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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

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With what could be the most thundery spell of the season upcoming I think now is a good time to start a shiny new thread. A little early to go into too much detail on what will happen but some models are bringing in the risk of storms from as early as tomorrow night. There then looks to be a few days where hot, humid air residing over at least the southern half of England and Wales could lead to numerous rounds of thunderstorm activity. This could spread further north at times. Both homegrown and imported storms are a possibility, and with the magnitude of CAPE being forecast some of the storms could be quite spectacular.

The old thread is here

If you want to talk about a lack of storms then the No Storms Club is still open for business.

Keep on chatting 🙂 

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image.thumb.png.438323dc32dc6cac6516b4756d7c5f13.png

Very nice looking sounding from last night. If we get a trigger for next week & this all holds, there's gonna be some beefy homegrown storms kicking off hopefully.

All still incredibly uncertain though but it's definitely looking like a thundery week.

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Given there is a front straddling along on the country for fair parts of this upcoming week, I'd be amazed if it doesn't get very stormy by Monday/Tuesday.

AROME though already has some decent convection developing today on the southern end of the front travelling NE. You can see it on the radar moving towards Dorset.

It then develops quite alot of showers tomorrow into the SE quarter of the country (which limits the most ridiculous heat).

Other models are less keen but even they are widely breaking out storms across many parts of the country broadly aligned with the location of the front that straddles the country, and this slowly edges eastwards looking at the 00z runs over Mon-Weds.

Probably got 3 days of really high potential for storms, and then the upcoming 3 days (Fri-Sun) probably has chances but just not quite as high.

Going to be feeling real tropical as well in the SE...bring on the warm rain!

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If anyone needs an automagic link straight to the latest comments in this new thread use the URL below:

www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94119-storms-and-convective-discussion-7th-august-onwards/?do=getLastComment

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Probably won't come off but still nice to look at

Screenshot_20200807_084948_com.android.chrome.jpg

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A fair few small showers dotted around in the Southwest over Devon and to the S in the Channel. The Hirlam has been onto these for over a day! Be interesting to see what they do as they head over the country. 

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25 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Probably won't come off but still nice to look at

Screenshot_20200807_084948_com.android.chrome.jpg

Uh oh, things already being shunted eastwards? 🥱

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2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Stormy runs being churned out now on a daily basis - will it actually happen though is the question? 😄

This would be pretty spectacular.

UKV: Tuesday 21:00 to Wednesday 03:00

EB253C71-351B-4232-826C-4102A84BE361.thumb.png.dea0f3f12dad1c2304e541c1b67f373b.pngD95ABFEA-FB3F-41F0-8AA2-F636DBCAB24E.thumb.png.b5de1db32b0e5c651fea8797dd566128.png22F6D0E9-C241-408C-821B-243047175773.thumb.png.46b6f7914c254d67d7086347142279dd.pngFDE19C6F-7489-4F9E-91EC-9F7763D686BC.thumb.png.073a2d433d786023ca469b794456be97.png966A243E-8D0C-42BD-92FB-3C9B120B645F.thumb.png.cc62af447a48e4f9efa63804705c352c.png3E5B8300-A576-4A38-8C7C-953B583D230A.thumb.png.b2b99d1cb9c5138cbd94a25a25590e31.png

 

BANK!

I see there is some convection already breaking out across the Dorset/Devon borders 

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Great looking run there Mr.Frost!

As said before, as the heatwave goes on the more unstable things get, especially from Monday onwards, good chance of evening storms kicking off in many different parts of the country and rumbling away into the overnight hours.

Should be a pretty interesting spell coming up now!

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Pokey looking shower heading for Plymouth, would be surprised not to see some sfercis from that shortly. Also worryingly the radar has quite a lot of general rain and convective mess which is heading into Dorset / Hants for Lunchtime.

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26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Pokey looking shower heading for Plymouth, would be surprised not to see some sfercis from that shortly. Also worryingly the radar has quite a lot of general rain and convective mess which is heading into Dorset / Hants for Lunchtime.

hopefully by then the mess can react with the heat 🙂

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Yup and it's very unstable cloud wise out there. We are due some luck in Plymouth.

 

2 flashes in the channel already 

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Just now, ancientsolar said:

hopefully by then the mess can react with the heat 🙂

Doesn't work that way. That sort of broad area of precip rarely re-organises. Its an afternoon spoiler thats all. 

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1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Stormy runs being churned out now on a daily basis - will it actually happen though is the question? 😄
 

Snapshots of the latest UKV: Tuesday 21:00 to Wednesday 03:00

EB253C71-351B-4232-826C-4102A84BE361.thumb.png.dea0f3f12dad1c2304e541c1b67f373b.pngD95ABFEA-FB3F-41F0-8AA2-F636DBCAB24E.thumb.png.b5de1db32b0e5c651fea8797dd566128.png22F6D0E9-C241-408C-821B-243047175773.thumb.png.46b6f7914c254d67d7086347142279dd.pngFDE19C6F-7489-4F9E-91EC-9F7763D686BC.thumb.png.073a2d433d786023ca469b794456be97.png966A243E-8D0C-42BD-92FB-3C9B120B645F.thumb.png.cc62af447a48e4f9efa63804705c352c.png3E5B8300-A576-4A38-8C7C-953B583D230A.thumb.png.b2b99d1cb9c5138cbd94a25a25590e31.png

 

Get me some of that!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A fair few small showers dotted around in the Southwest over Devon and to the S in the Channel. The Hirlam has been onto these for over a day! Be interesting to see what they do as they head over the country. 

I saw this on the way to work in Dorchester this morning looked quite impressive and a good sign for things to come hopfully.

Edited by Rapodo
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Well some storms around already and some convection to the south west of us. Choice record breaking temperatures or storms. Me for storms.

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Yellow warning of thunderstorms from the Met Office! Covers all of the UK Monday and Tuesday with the mention of severe thunderstorms and large hail.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Jamiee said:

Met Office country wide warning for thunderstorms (Monday 00:00 - 23:59)

image.thumb.png.5592704986cc64b058a11a3c69846d89.png

Writeup:

Areas of thunderstorms are increasingly likely to develop over the south of the UK or nearby continent late in the weekend or early next week, and will generally track north or north-westwards, potentially affecting all parts of the UK at some points during this period. Whilst the most intense thunderstorms, in some instances associated with large hail, will most probably be those triggered by the high temperatures of the day over England and Wales, other areas of storms producing heavy rainfall and frequent lightning could reach further north at times over Scotland and Northern Ireland. These could occur at any time of the day. Of the area highlighted, at present the west of Northern Ireland and west of Scotland seem less likely to be affected than other areas, but still could not be ruled out. Where the storms occur, rainfall totals of 30-40 mm could fall in an hour, with some locations potentially receiving 60-80 mm in 3 hours, although these will be fairly isolated.

Beat me to it! 😂😅

Edited by Thunder and Lightning
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