Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Maybe....

Hmmmm anyone else think we might have q chance, cells developing near South end tooo

[Southern Storm]

Well I was going to call it quits for the night, but I just have this niggling feeling that something is going to happen, now I'm not at all sure if what is showing on the radar was modeled, but the atmosphere looks quite dynamic at the moment.

Apart from the obvious cells developing down in the southeast, you also have some heading towards the southwest, and a line forming coming up through northwestern France, I can't imagine them just dying in this environment, I'm currently in my garden, wearing just my boxer shorts and it's midnight, its crazy 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Southern Storm

[ancientsolar]

8 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

What about the heavy rain showers approaching Devon and Cornwall movin North East ish... Are they something to keep an eye on... 

I wonder about those too, some really beefy downpours from those ! 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

3 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Not going to lie, that elevated rumble made me go 'ahhhhh...' out loud! Flashes are becoming more frequent and brighter it seems too.

Could be getting closer

[alexisj9]

Got to be honest, I don't actually want these lines to get here, gonna be very gusty. 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Got to be honest, I don't actually want these lines to get here, gonna be very gusty. 

How gusty are we talking >~<

[Bolt From Blue]

12 hours ago, Lance M said:

Severe Weather Outlook - Aug 9th, 2020

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

Isolated severe storms with a threat for severe winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall are possible across England, France, Spain, the southern Balkan...

I don't recall seeing this site before. It's done in the same style as the SPC Outlooks over the pond, but for all of Europe!

This was posted much earlier today.

[StormLoser]

Met Office forecast a short trough forming in northern France / Belgium. Those Channel showers look like they are the beginning of it. I'm not really sure of the Met Office's pressure charts, but I think they forecast it rotating and heading into SE England as a north-south aligned trough tomorrow.

I think this might be worth watching.

The south-west showers do not (yet) appear to be electrified?

Fingers crossed....!   

Edited August 9, 2020 by StormLoser

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Met Office forecast a short trough forming in northern France / Belgium. Those Channel showers look like they are the beginning of it. I'm not really sure of the Met Office's pressure charts, but I think they forecast it rotating and heading into SE England as a north-south aligned trough tomorrow.

I think this might be worth watching.

The south-west showers do not (yet) appear to be electrified?

Fingers crossed....!   

So how many hours till it reaches us?.... 

[Rush2019]

2 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Its looking good for where I am and it'll be the first proper test of the pumps down at Toddbrook Res if those rainfall rates come to fruition. 

Yes, I hope the reservoir doesn't get overwhelmed and Whaley stays safe.  If that latest ukv run comes into fruition we are in for a stonker.  I'll be radar and sky watching as soon as l finish work mid afternoon.

[StormLoser]

9 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

So how many hours till it reaches us?.... 

Ermmmm   as a retired librarian of uncertain disrepute, I confess I haven't the faintest. Judging by the MO pressure charts the rotation is slow and could be into tomorrow morning.

Then again, given the uncertain low-pressure mess over northern Europe and UK, it might not do anything. 

Alexisj9 felt the outflow from central French storms was pushing it, so it may disassemble before rotating.

Edited August 9, 2020 by StormLoser

[TJS1998Tom]

Lightning now being picked up in this area with the heavy rain 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

3 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Ermmmm   as a retired librarian of uncertain disrepute, I confess I haven't the faintest. Judging by the MO pressure charts the rotation is slow and could be into tomorrow morning.

Then again, given the uncertain low-pressure mess over northern Europe and UK, it might not do anything. 

Looks like its moving more east than north

[Bolt From Blue]

Yes peeling away to the east a touch now, plus the outflow feeding them has lost strength it seems.

Time for bed, big day tomorrow chasing.

[Josh Rubio]

Wonder if this is of any interest? Seems to be making its way slowly in a generally northerly direction. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Josh Rubio

[viking_smb]

Just now, Josh Rubio said:

Wonder if this is of any interest? Seems to be making its way slowly in a generally northerly direction. 

going off the track it is heading towards SE ireland, but will clip cornwall though 

[UKSupercell]

4 hours ago, Cableguy said:

Cant get my head around how poor it looks for CS/SE given it's a plume type scenario what are we potentially missing other than luck?

Ain't been on this thread for a few hours, but refreshed to see this. 

It's like this year on year mate. I have some weather book which claims the SE has the highest thunderstorm activity in the UK. Yeah....utter b*llocks! Maybe the Kent east coast on a good summer, but otherwise, I've been saying for years that the best place to be for homegrown thunderstorms is the midlands up into Lincolnshire. 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Just watched the BBC forecast, really not looking good for the SE and E for significant rain, never mind storms. 

Boo hiss. 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Just now, Norfolk Sheep said:

Just watched the BBC forecast, really not looking good for the SE and E for significant rain, never mind storms. 

Boo hiss. 

Welp.... not only the most boring part of the uk and hottest, but also the capital of busts.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It’s still there...

[Jason Lancett]

Just been for a walk along the seafront in Dover.. I can see distant flashes.. just east of Calais but I don't think they will make the journey across the channel it's killing them..

[Bristol Aviation]

Few cells popping up over north London now

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s still there...

Its your pet false strike, feed it well with tears of sorrow;-;

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Bristol Aviation said:

Few cells popping up over north London now

Let's see if anything comes of them

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Jason Lancett said:

Just been for a walk along the seafront in Dover.. I can see distant flashes.. just east of Calais but I don't think they will make the journey across the channel it's killing them..

These should be elevated so I don’t think it’s the channel, it’s that the conditions aren’t as favourable away from the continent. Think that’s changing by the hour though