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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
27 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Initiation well north of a line from London and south Wales once again, maybe one day Herts will get a good storm again....enjoy further north especially north west England which looks likely to be in the sweet spot again  

Definitely been a repetitive theme past few years now...best storm activity seems to initiate further North over, rather than South of the UK during plume type setups.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
7 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Cant get my head around how poor it looks for CS/SE given it's a plume type scenario what are we potentially missing other than luck?

Understand the feeling considering how the SE has missed the storms for some time.

We have 5 days of potential, IMO excellent potential, I get the feeling it will be like buses, wait ages for 1 then 3 turn up.

That's enough Science from me.

?️

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Not one for looking too far ahead for forecasting convective weather, especially from media forecasts, but I did feel a little "giddy" when I saw the countryfile forecast for the week ahead, especially for Weds/Thurs for my location.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Latest UKV 15z:

Few snapshots for tomorrow:

11A02656-E4F5-498C-8E18-BB76845D92EC.thumb.png.10b555b8d50b0508c7ce92940285fe68.pngD2CC0A59-15F2-4D80-B853-B6ACA873BEEF.thumb.png.8d5670ebfc9bafb3b9c8fa3c8c66f1ac.pngA4CA3BDE-F4CA-4E25-AEC9-378DF449E864.thumb.png.a7b13a23874c4075f3d59635721f5b03.png5BC3ADDA-FBDA-4E90-9F4D-CA547DF86FD1.thumb.png.c22974702f302124229d9255cbd47b3d.png932B1629-561E-4E98-9F4D-D6BF1F7C1CF8.thumb.png.57491ff1b4153ccd26d8c1662db3894c.png

Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Just now, Mr Frost said:

Latest UKV 15z:

Tomorrow:

11A02656-E4F5-498C-8E18-BB76845D92EC.thumb.png.10b555b8d50b0508c7ce92940285fe68.pngD2CC0A59-15F2-4D80-B853-B6ACA873BEEF.thumb.png.8d5670ebfc9bafb3b9c8fa3c8c66f1ac.pngA4CA3BDE-F4CA-4E25-AEC9-378DF449E864.thumb.png.a7b13a23874c4075f3d59635721f5b03.png5BC3ADDA-FBDA-4E90-9F4D-CA547DF86FD1.thumb.png.c22974702f302124229d9255cbd47b3d.png932B1629-561E-4E98-9F4D-D6BF1F7C1CF8.thumb.png.57491ff1b4153ccd26d8c1662db3894c.png

Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 

That huge mass of red gorgeousness and the only thing that has my attention is the tiny red dots in the SE on the 23z grab

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

To my SE

C2404CEB-D74B-4F52-B3C2-D075BF12D388.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Latest UKV 15z:

Few snapshots for tomorrow:

Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 

I have got my camera ready and prepared to travel in my car if anything comes north of the border 

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Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

Tropical sunset scenes looking west towards Leeds a bit ago, although minutes later it was obscured by North Sea clag, which is outrageous in August... I expect that rubbish in April and May! 20200809_195431.thumb.jpg.187d50fe64d4db95f05cad10dab6338a.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
1 hour ago, Cableguy said:

Cant get my head around how poor it looks for CS/SE given it's a plume type scenario what are we potentially missing other than luck?

It's getting truly tiresome this year! We have to roast in the highest temps, while further north and west reaps all of the rewards! Looks like we've already lost one out of the few days' potential tomorrow! What's the betting the others all go the same way and we end the week stormless?

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Just now, Lance M said:

It's getting truly tiresome this year! We have to roast in the highest temps, while further north and west reaps all of the rewards! Looks like we've already lost one out of the few days' potential tomorrow! What's the betting the others all go the same way and we end the week stormless?

there are a couple of showers approaching the south west, dont think they will amount to much.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
3 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

there are a couple of showers approaching the south west, dont think they will amount to much.

It's the energy contained in that area that will develop over Wales even if those don't.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
33 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Latest UKV 15z:

Few snapshots for tomorrow:

11A02656-E4F5-498C-8E18-BB76845D92EC.thumb.png.10b555b8d50b0508c7ce92940285fe68.pngD2CC0A59-15F2-4D80-B853-B6ACA873BEEF.thumb.png.8d5670ebfc9bafb3b9c8fa3c8c66f1ac.pngA4CA3BDE-F4CA-4E25-AEC9-378DF449E864.thumb.png.a7b13a23874c4075f3d59635721f5b03.png5BC3ADDA-FBDA-4E90-9F4D-CA547DF86FD1.thumb.png.c22974702f302124229d9255cbd47b3d.png932B1629-561E-4E98-9F4D-D6BF1F7C1CF8.thumb.png.57491ff1b4153ccd26d8c1662db3894c.png

Recurring theme at the moment - think this model has a Wales/NW England bias. 

