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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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Hellooooooooooooo and good evening from moi☺️

firstly i would just like to thank @Tamara for another exquisite post again and thanks to all the other members too for keeping things ticking along nicely although there hasn't been much to talk about of late  

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC and it's mean signalling a nice spell of weather as move through the second week of Sept 

Fingers crossed...

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The updated clusters now 70/30 on the nw euro upper ridge in the extended and prior to that, the direction of travel is nw euro trough suppression (as alluded to by Tamara) and the sw/ne axis of flow is now the precursor of that 70/30 split in the same ratio 

yes NWS and i hope it comes off as i would be on afters but booked that off

here are this mornings EPS 500's and temp anomalies and as you can see +ve heights into Scandi with upper flow from the SW and above average temps

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.d2840324341fef8f102f00c2dfa2191a.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.9bf03343809cce1ecd46e7e24f3b1ebd.png

ECM mean at day ten from this morning  

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.7c9d986a8d404d2754bde07024f99a78.gif

ECM op 850's at 216 from this evening showing the +16 iso into the S/SE

ECU0-216.thumb.gif.95b922e0a50007206ae4e4eb1fc40799.gif

the 12z gefs ens ain't too shabby as we go into the second week of September as well

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and not forgetting the immediate as we go into this week esp Tuesday with some fine warm usable weather

goes to check out the ECM mean now

catch you in a bit. 

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It's Sunday.. So hallaluayaa Amen so fourth... Here we are staring down the barrel of Autumn and the ECM serves us a treat... And hey presto the mean is non to shabby... Good lord it could be in the words of David Jason... Bloomin perfick. 

Beat ya to it si... Lol 😂🔥

 

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Edited by MATT☀️
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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Cracking mean from day six

have a look at these😍

EDM1-144.thumb.gif.2d96137057cc1185d37b07755aa8b63f.gif

EDM1-168.thumb.gif.5e515a2bbe9d4c22f5b9cb4d18bd96a7.gif

EDM1-192.thumb.gif.a5c8536cea73961065978ec10e1fa6b1.gif

EDM1-216.thumb.gif.d3cf254fee7b3365d7848fb831bac565.gif

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@MATT☀️

just😜

That is a cracking D8/D9 mean. Maybe we aren't done with 30C this year yet? Long shot, but the kind of chart that might do it 🙂

 

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Temps of 24 degrees in Northern England and 28 in London next week . I thought we were meant for strong winds and rain this weekend coming now high pressure noses in from the Azores

 

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Edited by NApplewhite
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image.thumb.png.742aff4983a3a9092d2fdf045c6e4836.pngimage.thumb.png.6e7e67f68de25681e123c94b3ed68004.pngimage.thumb.png.2b82904223dc5234fa7d1487449b3ad4.pngimage.thumb.png.b18673d5119dfdeaa4efaeac9e6d0eb0.png

ECM looking very nice indeed into next week. Some warmer air making a move over the UK. The mid month warm up and change to settled weather corresponding nicely again to a sharp rise in AAM:

image.thumb.png.6d5619953a76e58b5b1f24ab7866ec49.png

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Perhaps one final shot at a plume too. Not that I'm desperate or anything!

2018 had one in April, so I don't doubt a September will one day pull one off with the right set-up

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Amazing warmth from ecm and gfs now joins in as well!!could be a very dry month coming up for much of the uk!!perfect for the school pick ups and drop offs!!rather do it in the heat than rain!!!

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On 05/09/2020 at 08:02, mushymanrob said:

Signs of a positve pressure anomaly developing to our East. At least it should be warmer unsettled, but theres a prospect of a plume or even longer spell of last minute warmth IF pressure develops further to our East.

 

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Well after i posted that a plume did appear, and indeed the ECM in particular suggests high pressure both to our East and building in from the West.

Very nice, however these charts simply do not agree with the ECM, and suggest the GFS transitory plume is more likely. There is no high pressure domination on these charts, but troughing, albeit weak, over the UK. A moderate Westerly upper flow . So personally i wouldnt get hopes up too much for the current ECM solution, whilst it may be proven correct or nearer the final solution then the NOAA charts, the chances are stacked against it as historically in these situations of disagreement, the NOAA are by far nearer the mark.


 

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Some amazing output this morning in terms of summer-like potential..the models seem to be firming up on this which is great to see!:drunk:🔥☀️😜

9C2DC638-CF30-46C3-82AF-CA4E8A098D35.thumb.png.df0d805ec036cefa95aadf62b01a5dc0.pngBDA8A6DB-8CD5-4E70-9CC3-171A9FE6A252.thumb.png.26b8b0c4f07685b78b5a8e0cb14b4fc1.png5EC91B86-214E-4333-88B9-AC3CFB17FFF5.thumb.png.00f566f91b51aa10208fc696af7327f9.pngE1969C8C-CE90-410C-BC96-D24891FF1C35.thumb.png.38bbed24e0fd799154ffdfc4e0068462.png0B8CCD53-703A-41F8-9B9C-9D1798A950B9.thumb.png.17ae8c290599e69ace995d7e550a3957.png7F9577CC-2049-4BFC-9D6D-558817D72024.thumb.png.7bdc37bf4b496b7d09850a7085013ff2.pngEE41C709-16F7-4CC3-BD7C-FD6DDD6DF779.thumb.png.3c97ad3fc18a915519f9daf70229b987.pngB04B65F0-69BF-4CB8-AC13-7AB30F59AD7A.thumb.png.f07592691a998388e850227a2710d28f.png

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Well after i posted that a plume did appear, and indeed the ECM in particular suggests high pressure both to our East and building in from the West.

Very nice, however these charts simply do not agree with the ECM, and suggest the GFS transitory plume is more likely. There is no high pressure domination on these charts, but troughing, albeit weak, over the UK. A moderate Westerly upper flow . So personally i wouldnt get hopes up too much for the current ECM solution, whilst it may be proven correct or nearer the final solution then the NOAA charts, the chances are stacked against it as historically in these situations of disagreement, the NOAA are by far nearer the mark.


 

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I do think the GFS is gradually moving towards the ECM though- if it was the other way round I'd be more concerned. Monday at the very least looks nailed on to be a warm/very warm day across the bulk of the country.

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Please hold off posting, A new thread for Autumn coming up shortly 😊

Ok will be locking this thread now, New thread is here 

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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