Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


Recommended Posts

ECM is baking hot out to Wednesday, with every day in the low to mid 30s in the SE. Heat gone by Thursday barring the Far East of Norfolk/Suffolk in the high 20s which is the last place to drain the heat. Looking like 7 very hot days in a row including today though, which is a very notable heatwave.

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

Posted Images

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A definate marked NW-SE split coming up. The heat concentrated in the SE, apart from tomorrow which will bring fairly widespread heat through central and eastern parts but not further west, the outlook looks a modest warm spell. A shift in the airstream key reason, a cooler NE flow. Ahead of this in the SE the flow is off a warm continent. Whilst a potential exceptional hot spell will be experienced in the SE, this is not looking like a classic nationwide hot spell.

Yeah. I’m seeing a few people getting carried away with talk of a record hot August but the heat simply isn’t widespread enough for that - I don’t think people realise that the CET area extends as far north as Lancashire, which will be lucky to see high 20s. This definitely isn’t 1995 by any means.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

So incredibly unlucky- you really couldn't make these scenarios up at times in the UK. You get exceptional 850 hPa temps in place and even that isn't enough...

By Monday the front has pushed back NW. So perhaps better temps in the north? Temps dont look much better here though. (NW Wales) N'erly winds and cloud doesn't help I guess!

BRAEU_120.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah. I’m seeing a few people getting carried away with talk of a record hot August but the heat simply isn’t widespread enough for that - I don’t think people realise that the CET area extends as far north as Lancashire, which will be lucky to see high 20s. This definitely isn’t 1995 by any means.

Only one of the stations is in Lancashire (Stonyhurst) and I believe it's the furthest north. With such a warm air mass the averages there will still be high. Cloud cover might suppress daytime maxima in that area but it will also mean some very warm nights.

So I don't think that's a barrier to a very high CET. It also is looking consistently warm to very warm there for at least the next week so the next week is going to produce a very high average.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ian Price said:

By Monday the front has pushed back NW. So perhaps better temps in the north? Temps dont look much better here though. (NW Wales) N'erly winds and cloud doesn't help I guess!

BRAEU_120.gif

74EBB824-9F71-437B-8CAF-3819EE99B626.thumb.png.5a783f6f245cbfb1ce03835277d08d4e.png

Big heat concentrated in the E/SE corner. Midlands very warm. Northern england warm in places.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Only one of the stations is in Lancashire (Stonyhurst) and I believe it's the furthest north. With such a warm air mass the averages there will still be high. Cloud cover might suppress daytime maxima in that area but it will also mean some very warm nights.

So I don't think that's a barrier to a very high CET. It also is looking consistently warm to very warm there for at least the next week so the next week is going to produce a very high average.

I mean, even the forecast for Pershore is still significantly cooler than the SE corner. Very warm yes and I don’t doubt August will be a warm month but there’s nothing to suggest a record-breaking one. August 1995 saw very high temperatures across all of England but this isn’t the case now.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cheese said:

I mean, the forecast for Pershore is still significantly cooler than the SE corner. Very warm yes and I don’t doubt August will be a warm month but there’s nothing to suggest a record-breaking one. 

1995 didn't have many really exceptionally hot days though. It was more consistently around the 30C mark. Pershore could well reach 30C tomorrow and Saturday and probably high 20s after that on Sunday and Monday.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

1995 didn't have many really exceptionally hot days though. It was more consistently around the 30C mark. Pershore could well reach 30C tomorrow and Saturday and probably high 20s after that on Sunday and Monday.

It didn’t, but we still exceeded 30C five times that month in Leeds. Including 5 consecutive days above 30C starting in late July. Chances are we won’t exceed 30C at all this month, let alone 5 days on the trot.

So yeah, Damien is right - this isn’t looking like a classic national heatwave. I’m sure records will fall somewhere but I think August 1995 is more than safe for now. I’d be surprised if even 1997 was threatened.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Remarkable temps for Southern coastal counties on Saturday! A few local records going, I suspect?

1028042215_viewimage(2).thumb.png.ef1b3c9455fec160dd6554753f22a426.png

 

Remarkable differences in temperature also. 14 degrees forecast in my back yard and 35 on the south coast. Crazy 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

74EBB824-9F71-437B-8CAF-3819EE99B626.thumb.png.5a783f6f245cbfb1ce03835277d08d4e.png

Big heat concentrated in the E/SE corner. Midlands very warm. Northern england warm in places.

