Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Gordon Webb]

20 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

Although I got temps forecast to hit 29-31 I fear I'm to far S/E for anything storms to break out,I think it more N/W of here tbh 

Birmingham Westwards for the midlands I reckon

edit - this is completely an opinion and based on no data whatsoever

Edited August 10, 2020 by Gordon Webb

[Tristrame]

Waiting patiently now for those storms moving northwest off Pembrokeshire to slam into wexford and wicklow here in SE Ireland

[Raindrops]

2 minutes ago, Tristrame said:

Waiting patiently now for those storms moving northwest off Pembrokeshire to slam into wexford and wicklow here in SE Ireland

Make sure to share 

Edited August 10, 2020 by Raindrops

[Dale Hay]

That thunder at 0:13 ...  

Now that's a bang!

 

[weirpig]

Breaks in  the cloud   but still gloomy here    currently 18.8c 

[Dreckly]

Proper storm approaching here now.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

So where do we apply for the cone of silence?

[Jamie M]

Just now, Mitch perrott said:

So where do we apply for the cone of silence?

We will have to ask Paul's permission to extend it to NE/E Kent. Diabolical scenes here but patience is key!

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Jamiee said:

We will have to ask Paul's permission to extend it to NE/E Kent. Diabolical scenes here but patience is key!

I'm melting ;-;

[weirpig]

Suns out finally   19.7c     hopefully we can now start to climb   

[Stuart]

there go our weather warning for my area for the highland it  gone and removed for Monday

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Stuart said:

there go our weather warning for my area for the highland it  gone and removed for Monday

Yep   changes  to the areas.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Mapantz]

60 mm of rain is possible in an hour with a very small chance of 150 mm in 3 or 4 hours.

From the MetOffice.

[Ryukai]

There's a couple of cams on SW coast of Wales if anyone's interested.

Webcamtaxi Interactive World Map of Online Webcams

WWW.WEBCAMTAXI.COM

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Navigate through our Webcamtaxi World Map for all the Cameras available throughout the World

 

[Midlander]

I assume this means, that an Amber warning will be issued when confidence increases?

Edited August 10, 2020 by AppleUK 123

[DIS1970]

Cloud cover exiting northwards now, sun is out, now let's just see what happens. Time is ,10:48 temp is 20.2C, if i remember - i'll keep an eye on it.

[weirpig]

Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

I assume this means, that a Amber warning will be issued when confidence increases?

I would have thought.  With  some of the rainfalls being mentioned   some areas  may well  struggle 

[Gordon Webb]

23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

60 mm of rain is possible in an hour with a very small chance of 150 mm in 3 or 4 hours.

From the MetOffice.

just for clarification that is a separate warning from the general thunderstorm and covers 16:00 to 03.00 and from Birmingham North Westwards into Wales and NW England , thankfully I'm just to the SE and not included in that warning so should miss most if not all of that and that pretty much ties in with other forecasts

Edited August 10, 2020 by Gordon Webb

[Gord]

Bits of pieces north of Wolverhampton developing.

Going by what's happening, and looking at the forecasts/warnings, wondering if we're going to be acting as the spawning ground again?

More good news for the northwest if so.

[Bolt From Blue]

I was convinced enough yesterday to go on a rare chase, however it seems I may need to rethink my strategy. Wales is much too far.

So with all the uncertainty what DO we know?

1. CW have taken off the MOD risk.

2. We need 30-32 to break the cap, currently looking too close for comfort.

3. Rapid development over the SW while nice to see might increase high level cloud over the initiation area this afternoon.

4. Here in East Anglia we won't see anything even though we will reach 30 because of an increase in 850 temps (ironic warm nose).

5. None of the above may mean anything.

So I guess it will just have to be blind faith, patience and luck.

 

[Had Worse]

Big rumbles, stopped about 15 minutes ago. There were several in all.

Getting dark to my South and radar has some puples in it to.

[Calayte]

34 minutes ago, Dale Hay said:

That thunder at 0:13 ...  

Now that's a bang!

 

Bet you needed some clean trousers after that! 

[Dreckly]

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With such a stagnant pressure cooked pattern, it’s a very tough one to forecast. There’s no telling on where or when these storms will crop up. The likelihood remains further west at the current time, but I’ve certainly seen developments take place before outside of highlighted areas. Nowhere is guaranteed a direct hit, even if you are right under the highest risk warning zone. I’ve got my eye on that lot to the SW at the minute and having a very tough debate with myself whether to head west today, or watch and wait later for further development..

[Calayte]

That area in the SW is looking very interesting now. Just have to see how that keeps on developing through the next few hours. Cloud has now gone and temps are rising fast in the Birmingham area, lets try for low 30's to get those storms ignited!!!