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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEM 12z T192, not quite as pronounced with the plume scenario as ICON, but still gets +20 uppers into the SE:

    2A744ADC-5D0C-4D7F-8D34-385F53C6E432.thumb.png.64d27eb08d828fdbab3c60405ba774b9.png896A1436-3823-4721-836C-CC5B0D370545.thumb.png.3cca7eeb0f460a03285e8a58912451cd.png

    South only story on this one though.

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    Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

    *** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

    The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM and JMA not interested in the plume scenario at T192, but a more organised move of high pressure towards our islands, take that too, its better than the current dross, overall good output tonight...

    923A6C6A-CFA9-48B9-B2F8-AD9E2D51A0E1.thumb.gif.ec3eec4ed41dce1f1cd3c9ee25f46330.gif58CD01D7-CB10-4107-BC97-8F02BE86C190.thumb.gif.591f5c2106535d8f6fcabbc1da9b93dc.gif

    Edit, ECM should settle things down!

    DB376E90-C876-4517-8C0C-2E2586D8D941.thumb.gif.ad4e04607f658c7b0ef13fcb152b1fb0.gif

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean T144, T168, T192:

    A2704753-D44E-4DE8-856C-6455B8456B01.thumb.gif.b844803a7ad84e45f637b8b1fbd9580b.gifDA9471B2-B6C1-4E89-AA34-320CD8A07642.thumb.gif.9edd5fc65a852ed0c8840bd23bfaffa6.gif4BD14175-66FA-4D48-BF0E-2492168EA7E9.thumb.gif.ac46d2076d1c94d954373354465533ee.gif

    I think the plume scenario is a dud, but the UK high is looking increasingly more likely as per ECM op run.  I’ll take that, it will be nice to see some September sun!

    No plume in the mighty Navgem either . Looks ok though .This is the final chart .

    562597B8-EF19-43E3-B782-B37CB3DA9A71.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Yep, at D9, 70% of ecm ensembles spill over an Atlantic ridge before a plume gets a foothold. Usually the threshold value for a forecast. Fine weather = yes, hot weather = not likely.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020082812_204.

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    ECM does appear to show a change from low pressure influence to dominant high pressure over six days from Wednesday......

      96A66F4A-C0CA-42BD-9BBC-9D10C0CD7F53.thumb.gif.1f1375edf52545edc06f7ce552e49589.gif

    This would allow a period of settled weather so let’s cross our fingers that it happens!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK


    Here comes high pressure (so says ecm and gem):

    CAEB0977-848C-4955-BDCF-CF93B911EE8F.thumb.png.85c571b544131372bbf810095a0641cc.png815302DC-DE75-40C6-AF0F-F3415DA14DC7.thumb.png.35ee02e85c4bbe47c700ed550b4767a1.png
     

    GFS not keen - though the op is an outlier:

    97CB7F6C-B434-4192-B7B3-1F05151ECEA0.thumb.png.509524b48537eae38367492d1a970eb9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    57 minutes ago, mb018538 said:


    Here comes high pressure (so says ecm and gem):

    CAEB0977-848C-4955-BDCF-CF93B911EE8F.thumb.png.85c571b544131372bbf810095a0641cc.png815302DC-DE75-40C6-AF0F-F3415DA14DC7.thumb.png.35ee02e85c4bbe47c700ed550b4767a1.png
     

    GFS not keen - though the op is an outlier:

    97CB7F6C-B434-4192-B7B3-1F05151ECEA0.thumb.png.509524b48537eae38367492d1a970eb9.png

    Id have thought the GFS is closer to the mark if these charts are right, but i do like the hints of the positive pressure anomaly in the Western Atlantic progressing towards us. IF that continues then a decent settled spell in time for mid month?

     

    hope0.gif

    hope.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Id have thought the GFS is closer to the mark if these charts are right, but i do like the hints of the positive pressure anomaly in the Western Atlantic progressing towards us. IF that continues then a decent settled spell in time for mid month?

