 

Love the forecasters on here, and the European ones too. I honestly think we would be lost without them. iPhones and the met office and even the BBC at times fall so far behind the mark in these setups, it’s beyond belief. I think there should be a dedicated spin off channel for severe events, like the weather channel in the states. 

lets hope we get a storm or 2 out the next cpl of days bud

[Calayte]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Right. Time to grab today by the scrough of the neck and get something out of this period of exceptional weather. Any developments I can see, or being reported anywhere in the Midlands or to my South, I want to be straight onto it. Appreciate local reports so much, very vital and useful to the storm chasing trade! 

Love the forecasters on here, and the European ones too. I honestly think we would be lost without them. iPhones and the met office and even the BBC at times fall so far behind the mark in these setups, it’s beyond belief. I think there should be a dedicated spin off channel for severe events, like the weather channel in the states. 

Will keep you updated if I see anything over my area. Always interesting to know whats going on in different areas. And you are totally right those apps always fall behind, we need some centralised way to report on severe weather.

[BrickFielder]

 Tricky to forecast today in my view. Last nights sounding from Nottingham showed a marked CAP at 700hPa which suggested surface based convection could initiate at around 34C but could become just elevated when temperatures dip below 28C. Yesterday benefited slightly from mid level dynamics which I don't think will be present in the same way today.
 Much of the modelling shows lower humidity in the south with dew points dipping down to 14C which I have serious doubts about considering the current dew points.Precipitation charts suggest a heat island storm for London with chances of further storms at outflow boundaries (likely to have some low level vorticity). We also have convergence zones with precipitation breaking out where dew points are forecast to the highest (further North).
 Cumbria up through north west Scotland would seem to have the best chances for storms today, but bearing in mind dew points currently and the forecast dew points I would not rule out storms else where. I am also drawn to the particularly strong outflow winds from a suggested storm over London.

[Electricmumma]

Okay I think my app (or the weather) is up the pole, just dropped to 28 from the 30 it climbed to from 27 in the space half hour... *blink* *blink*

[Calayte]

Just now, Electricmumma said:

Okay I think my app (or the weather) is up the pole, just dropped to 28 from the 30 it climbed to from 27 in the space half hour... *blink* *blink*

Im still on 23c where i am near Birmingham 

 

[Bristol Aviation]

Currently 28.3*C in Bristol, dew point is at 19.7*C Humidity at 60%

Air feels super dense and sticky , feels hard to breath.

I am sure we will hit 30*C today as temp is rocketing up.

Any chance of thunderstorms in north somerset this evening or night?

[Electricmumma]

4 minutes ago, Calayte said:

Im still on 23c where i am near Birmingham 

 

Down on the coast in East Sussex It was 22 here at 9am, by ten it was 27 by 10.39 it was 30 and now its 28.....humidity 46% dew point 18. 
sky still pretty much clear apart from classic sea haze to my west.. still feels like I’m at melting point though. This heat has been relentless. 

Edited August 11, 2020 by Electricmumma

[Sam Jackson]

31 in southampton and still rising and sticky as hell XD

[Electricmumma]

1 minute ago, Sam Jackson said:

31 in southampton and still rising and sticky as hell XD

Glad I didn’t go to visit my friend there. Though if he gets a storm and I don’t lol

[Sam Jackson]

1 minute ago, Electricmumma said:

Glad I didn’t go to visit my friend there. Though if he gets a storm and I don’t lol

think southampton will break 33 today