Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[MP-R]

I'd probably be able to see the stormclouds out west from here in North Somerset but there's still a blanket of a crud over the area that I can't see anything! I'm wondering if it's the storms further west helping draw up all this low cloud on the eastern side?

[Dreckly]

Really heavy rain around with these storms 

 

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I would sit tight, next area will be from Oxford, up the M40, Brum and NW.

 

I just hope the pumps in the Whaley Bridge Todbrooke Resovoir can cope with a deluge of possible forecast precipitation 

Yes,I think storms might ignite a little further south of Birmingham and north of the M4. After a cool start and a sharp shower, temps are rising nicely. 27c already   so could easily hit low 30s later in my back yard. I hope

[Bolt From Blue]

Most places in the SB initiation area are looking short of 30 if indeed it turns out this is the cap breaker and we don't have anything unforeseen to give a bit of lift.

 With an 8 degree increase needed between now and 1500-1530 (given the temp won't rise anymore after this), It is any ones guess.

The Ovlov 940 turbo is ready and willing within the next hour or two depending on those temps!

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

49 minutes ago, Harry said:

Absolutely @East_England_Stormchaser91 so much so, for the first time in about 15 years I’ve hardly looked at models (had a cheeky peek every now and again I won’t lie).

Literally anywhere could detonate in the coming days, albeit I’m more than happy to confidently rule out SB activity across the SE today - but beyond that it’s a moveable feast of potential. I wish I could remember the exact year, but I think it was maybe 6 years ago or so where MetO warnings and the like all suggested C and W areas were at risk of storms whereas my area in the SE was out of it - despite this a staggeringly noisy and electrified line of storms erupted in the early hours and trundled NNE...since then if you’re under the juice, I’ve learned to rule nothing out. 

Reckon that may have been July 2013 Harry. A big area of storms over The Wash and then a very intense line over Kent. Broke the deadlock after years of storm starvation! I remember seeing the graphics much further west on the forecasts that evening. 

[AMeltedFlake]

There's still explosive development on the latest Arome, just a tad further North, following the same pattern as the UKV.

[Herefordweather]

Suns been out for over an hour now here in Hereford. 26c but extremely humid. 

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

There's still explosive development on the latest Arome, just a tad further North, following the same pattern as the UKV.

My eyes automatically fall onto the feature across the SE... haha 

[Chris.R]

very unexpectedly just got a Lightning notification. Just heard very distant thunder to the south-east.  clouds building in that direction. 24°C.

[Cloudwatcher]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

very unexpectedly just got a Lightning notification. Just heard very distant thunder to the south-east.  clouds building in that direction. 24°C.

Had my headphones on listening to LBC and I could have sworn we just had a rumble near here...but it could have been someone rolling out the wheely bins!

 

[Ryukai]

Well that little green & yellow blob that passed directly overhead (according to the radar) didn't get a single drop to the ground   must be quite warm up there....

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

9 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

There's still explosive development on the latest Arome, just a tad further North, following the same pattern as the UKV.

whats the part in the south east?

[carl1980]

Just back from Wales just missed a storm there,got out the car back home massive rumble of thunder here

[Zak M]

8 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

There's still explosive development on the latest Arome, just a tad further North, following the same pattern as the UKV.

Wind it to tomorrow as well, showing big surface-based storms for southern England...

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

My eyes automatically fall onto the feature across the SE... haha 

It's just showing a dying cloud field from the French storms shown on its 'Radar Reflectivity'. Sadly, these storms (which it's no doubt overdoing either way) die out in the channel.

[weirpig]

Currently  25c  warm  and getting warmer   expect to top around 28  29c 

[Marcus_surfer]

Distant deep rumbles for the past 3 hours here in Swansea with the odd heavy downpour

[AMeltedFlake]

Going to be close to break the temperature needed for the cap, in the next few hours

[Ryukai]

You can see how bad the rain is in Wales on this webcam, by the fact that you can't see! 

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by Ryukai

[Gord]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Currently  25c  warm  and getting warmer   expect to top around 28  29c 

Really pleasant breeze here though.

Looking like we have a half decent chance of storms today. My only worry is that we may end up a bit too far south. But it's one of situations where it's not game over until the last storm has fizzled away.

Although, far from stormy looking right now!

[Mapantz]

19 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

following the same pattern as the UKV.

Not seeing that on the UKV?! Particularly in the SE.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

Really pleasant breeze here though.

Looking like we have a half decent chance of storms today. My only worry is that we may end up a bit too far south. But it's one of situations where it's not game over until the last storm has fizzled away.

Although, far from stormy looking right now!

Mmm  breeding  ground  comes to mind    we shall see 

[LightningLover]

10 minutes ago, Lance M said:

It's just showing a dying cloud field from the French storms shown on its 'Radar Reflectivity'. Sadly, these storms (which it's no doubt overdoing either way) die out in the channel.

I suppose I was thinking more about @staplehurst’s SLGT zone for the Channel Islands and the extreme Sussex coastline lol

[Gordon Webb]

I know the GFS is a source of amusement but somebody did post on the model thread a few days that GFS had shifted the activity for Monday further North , Know it's not much but a little win for the GFS in a run of losses

[Guest]

Goodness looks like nothing here looking at the model output - as usual the Bournemouth storm shield cranking up to full power.