     

    hope0.gif

    hope.gif

    11CFA4B2-2130-492D-995C-716B9C799074.thumb.png.55ba056ccdb898024d15f62413244e29.png1E6D0604-2072-4A85-B755-A4A913E771A0.thumb.png.4454ad4c621fa224c3073fa58f60e11b.png
     

    Quite possibly - the ecm op was a big outlier too this morning....just the opposite way to the gfs!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    46 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Clusters 00Z run for D10 - looking good for a UK high - should feel pleasantly warm - outside chance of southerly draw.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020082900_240.

    Yes,looks dry mid term,infact,hardly any rain forecast for Manchester for the next 10 days!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    11CFA4B2-2130-492D-995C-716B9C799074.thumb.png.55ba056ccdb898024d15f62413244e29.png1E6D0604-2072-4A85-B755-A4A913E771A0.thumb.png.4454ad4c621fa224c3073fa58f60e11b.png
     

    Quite possibly - the ecm op was a big outlier too this morning....just the opposite way to the gfs!

    Take the mean of them all and I'd be happy. (Self interest at play here as I have a south coast holiday coming up)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes,looks dry mid term,infact,hardly any rain forecast for Manchester for the next 10 days!!

     

    We certainly need some dry days. Today is just atrocious for August. Just started raining here and feels genuinely cold. These conditions can wait until late October at the very earliest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

    We certainly need some dry days. Today is just atrocious for August. Just started raining here and feels genuinely cold. These conditions can wait until late October at the very earliest.

    I know. What happened to the forecast for a dry sunny weekend?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, East Lancs Rain said:

    I know. What happened to the forecast for a dry sunny weekend?

    Just horrible. Again, another example of the Netweather myth about northerly airflows being dry and clear. Most of the time polar air brings with it cloudy skies and a genuinely unpleasant feel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    Just horrible. Again, another example of the Netweather myth about northerly airflows being dry and clear. Most of the time polar air brings with it cloudy skies and a genuinely unpleasant feel.

    Echo that - been 14c and miserable all day here. Rubbish.

    12z op runs aren’t up to much - none showing high pressure moving in. I think if we’re presented with 2 scenarios at this juncture, we all know what will win.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    Just horrible. Again, another example of the Netweather myth about northerly airflows being dry and clear. Most of the time polar air brings with it cloudy skies and a genuinely unpleasant feel.

    not myth from late Nov to late Jan here, northerlies are dry and clear (wishbone effect) sun too weak for inland convection, rain/sleet/snow showers down west and east coasts, this area poor for snow in direct northerly, setups that create Pembrokeshire Danglers,

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GEM shows severe thunderstorms breaking out across S England on days 8 and 9

    gemeuw-2-204.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM going against the grain of the other 12z suite as far as I can see, and builds in the UK high as per some of the 0z and yesterday’s 12z suite.  Not done and dusted this, by any means:

    anim_npd9.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM going against the grain of the other 12z suite as far as I can see, and builds in the UK high as per some of the 0z and yesterday’s 12z suite.  Not done and dusted this, by any means:

    anim_npd9.gif

     

    Well definitely not, no. One of the most reliable models is consistently showing a build of pressure and a potentially sustained period of warm, settled weather. Another shows an improvement but we can't see beyond 6 days. The NOAA anomaly charts are promising and show a significant positive anomaly close to us or over us during the next 14 days. Meanwhile, Tamara has outlined a series of factors that support not only a much improved spell of weather, but which also undermine some models' attempts at a rapid breakdown. 

    I'm surprised at the lack of activity in here and the lukewarm chatter of a possible warm up towards mid month - from tomorrow it starts to look much better for the South and within a week there is a real prospect of widespread warmth and sunshine...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    Thanks for another informative post Tamara and good luck with the move. Getting out just before smelly stuff really collides with air-moving machine, I envy you the great weather too!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    It's been a difficult two weeks but happy to hear of some calmer warmer weather on the horizon. Thanks all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean 12z here, T168 and T240:

    43FE15CD-225E-460D-A52B-40098670EC9A.thumb.gif.620bf7e4784c6f4167aea9b69b6e5dca.gif92477041-BE5D-4F41-97D5-3205A5E0A854.thumb.gif.27a9f1d95077166c63ecf1848440a595.gif

    This would strongly suggest that the ridge in the Atlantic would build over the UK over the next 10 days, with 1020 over most of UK at day 10.  Clusters will tell us more I would think...

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