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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Something that could be missed by most on here is the unlikely event that we see cloudless skies next week 

even with high uppers and slack flow, I can’t see sustained hour after hour of unbroken sunshine that would be required to break our T2M record.  Hot - yes but with the predicted set up, I see too much cloud to achieve the temps some of you are hoping to see. 

Unlikely as pressure falls and the humidity increases, as well as an upper trough close by. Breaking the record maybe a no, but a long stretch in the 30-37c range in the SE is in the all time list for prolonged heat. It’s exceptional regardless.

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Something that could be missed by most on here is the unlikely event that we see cloudless skies next week 

even with high uppers and slack flow, I can’t see sustained hour after hour of unbroken sunshine that would be required to break our T2M record.  Hot - yes but with the predicted set up, I see too much cloud to achieve the temps some of you are hoping to see. 

Definitely agree with this, I think cloud cover probably is a limiting factor here when it comes to record temperatures, especially early next week where uppers are if anything slightly higher again.

Still looks very tropical in nature over the next 7 days, even under clouds your looking well into the 20s and maybe low 30s.

I'd guess we are about to see a run of 5-6 days above 32c somewhere which would be up there with the hottest spells of the last 100 years.

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31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Arome going for 38c tomorrow over heathrow

85707159-0FFE-4DDC-9951-7E765E711C11.thumb.png.11d8b183628bc3ad00cabba606006bca.png

Really incredible run there, also amazing to see such a large area of London above 34c!

Also that Arprge for Monday is just as outrageous...37c!

We really are dependent on what cloud cover does past Saturday, though for sure the models are increasingly dialing up the heat now past Saturday as well.

Makes sense given the air basically sits in place and stagnates over the SE

 

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how far north do we think the real heat will get? BBC have the peek of the heat here tomorrow at 31c  dropping to 22c by next Friday, predominantly cloudy through the week with a chance on Wednesday of a storm, Met office have mid to high 20s through till Wednesday, again quite alot of cloud but staying dry.

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16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Really incredible run there, also amazing to see such a large area of London above 34c!

Also that Arprge for Monday is just as outrageous...37c!

We really are dependent on what cloud cover does past Saturday, though for sure the models are increasingly dialing up the heat now past Saturday as well.

Makes sense given the air basically sits in place and stagnates over the SE

 

The way things are going I get the gut feeling the all time record is going to go at some point in this heatwave and what will be the perfect ending - cracking thunderstorms, let’s see if the heat continues to upgrade over the next few days 

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16 minutes ago, clark3r said:

The way things are going I get the gut feeling the all time record is going to go at some point in this heatwave

I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.  I always had the inclination 2020 would be an eye opener (weather wise, obviously not the other rubbish we’ve been dealt!)

Edited by Don
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Why is there such a sudden drop off in temperature as soon as you head north of Birmingham? It's as if there's a straddling front, but there isn't is there?

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7 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Why is there such a sudden drop off in temperature as soon as you head north of Birmingham? It's as if there's a straddling front, but there isn't is there?

Straddling cold front lifting out NE

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4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Why is there such a sudden drop off in temperature as soon as you head north of Birmingham? It's as if there's a straddling front, but there isn't is there?

There is a definate wind shift so there is an airmass boundary (and probably a technical front) that setups throughout Friday. This becomes more obvious overnight:

image.thumb.png.ccbd535bc81ea469c53f4265da746eb8.png

You can see the wind shifts from a S/SE in the SE through to the less hot northerly type flow elsewhere. This feature also generates the cloud that could spill even into the SE for a time.

So in simple langauge, if your SE of that line running through from the wash to Dorset, your in the hot air. If your NW of that line, your in the relatively cooler stuff, though in truth the gradients are pretty slack and instead its the cloud that it generates that is the biggest problem.

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7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I know it has already been discussed but these midnight temperatures are quite something - 
Glorious stuff - very jealous.



 

 

I would rather be where you are than have those overnight temperatures.  Horrible!

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ARPEGE really is very hot on Monday, I'd suggest given the size of the 36c isotherm there'd be a fair chance of a record attempt IF that were to come off...plenty of time to go though and cloud cover could still be an issue.

Also, it has maxes above 34c for 4 days in a row!

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A definate marked NW-SE split coming up. The heat concentrated in the SE, apart from tomorrow which will bring fairly widespread heat through central and eastern parts but not further west, the outlook looks a modest warm spell. A shift in the airstream key reason, a cooler NE flow. Ahead of this in the SE the flow is off a warm continent. Whilst a potential exceptional hot spell will be experienced in the SE, this is not looking like a classic nationwide hot spell.

Edited by damianslaw
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

Has ecm broken down or something?anyway ukv brings cloud cover into england slightly later tomorrow compared to earlier runs!!seems to stream.in from the south from 3pm onwards!!gona be a real hot one tomorrow!!

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