Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

[Superstormuk]

No matter how we look at the situation, this sustained heat, followed by a potential breakdown of the weather (introduction of low pressure) later next week, will most likely give some places potent storms. 

From what I speculate the South and South East are over due a plume style event this year. I remember even last year sitting up late into the night watching huge, raised storms as they tracked up from the channel and passed directly over me. Some of the lightening I saw last year was the best I've ever seen. The issue just now is that the air is too warm and dry, with no trigger. 

However, the current trend shows that the Midlands and North West are seeing most of the action, so again any potential activity may be focused in these regions again.

My fingers are crossed. 

Edited August 8, 2020 by Superstormuk

[Jamie M]

9 hours ago, Lance M said:

Nice. I guess NW is outdoing Blitz these days!

It appears so on a night like this. Blitzortung & lightningmaps most likely thinks that those flashes of lightning were false positives & removes them away within minutes. It happened to me a week or so ago with a single flash here that suddenly removed itself off maps within minutes.

I'm pretty sure Netweather doesn't have a "false positive detection" like Blitzortung & Lightningmaps appear to do. 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Again UKV 03z run delivers big time storm action!

Few midnight frames for the coming days: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

ECM midnight for same days above:

 

Selected highlight charts from the UKV 03z run: Monday through Wednesday.

 

Pretty much everywhere at risk! NW England probably getting the best of it all from current output/charts.

Seen @Weather-history mention this below on the NW regional thread!

North West England weather forecast from the Met Office:

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms through this period which could be interspersed with clearer and sunny spells. Staying warm and humid during both day and night.

As ever for any new members viewing this...don’t take these charts as gospel. 
Will change about twenty times before the days above arrive. 

Lovely to look at though! 

Have a good weekend everyone.

Edited August 8, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Had Worse]

I'll not take it as gospel as I'm currently in Pwwhelli on holiday and would miss predicted storms.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 08 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 09 Aug 2020

ISSUED 06:55 UTC Sat 08 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A pronounced elevated mixed layer (EML) will reside over much of central / southern / eastern England throughout Saturday, creating an environment with very steep mid-level lapse rates. An upper ridge will extend across much of the nearby Continent, placing a relatively light southwest flow aloft across the British Isles. The EML will act as a cap to surface-based convection, despite building CAPE due to diurnal heating. However, any minor impulses aloft (and NWP guidance does suggest some weak PVA at times) could trigger some elevated convection with bases typically around 10-12,000ft at almost any time during this forecast period, and almost anywhere within the LOW threat level. However, most areas will remain void of lightning activity.

The lack of substantial forcing or shear aloft suggests that any cells that do manage to develop will probably not last particularly long, but may be deep enough to produce a few lightning strikes. Much of any rain will probably evaporate before reaching the ground, such is the depth of hot, dry air below. Highlighting specific areas with a higher risk of lightning is difficult given no obvious forcing mechanisms. However, as the flow at ~850mb backs and strengthens during the evening and night hours, increasing warm advection will encourage lift / istentropic upglide along two main zones of interest - one from east Wales across the north Midlands into northern England, and then another over the eastern English Channel into SE England. Consequently, there may be an uptick in rather scattered lightning activity over these areas during the overnight period, but confidence is not particularly high and it is still possible other random isolated cells could develop elsewhere too. A low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight the area most at risk (especially towards the eastern side), but another SLGT may be considered for SE England if confidence increases.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-08

 

[Chris.R]

A bit sceptical about whether I’ll see anything at my location but waiting for WRF to go out as far as Tuesday. Currently only goes to Monday afternoon. It ends with a westerly wind which always makes me feel bad.

[ChannelThunder]

33 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Again UKV 03z run delivers big time storm action!

Few midnight frames for the coming days: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

ECM midnight for same days above:

 

Selected highlight charts from the UKV 03z run: Monday through Wednesday.

 

Pretty much everywhere at risk! NW England probably getting the best of it all from current output/charts.

Seen @Weather-history mention this below on the NW regional thread!

North West England weather forecast from the Met Office:

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms through this period which could be interspersed with clearer and sunny spells. Staying warm and humid during both day and night.

As ever for any new members viewing this...don’t take these charts as gospel. 
Will change about twenty times before the days above arrive. 

Lovely to look at though! 

Have a good weekend everyone.

Uh oh, @Paul Sherman... surely not a NW and midlands-only affair again!?