Looks to me as though thats joined the euro4 and keeps things even further west?east of those storms looks an asbolute scorcher

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Posted
  • Location: Spalding Lincolnshire
  • Location: Spalding Lincolnshire
56 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Been cloudy and chilly here today because of the wind, not alot to look forward to storm wise as it all seems to be west of here.

Where have you been? I've been out in the garden at pinchbeck and have got sun burnt. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Elevated convection in the morning across the SW and Wales where the in the areas where mid level cloud abundant, here CAPE around 750Jkg, so lightning and heavy precipitation the main hazards. Although some mid-level cloud extends further east towards southeast England drier higher level air should prevent much elevated convection here.

image.thumb.png.09e2bbb1d99d43b353be3e8291586333.png

Pic 1: 10/0600 UTC Mid Level Clouds from EC

image.thumb.png.34f3269865778f5ac13768fedc3d49ba.png

Pic 2: SkewT to from GFS valid over mid Wales at 10/0600 UTC

This elevated convection then extends north as the upper trough which assists in de-stabilising the zone pushes northwards, it is then the question whether the cap that exists to the E of this zone can be broken and release, always a close call in these events but a combination of surface heating and convergence (including from outflows left by the elevated convection earlier in the day) could combine to release some isolated but extremely violent thunderstorms (>2500Jkg of CAPE, with very large hail, strong winds, frequent lightning and incredible precipitation rates possible). Difficult to judge area at the highest risk from these....but I'd guess a zone from Wilshire towards Greater Manchester....and these could take well into the day early evening to fire (if they do at all).

image.thumb.png.a9933746b1b2cdb0544f5dad3a911493.png

Pic 3: SkewT to from GFS valid over West Midlands at 10/1800 UTC

Edited by KeegansPerm
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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
4 minutes ago, KeegansPerm said:

Elevated convection in the morning across the SW and Wales where the in the areas where mid level cloud abundant, here CAPE around 750Jkg, so lightning and heavy precipitation the main hazards. Although some mid-level cloud extends further east towards southeast England drier higher level air should prevent much elevated convection here.

image.thumb.png.09e2bbb1d99d43b353be3e8291586333.pngimage.thumb.png.34f3269865778f5ac13768fedc3d49ba.png

Pic 1: 10/0600 UTC Mid Level Clouds

Pic 2: SkewT to from GFS valid over mid Wales at 10/0600 UTC

This elevated convection then extends north as the upper trough which assists in de-stabilising the zone pushes northwards, it is then the question whether the cap that exists to the E of this zone can be broken and release, always a close call in these events but a combination of surface heating and convergence (including from outflows left by the elevated convection earlier in the day) could combine to release some isolated but extremely violent thunderstorms (>2500Jkg of CAPE, with very large hail, strong winds, frequent lightning and incredible precipitation rates possible). Difficult to judge area at the highest risk from these....but I'd guess a zone from Wilshire towards Greater Manchester....and these could take well into the day early evening to fire (if they do at all).

image.thumb.png.a9933746b1b2cdb0544f5dad3a911493.png

Pic 3: SkewT to from GFS valid over mid Wales at 10/1800 UTC

jesus, never seen soo much cape over mid wales tomorrow eve, 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Wow Convective Weather forecast is a peach for the Midlands up to about Greater Manchester

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

Storm watch issued for tomorrow from me...
> No High lightning risk yet as the details still need to be determined but with the combination of 25-35kt deep shear, strong low level shear, High CAPE levels, moderate lapse rates should allow for some supercells to develop and possibly a couple of tornado's tomorrow as well as large hail in places and flooding. As these storms develop they will begin to make their journey north they will become more elevated in nature reducing the supercell risk and hail risk but frequent lightning still expect across northern and north east England. 

10-08-20.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
2 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Looks like quite a decent Tornado risk tomorrow according to Skew t from the GFS

weathe.JPG

Not impossible, generally dew points are too high in GFS. So in reality I'd expect the LCL (convective cloud base) to be a fair bit higher than shown by GFS. A higher LCL reduces tornado risk.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Based on CW's forecast, for those more experienced in the area what is a good vantage point/area to position when waiting for these storms?

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