Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Bristol Aviation]

Luton cell has also quickly died over Milton Keynes

[weirpig]

Just now, Gord said:

Did the storm just die? Still incredibly dark to my south.

yep   echos  very much on the decline  

[TJS1998Tom]

Well that storm died all of a sudden, from a good 30 or so strikes a minute with once having 90 to more or less nothing... hmmm

[Gord]

Raining here now. But it's like someone turned it off with a switch.

[jake44]

that thing is a monster hope it gets close

[Jamie M]

AROME has early morning arrivals for the SE but I'm not convinced at all.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Reminds me of an episode of storm chasers where they were talking about left split / right split and I believe the left splits tend to weaken with right splits becoming dominant @Paul Sherman?

[staplehurst]

The problem we have is, these storms are surface-based and generated by low-level convergence - they eventually managed to punch through the cap, leading to explosive development. However, the cap is still largely in place, and while the storms create their own environment and tap into the moisture-rich surface air, they are primarily forced just from the surface - so as temperatures at the surface begin to cool  and low-level convergence reduces through the evening, that only leaves the storms with one choice: to become rooted at some elevated level instead and feed off the moisture available there. Problem is the lack of any substantial forcing aloft to support elevated thunderstorms at this time, and so ultimately after an initial flourish they begin to weaken... 

In theory better forcing aloft arrives from the west in an hour or two, so should hopefully see an uptick in elevated thunderstorm activity over mid/north Wales 9-10pm, and then later across NW England...

Edited August 10, 2020 by staplehurst

[Sweatyman]

Yep i can say not 1 flash of lightning. A massive anti climax

[Hirudine]

Towers still going up in Solihull direction.

[Bristol Aviation]

Dying quickly now

[TJS1998Tom]

I guess there's still more potential tonight so things could still pop up

[Sparkiee storm]

Well speechless lol... Just looking forward to some spots of rain now lol, from the ex monster, but its still really dark.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Sparkiee storm

[Southern Storm]

Looks like that cell leaving the north coast of France is part of some sort of shortwave, very discreet, but you can tell if the run the radar back and forth.

Maybe a surprise for the southeast?

 

[weirpig]

looks like  more forming over the Redditch area   

[Gord]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Well speechless lol... Just looking forward to some spots of rain now lol, from the ex monster, but its still really dark.

I know! In disbelief here too! And my wife keeps getting messages on her phone making it flash...which keeps catching the corner of my eye and making me look outside!

[Paul Sherman]

Kirkcaldy yep when the usual SW to NE set up occurs the left split spins away to the North and dies with the right split turning hard right (or to the east) and usually gain a Tornado warning quite quickly as the storm scale environment becomes massively more favourable - I believe in this instance the NW movers should be the stronger Storms. 

With regards to how this evolved Dan has nailed it perfectly in his description and also there is a fair bit of the rain falling into the up draught killing it off as well

[MikeUpjohn]

22 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Currently at the Cat & Fiddle pub on the Western Edge of the Peak District, can't see much in the distance due to extreme haze, not sure whether to stay put or drop further SW

Sat in Macc down below trying to make a decision.

[sparky1972]

Nothing here today, looks like our only chance is thursday, we can only hope.

[Harry]

7 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

AROME has early morning arrivals for the SE but I'm not convinced at all.

There’s a lot of cloud way off to my SE - but even that ARÔME model offers little more than light precipitation to me. Friday night and Saturday night yielded localised downpours, but apart from one rumble early hours Sunday morning, precip was non-electric...more than happy to be pleasantly surprised though

[Bishop Brennan]

Within the space of thirty minutes, we've gone from Iron Maiden to Gary Barlow lol

Totally silent here now.

Bish

[jake44]

3 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Looks like that cell leaving the north coast of France is part of some sort of shortwave, very discreet, but you can tell if the run the radar back and forth.

Maybe a surprise for the southeast?

 

where is that can you screenshot it

[matty40s]

Cauliflower incoming....

[Jamie M]

Must be the outflow spawning a cell to the S of the original one. 

[weirpig]

Here we go again  eyes on South Brum