BBC app is casually giving me one set of 30 hours of constant lightning symbols, soon followed by a 38-hour set. Never seen the likes, even from that app

[Jamie M]

"And another one"

MO Yellow Thunderstorm Warning country wide during the course of Wednesday

 

Writeup:

Areas of thunderstorms are likely to develop over parts of the UK or nearby continent during the middle of next week, and will generally track north or north-westwards, potentially affecting all parts of the UK at some points during this period. Whilst the most intense thunderstorms, in some instances associated with large hail, will most probably be those triggered by the high temperatures of the day over England and Wales, other areas of storms producing heavy rainfall and frequent lightning could reach further north across Scotland and Northern Ireland. These could occur at any time of the day. Where the storms occur, rainfall totals of 30-40 mm could fall in an hour, with some locations potentially receiving 60-80 mm in 3 hours, although these will be fairly isolated.

 

[Methuselah]

How I love the Thunder Smurf!    

 

[Stuart]

I bet in the next the few days the yellow warning be all gone for the highlands but cross my fingers it dont get removed   

[ancientsolar]

Looks a bit like a humid Plume, better than an atlantic break down .. 
This looks like one of those Scenerios ... "A thunderstorm to clear the air" people will say.. but the air doesn't seem to clear in this case..  

[Eagle Eye]

Monday Tuesday happy days Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday happy days

Edited August 8, 2020 by Xanderp009

[The PIT]

I wouldn't get excited yet at the moment there's a lot of changes day to day so I wouldn't get excited until the evening before.

[Eagle Eye]

If this keeps going were probably going to have the longest thundery breakdown in history

[ChannelThunder]

13 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

If this keeps going were probably going to have the longest thundery breakdown in history

I'll believe that when I see it. I remember similar things being said in the past ahead of potentially very thundery periods, and the outcomes being very disappointing. Also, 2020 has been the King of disappointment storm-wise so far. It's probably make-or-break time for the whole season across the south of the UK over the next few days.

[TJS1998Tom]

Staying in Silverdale whilst these storms are happening and this looks great for the West if it came off. Could be some good night hour lightning displays 

[James1979]

5 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I'll believe that when I see it. I remember similar things being said in the past ahead of potentially very thundery periods, and the outcomes being very disappointing. Also, 2020 has been the King of disappointment storm-wise so far. It's probably make-or-break time for the whole season across the south of the UK over the next few days.

There's been a few years competing for King but 2020 is possibly the most dire yet imby. Nevertheless my excitement levels have been raised to 2 out of 10 for next week .... until I see those storm clouds approaching I'll take all forecats with a ton of salt. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

38 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

If this keeps going were probably going to have the longest thundery breakdown in history

I’ve seen this kind of thing progged before and until it happens I certaintly would not place bets on it

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

13 minutes ago, James1979 said:

There's been a few years competing for King but 2020 is possibly the most dire yet imby. Nevertheless my excitement levels have been raised to 2 out of 10 for next week .... until I see those storm clouds approaching I'll take all forecats with a ton of salt. 

All four cats?

thundercats?

[viking_smb]

wonder what staplehurst thoughts are on this, personally I dont think much will happen. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

wonder what staplehurst thoughts are on this, personally I dont think much will happen. 

Sites like convective weather, Estofex, and forecasters like Tony Gilbert etc will no doubt wait until nearer the time before issuing their thoughts or forecasts. We're a long way off pinning exact details with regards to coverage, intensity and timings.

Why do you not think much will happen? There seems to be potential for some strong thunderstorms across a wide risk area next week  

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Sites like convective weather, Estofex, and forecasters like Tony Gilbert etc will no doubt wait until nearer the time before issuing their thoughts or forecasts. We're a long way off pinning exact details with regards to coverage, intensity and timings.

Why do you not think much will happen? There seems to be potential for some strong thunderstorms across a wide risk area next week  

there is potential, but see what happens though, see flash bang flash bangs comment above as well 

[ChannelThunder]

11 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

wonder what staplehurst thoughts are on this, personally I dont think much will happen. 

I imagine he'll just take it day-by-day in terms of outlooks, unless something 2-3 days down the line really sticks out as a potentially severe set-up

Edited August 8, 2020 by Lance M

[viking_smb]

Just now, Lance M said:

 I imagine he'll just take it day-by-day in terms of outlooks, unless something 2-3 days down the line really sticks out as a potentially severe set-up

agreed

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

there is potential, but see what happens though, see flash bang flash bangs comment above as well 

Yes but I'd always take comments like that with a pinch of salt as there's no real evidence to back it up and this isn't that common a situation either. Far more common to have low pressure sweeping in from the west to break our plume down.

Cautious optimism for the thundery potential IMO. There will of course be many who are disappointed given the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms. I take a keen interest though when the Met Office use the phrase 'severe thunderstorms'. I reckon the forecaster who wrote that was twitching as they couldn't fall back on the safety of 'heavy and possibly thundery showers' 

Edited August 8, 2020 by Guest