Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Bolt From Blue]

The plot thickens, do I hit Stockport tonight and drop into my mothers which I could put up with for a good MCS.

Or do I save myself and stay home or head south to Kent which isn't far, and see an average show.

This latest Arome has not helped my choice.

Ah just a decaying storm in the SE sadly.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Bolt From Blue
Not in Kent

[Ryukai]

I know @Mapantz is Automatically going to say "No" but....

If only that was a doppler swirl that would be a HUGE Tornado

Edited August 10, 2020 by Ryukai

[Jamie M]

Over 4 thousand strikes today with over 600 in the last hour! 

[DIS1970]

Strike rate is slowly dropping at the moment, was near 600 an hour or so ago, now around the 400 mark - expecting that to bounce up later this afternoon.

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by DIS1970

[PurpleLED]

27c here, I think there was more cloud earlier which has mostly cleared though unfortunately still a lot of high level cloud though. 

 

Really hoping the cloud can heck off and we can breach 30c which seems to be near the cap from what i read. 

 

Not the most hopeful though. 

[AMeltedFlake]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not seeing that on the UKV?! Particularly in the SE.

Apologies, I should have stated it's following the pattern in the NW!

[BrickFielder]

 Yesterday evening about 8pm I was watching birds soaring on thermals which is pretty unusual for that time of day. Old folklore suggests that this heralds thunderstorms coming in the next few days.
 Its clear that there will be some pretty heavy elevated thunderstorms for the south west and up through Wales ongoing through much of the day. There is also a chance of surface based storms which is a bit marginal.Looking at the sounding for Nottingham overnight then it suggests temperatures in the region of 32/33 degrees providing there is a trigger could produce quite nasty surface based storms. The modelling suggest some low level wind convergence as a triggering event possibly around the M4 and Oxford. Looking at the latest wind flows across the UK suggests the forecast for these convergences is not unreasonable. Most models are not that keen on this and forecasts suggest that temperatures may just not quite reach the point of surface based convection.

[Harry]

33 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

There's still explosive development on the latest Arome, just a tad further North, following the same pattern as the UKV.

Oi oi what’s that in the SE?? What timeframe is this grab @AMeltedFlake?

[SteveB]

That's right over my house - so, unlikely to happen! 

[AMeltedFlake]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Oi oi what’s that in the SE?? What timeframe is this grab @AMeltedFlake?

Sorry mate, it's nothing really, although it does look impressive on that chart

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Sorry mate, it's nothing really, although it does look impressive on that chart

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

and so our depression continues

 

[virtualsphere]

Very dark for lunchtime here in SW Wales. Cars now going past with headlights on. Distant rumbling all morning, nothing overhead as yet but had several downpours.  Had a video call with a colleague earlier based 15 miles up the road, loud thunder heard in the background!

[Zak M]

   

Impressive storm off the coast of Wales near Swansea.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

this line?.... could lead to something huge maybe

[T4Toby]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

   

Impressive storm off the coast of Wales near Swansea.

Mate I’m practically in it and it’s pretty good

[T4Toby]

Yeah it’s really getting pretty exiting on the Gower( the peninsula next to Swansea) 

[ancientsolar]

humidity is getting unbearable in SE Wales,. it's just cloudy and the valleys are getting very hazed 

[Tristrame]

Just plain jane rain from that irish sea stuff here on the SE coast of Ireland 

[viking_smb]

Any idea where the location of the trough is now then?

[Chris Lea-Alex]

29 minutes ago, Bolt From Blue said:

The plot thickens, do I hit Stockport tonight and drop into my mothers which I could put up with for a good MCS.

Or do I save myself and stay home or head south to Kent which isn't far, and see an average show.

This latest Arome has not helped my choice.

Ah just a decaying storm in the SE sadly.

I think your mother needs a socially-distanced visit from you...

[Electricmumma]

Newbie here but fascinated by storms, I love cloud formations and watching a good lightning storm and am slowly trying to learn more about the science behind tracking and predicting them. I’m stuck down here in the SE (Sussex), though right by the sea so get to watch storms in the channel. It’s a lovely 30 here, feeling more like a 33, and boy is the sweat factor turned up high. Heading to the beach soon so will picture the skies. 

[Bolt From Blue]

Brickfielder highlights much better than I ever could what I mentioned earlier, current temps still look short, we need some lift, anything is still possible.

I been chopping and changing my mind about driving to Stockport and staying at my mothers, I could be there for 1800ish, but my beer fridge is full.

Yes I also forgot about the local lockdown up there!

Edited August 10, 2020 by Bolt From Blue
mother

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

humidity is getting unbearable in SE Wales,. it's just cloudy and the valleys are getting very hazed 

I’ve got a raging thunderstorm headache come on all of a sudden - it’s more humid than it has been and it’s currently 32C...

[Had Worse]

Breeze picking up here. Was absolutely calm an hour a go.

Don't know if the storm action to the south of me near Swansea will explide up here later.

Anyway suns trying to break through so might give some energy for initiation of storms later.