That is odd to see southern parts of Northern England at 23/24 while 100-150 miles further SE it's 36C 🤔 Not sure I quite believe/get that chart tbh! 

Or maybe I'm just butthurt that chart doesn't show 30C here for Monday 😅

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

That is odd to see southern parts of Northern England at 23/24 while 100-150 miles further SE it's 36C 🤔 Not sure I quite believe/get that chart tbh! 

Or maybe I'm just butthurt that chart doesn't show 30C here for Monday 😅

That's just computer projections though, which people are taking as gospel.    Over 100 miles you will get a much more balanced temperature gradient.    I'd say 22C to 32C  will be the on the day values. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

The next week looks exceptional down south, days upon day of plus 30c. Looking at the models Saturday could be hotter than Friday and Tuesday/Wednesday hotter still.

For my location looks great too? 27 degrees or so for a week? perfect summer weather, hot enough for me, but heat records interesting too, reserved for the SE this time though

Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The last post from me today, got my bugle / trumpet 🎺 ready!:shok:😁

Just wanted to say, looking at the ECM 12z operational it’s not just the SE that’s hot for most of next week..unless I’m misreading the charts, they show nationwide summery conditions with hot sunshine but also a risk of T-Storms too..🔥🌩️☀️😜

PS...I’m happy for you guys in the SE, you deserve this roasting hot spell, enjoy it!:drinks:...stunning output across the board..our summer has been officially rescued following last months filth!!!🙂
734AC764-C9A6-4404-B42C-3C4A1B41BE63.thumb.png.f2c5ab725c53d0e84391429a8051c71e.pngDE2F4402-F034-4FCC-8999-FA18DD9FA696.thumb.png.f13a1a2903425ab2cb489b15065f134d.png6D3E1602-FAAE-4A8F-A854-0627986C5D07.thumb.png.ca8eeadd34e29dd01c3acde0d08b9e2a.png611902B1-D64D-43EE-9121-955CA215D1D5.thumb.png.c1d3a46676e504ce54bc452a8cef7d66.pngC5A705AD-58EE-439C-BCCB-C6DBC73AD208.thumb.png.ae908ccae5d9ff6d5d8069140514fddd.png1EC97F57-72A0-436E-9622-AE5DB304D447.thumb.png.c1d2dcfae7ba9eaf8fdb2dace8581d6a.png840E8C20-2E25-4A35-8881-7C665E575FAB.thumb.png.1807b16471120f15036e081a65b39eb1.png2CAACFF8-4016-410F-B6E5-208A92264720.thumb.png.6aa0f6b4ffa119a3466a1b0835ca4e46.pngBAC15462-DF6C-4721-8869-F28945C5B52F.thumb.png.8618a159f83abcc7d6b84f3887d23408.pngF203F6E9-4984-434B-A089-1AEE1F61AA7D.thumb.png.6900b126122bd022035fddb534510a93.png14EA38AC-D2F9-4370-9339-A19F7960AE02.thumb.png.8b0c23418091c813f0107deeee891740.png6DDE5BB3-EE8B-4D2E-BA73-879C5F4E8E0A.thumb.jpeg.61c95cce1621a8a4fa5e76a0ff08429b.jpeg

Amazing charts but why are all the weather apps showing 22 -27 for tomorrow up north but the temps on the 10 day forecast are in the 30s all week! why arent the apps keeping pace?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

For my location looks great too? 27 degrees or so for a week? perfect summer weather, hot enough for me, but heat records interesting too, reserved for the SE this time though

The odd 30c day here n there in the Mids i reckon. Very nice

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

That's just computer projections though, which people are taking as gospel.    Over 100 miles you will get a much more balanced temperature gradient.    I'd say 22C to 32C  will be the on the day values. 

Ludlow is showing feels like temps of 40 degrees next Wednesday yes i know its a feels like temp not the air temp!

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

UKV 15z temperature summary:

Friday 36C

Saturday 35C

Sunday 33C

Monday 34C

And Tuesday...35C

E9FC1923-0382-42C8-B3F7-549E29E2077A.thumb.png.1fa03ccbbf289158f34a3b157d36ff30.png
 

22C for me on that above chart...bank!!! 😆

Quite an incredible run of heat for many of our Netweather members - whether they like it or not. 😀

Plenty of storms breaking out on that run also!

Soak it up all heat lovers - this is the real deal! 🔥😎

Its the real deal for London but not for us Welsh folk

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...