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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Forgive me but just how many times before have we seen this? They can’t even predict today because it’s so uncertain - so I really have doubts about anything expected past midnight tonight to remain as good as it has done in recent days.

I’m just waiting for tomorrow’s comment in the forecast write ups about activity in the SE being “limited by _______” (insert anything you want in the blank)

Limited by the seemingly unbreakable cap in the whole south and east, meaning another day looking at nice Altocumulus towers that eventually collapse on themselves. 

As of yesterday, it was 4 days in a row of seeing unstable mid-level Ac Cas for large parts of the day, with absolutely nothing resulting from it all. It's already a record for during my lifetime, but I'd be willing to bet I get up to 7 days of it!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Forgive me but just how many times before have we seen this? They can’t even predict today because it’s so uncertain - so I really have doubts about anything expected past midnight tonight to remain as good as it has done in recent days.

I’m just waiting for tomorrow’s comment in the forecast write ups about activity in the SE being “limited by _______” (insert anything you want in the blank)

I agree models should not be relied upon too heavily. I have however often found WRF-NMM reasonably reliable and what I’m basing my optimism on is not the precise location of any precipitation but the fact that MUCAPE remains generally high to very high with several bouts of convective precipitation breaking out through the period...the fact there are models indicating precipitation breaking out under high heat humidity and instability is enough for me after the past few days, let alone months

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Arome going for another battering for Midlands upto NW England for this evening into tonight and then an MCS moving up through Cumbria into Scotland early hours so can see why Dans forecast has that in the narrative. Looks like a rinse and repeat even down to the crappy little drizzle showers that will creep into SE England tomorrow around 6am again.

I did congratulate the Midlands and NW England along with Wales on Saturday so once again enjoy tonight 

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Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
14 minutes ago, Harry said:

WRF-NMM from tomorrow through until Friday looks sensational with very high instability and potentially numerous rounds of storms

where abouts is the instability 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Arome going for another battering for Midlands upto NW England for this evening into tonight and then an MCS moving up through Cumbria into Scotland early hours so can see why Dans forecast has that in the narrative. Looks like a rinse and repeat even down to the crappy little drizzle showers that will creep into SE England tomorrow around 6am again.

I did congratulate the Midlands and NW England along with Wales on Saturday so once again enjoy tonight 

Nothing happened here last night (other than some distant flashes) and I can almost guarantee nothing will happen here today too. So I'm feeling a bit cranky too.

As for later on in the week, the N is shown to largely become more devoid of activity as it starts to focus down S...

Starting to feel I'll get the worst of both ends with this one.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

been woken up by rumbling thunder to the east of me which is the only thing i don't mind been woken up early to. too bad it's moving away but im sure more activity will follow soon 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

So predictable that we can have hot weather and high humidity for most of England and yet it’s bloody Scotland and Cumbria that end up with the best storms.  It’s like when the western isles got battered back in May even though it was about 15 degrees and cloudy all the time.

Life just isn’t fair.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
16 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Sth Lincs storm shield in full effect, lol, sun trying to poke through but this high level crud is going to keep the temps surpressed and the easterly breeze still keeping things on the fresh/cooler side.

Worth keeping an eye on the elevated stuff moving up from Essex and E Cambs, looks to be pepping up. Also Dew points to our South and East are in some places 19-20c (very juicy indeed). There could be some surprises as always with meteorology. 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
2 minutes ago, nodrog said:

May I post this here? Last nights amazing offerings across the North West! Storm Chase UK - Enjoy

https://youtu.be/cSgFfsBwY6w

When I saw the storms straddling Blackpool I was hoping for a Nodrog video!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

Herne Bay Storm Shield still stands here this morning.

Some drops of rain but that's all.

Elsewhere in the Midlands & the NW it's looking good once again.

image.thumb.png.026f54de05d61e53b7c1c92c52e2a545.pngimage.thumb.png.3b666070ef3bf1d14c73130fd89ac9af.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
6 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

When I saw the storms straddling Blackpool I was hoping for a Nodrog video!

He was definitely out and filming! So I'm sure he will post one at some point.

 

Actually he already has

 

Edited by Southern Storm
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
20 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

where abouts is the instability 

Very much worth bearing in mind this is very much subject to change...

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1D077F49-1F59-4C7A-A70B-254F1564E048.png

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

The small cell over south east Kent is just to my west at the moment, no rain here (just on the edge) but a fair amount of thunder. 
Unfortunately I’m on a team call so can’t go and have a look!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

I must be one of few people who don't want storms but seem to be in a locale this year that keeps getting them and this week seems no exception , must have accidentally kicked a black cat or something

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

Nice bit of convection heading for me as I speak just North of Cambridge. No lightning picking up yet though. It's good to see some organised initiation in this zone though, will be interesting to watch over the next few hours. May well fizzle of course... but who knows 

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Not going to crank it up too much at the moment, after yesterday evening's collapse of that one over B'ham.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

South east has a eh chance then

Definitely, that has been the case for the past few days really. There has been a ‘chance’ of storms across the SE since Friday, albeit a low one. It has been showing now for a few days, however, of a higher chance midweek.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme

Other than a Skew chart, is there another way to view capping inversion? Does CIN represent this? Cheers! 

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
47 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Arome going for another battering for Midlands upto NW England for this evening into tonight and then an MCS moving up through Cumbria into Scotland early hours so can see why Dans forecast has that in the narrative. Looks like a rinse and repeat even down to the crappy little drizzle showers that will creep into SE England tomorrow around 6am again.

I did congratulate the Midlands and NW England along with Wales on Saturday so once again enjoy tonight 

I bet you did it through gritted teeth 

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