Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Eastern Scotland WX]

yep the Midlands are spoilt when it comes to storms, particularly this year, no decent kent clippers either this summer.

[viking_smb]

14 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Based on CW's forecast, for those more experienced in the area what is a good vantage point/area to position when waiting for these storms?

my area, caerphilly mountain is a good vantage point A469 is the road, also the bwlch between maesteg and nantymoel (i wouldnt recommend going up there during a storm though) A4061 for that road just come off at jct 36 bridgend, follow signs for A4061 ogmore vale and its past nantymoel turn onto the A4107 I work up that way so got local knowledge as its on our ABMU run, happy to meet people tomorrow afternoon as off, having said that I dont think we have ever been under a severe so could be interesting, will be taking my offshore gear with me then as that is waterproof  and i've got derv in the car   

Edited August 9, 2020 by viking_smb

[Cheshire Freeze]

I remember a 'loaded gun' scenario in July 2015 I think it was? I remember the cap breaking and clouds shooting upwards violently and rapidly. Was absolutely amazing to see. Cap broke around Shropshire I think and storms fired N from there

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Probably something similar tomorrow, according to CW we need 32-33c for the cap to break tomorrow. 

[Zak M]

Well I won't be getting any action tomorrow unfortunately but I will set my timelapse camera up to my west and hopefully I will be able see some massive CBs shooting up 

[Eye to the sky]

Just now, MAXcrazystorm said:

yep the Midlands are spoilt when it comes to storms, particularly this year, no decent kent clippers either this summer.

To be fair to us in the Midlands (I live just north of Derby)this is the first year in a long time that we've had a decent amount of storms.I have counted 6 this year here.Believe me the last 10 or so years have been terrible here.And I alway thought the South and south east was the place to be in  the last few years for storms.I think this year we have just been very lucky indeed.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Definitely no storms here in the central belt of Scotland. Seen 1 flash so far this summer lmao.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

welp met office can just remove south east of the weather warning smh haha

 

[Ian Ballinger]

2 hours ago, Had Worse said:

I'm just West of you at Hafen Y Mor, got another week here hopefully to enjoy some storms.

I've not seen a decent one since I moved here, fingers crossed

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

welp met office can just remove south east of the weather warning smh haha

 

Why would they do that?

[Eastern Scotland WX]

umm because there is no risk... 
i do see the met office upgrading to an amber thunderstorm warning tomorrow across the W Midlands up to Lancaster to E Wales. 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, TomW said:

Why would they do that?

its just a joke as all this year we have had warnings and they never have been true

 

[Had Worse]

Just now, Ian Ballinger said:

I've not seen a decent one since I moved here, fingers crossed

I live on edge of Derbyshire/ Gtr Manchester and its been average there to. Perhaps this is my holiday bonus.

[carl1980]

2 hours ago, Had Worse said:

I'm just West of you at Hafen Y Mor, got another week here hopefully to enjoy some storms.

I'm at hafen y mor now ,home tomorrow though

[Wilxy]

2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

its just a joke as all this year we have had warnings and they never have been true

 

Nothing has started yet and its a long way to go between now and Thursday just relax

[AnvilCrawlers]

21 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

why does the south east suck for storms now ,,,, always the midlands get the storms nowhere elseeeee

 

 

21 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

why does the south east suck for storms now ,,,, always the midlands get the storms nowhere elseeeee

 

The Midlands is a big area and not all the Midlands get storms,tends to be east or west of here

[Paceyboy]

20 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

yep the Midlands are spoilt when it comes to storms, particularly this year, no decent kent clippers either this summer.

We had been storm starved compared to much of the country in much of the last decade though here in the west midlands.

Think i had a 5 storms in 6 days in the recent spell of thundery weather in June this year.

My wife was in labour and at the same time we had a spectacular light show on the 16th up at Burton on Trent.

[A Face like Thunder]

Watching the 7-day forecast on the BBC Countryfile programme this evening, there is certainly the potential for big thundery activity this week but, as usual, the question is where? Western fringes, Irish Sea, Isle of Man tomorrow, North and West of England on Tuesday and then moving further North and East on Wednesday and Thursday. Within those parameters though, it is anybody's guess where the activity will actually land. I am heading North West to North East on Tuesday and what I do know is that I shall probably get wet at some point in the next few days!   

[Paul Sherman]

The Sadistic side of me wants us to go 2 years without a single flash of lightning at night as that would be some record to beat.

But being serious I think those of us in the South East and East Anglia better get used to this going forward as things have changed massively climatically over the last 5-10 years and I have almost zero confidence in us getting anything this week other than 30-35c unrelenting heat interspersed with crappy light rain from Accas Build up whilst favoured areas (which used to be us) get the goods. There is way too much dry air getting advected into the South East from the near Continent from these crud easterlies that tend to plant themselves in every month except Dec/Jan and Feb when they are actually any good for us.

Its complete crud but if its heat and belting summers like the South of France your after then the SE might just be the place to live, if its storms forget it full stop

I dread to think what my annual rainfall total is but am guessing after a dry March, April, May average June and super dry July and August we are running below 150mm which is almost arid/desert climate

Like I said the other day will congratulate the usual suspects even before this has begun already and enjoy some belters whilst we swelters 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

wow, latest UKV is just incredible for storms tomorrow! 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

The Sadistic side of me wants us to go 2 years without a single flash of lightning at night as that would be some record to beat.

But being serious I think those of us in the South East and East Anglia better get used to this going forward as things have changed massively climatically over the last 5-10 years and I have almost zero confidence in us getting anything this week other than 30-35c unrelenting heat interspersed with crappy light rain from Accas Build up whilst favoured areas (which used to be us) get the goods. There is way too much dry air getting advected into the South East from the near Continent from these crud easterlies that tend to plant themselves in every month except Dec/Jan and Feb when they are actually any good for us.

Its complete crud but if its heat and belting summers like the South of France your after then the SE might just be the place to live, if its storms forget it full stop

I dread to think what my annual rainfall total is but am guessing after a dry March, April, May average June and super dry July and August we are running below 150mm which is almost arid/desert climate

Like I said the other day will congratulate the usual suspects even before this has begun already and enjoy some belters whilst we swelters 

Hi paul

what are your thoughts regarding wales and western britain for tonight and the coming days?

 

Cheers

Rob

[Jamie M]

Wow, the simulated UKV satellite on the latest run is amazing.

Not often you see a storm explode in the cloudcover on it!!

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Incredible from the UKV ( latest)

[Cheshire Freeze]

That UKV run is utterly bonkers for the NW Mids

Rainfall rates almost off the scale.

Edited August 9, 2020 by CreweCold

[Ben Sainsbury]

Current thinking for me tomorrow anyway is positioning SW/W of Birmingham near the Bromsgrove area should everything go to plan.

That UKV is an absolute peach btw, never seen returns that purple for that wide an area ever.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury