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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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ICON 18z T120 v 12z at T126:

E8C62BEF-B521-4E94-A042-5595C4BC7870.thumb.png.f144d6f8b0ee19aeffd54e436253f19d.png5C059866-B6D4-45DA-84A1-2F00163C3D33.thumb.png.af7899e5257f33afadddb6f1e1323c4e.png

The question is why do I care?  Life is unmitigated boredom for people (autistic spectrum disorders) like me, now.  I’m ‘working from home’, although not actually producing anything.  Life is horrible, quite frankly, I wonder how many others feel the same?  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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9 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

This probably doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of verifying but I’m showing it anyway!..actually there a few other GEFS 6z members which flirt with the idea 💡 of early September heat, more so across the near continent..so, you never know!!!😜:shok:🔥

BD951BE2-8D13-4427-A3A2-F85F016D4E4F.thumb.png.18ed2a9a1e2e646804285ee7f5bd0454.png48A0D5F8-2A2D-4D11-9CB5-EC65FCBF1DFC.thumb.png.c8d6f7ccf443e53e623b851a892913d1.png

I hope that verifies! Bring on the heat! I would love an Indian summer! We haven’t had a warm September since 2016.

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2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I remember a similar cool spell in late August 2018 around the bank holiday, maxima was in the low teens in the north of England.

 

Ive just checked the BBC Weather app now and its showing a max of just 12C for my location on Friday and a low of 5/6°C on Sunday morning! Brrrrrr! 🥶
 

 

The 2018 spell wasn't that cool around here- I recall still reaching 16C in the afternoons.

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 v 12z at T126:

E8C62BEF-B521-4E94-A042-5595C4BC7870.thumb.png.f144d6f8b0ee19aeffd54e436253f19d.png5C059866-B6D4-45DA-84A1-2F00163C3D33.thumb.png.af7899e5257f33afadddb6f1e1323c4e.png

The question is why do I care?  Life is unmitigated boredom for people (autistic spectrum disorders) like me, now.  I’m ‘working from home’, although not actually producing anything.  Life is horrible, quite frankly, I wonder how many others feel the same?  

kinda agree but looking forward to tomorrow and this storm. keep your chin up , Mike 

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Theres disagreement again between the GFS/ECM and the NOAA charts for next week... the NOAA show troughing and a negative pressure anomaly over the UK whilst the ops suggest high pressure...

No prizes for guessing who my monies on, lol, although it must be borne in mind that this could be the time when the ops are ahead of the NOAAs?  We shall see.

 

610day.03 no.gif

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I’ve barely commented for the last week or so - this weather pattern holds the least interest for me out of anything we could be dished up at this time of year, so I’m waiting for a change! Still looking better into September, though we may have to wait until at least a week in to see any marked change now. Patience is a virtue.

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Looking at the GEFS 0z mean, longer term into early September there are better signs, at least across southern u k!🙂

B08EB22F-807D-4DA6-A899-3FB1FDA8609C.thumb.png.1282cd8d737d0ef3015b3d89d4ef0047.pngDBC1C523-EAA3-439D-9F14-07508BE66B7D.thumb.png.c2229d1c81b8f728d850296b67ea0f27.png

F394F164-24DD-442A-A989-FF77EEF742BE.png

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3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres disagreement again between the GFS/ECM and the NOAA charts for next week... the NOAA show troughing and a negative pressure anomaly over the UK whilst the ops suggest high pressure...

No prizes for guessing who my monies on, lol, although it must be borne in mind that this could be the time when the ops are ahead of the NOAAs?  We shall see.

 

610day.03 no.gif

GFS 6Z also going down the high pressure route as we move into Sept..

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We've gone from a wet northwesterly to a warm high to a thundery low to a cool high for the first weekend in September. Just shows the uncertainty moving forward and all to play for. It also looks like the next low on Thursday/Friday is going to be a shallower feature than first thought, with emphasis on rain rather than wind. Thankfully, a mostly dry if rather cool BH is on the cards. In winter it would be a classic rain to snow on the northern flank, followed by a frosty high scenario.

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The ECM ensembles haven't abandoned the idea of a high pressure spell as September begins, but, with each run, the clusters get a little messier, and the trough dominance to the NW a little nearer. It's not a great sign for a settled spell in early September, but don't give up yet 🙂

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020082500_216.

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5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres disagreement again between the GFS/ECM and the NOAA charts for next week... the NOAA show troughing and a negative pressure anomaly over the UK whilst the ops suggest high pressure...

No prizes for guessing who my monies on, lol, although it must be borne in mind that this could be the time when the ops are ahead of the NOAAs?  We shall see.

 

610day.03 no.gif

Initially I thought you were comparing the NOAA anomaly charts with the EC/GFS ones, but none of those have high pressure over the UK.

Looking, however, at the anomaly charts, once again they might be moving in the right direction... the EC/GFS charts both broadly have the UK in a neutral zone between positive anomalies to the North and SW and a negative anomaly over Europe, while the 6-10 day NOAA still has variable negative anomalies strung out W-E across the Atlantic. However, the NOAA 8-14 day is significantly more promising, and not just a diluted version of the 6-10 day. Large, positive anomaly spread across the Atlantic, neutrality over the UK, positive anomalies close on all sides.

Importantly, the shape of the EC-GFS charts particularly and even the 8-14 day NOAA chart are pretty consistent with the negatively oriented low diving into Europe shown on the GFS and ECM 00z runs at t192-240, with HP building behind. From that position, a more settled spell is quite possible.

Obviously I was wrong last time...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php..

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Though not an outlier within its own ensembles

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

D630143C-AFB7-454D-8978-18E1D3773A98.thumb.png.f02c17c23cdb92627316410961edf38b.png

I was more referring to the extent of high pressure building in on the 6z - which is still a bit of an outlier compared to the mean....though not a one off.

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Today's GFS 12Z flirting with the idea of a thundery low again for the first weekend in September. Certainly not a settled pattern by warm and humid I'd suspect if this were to come off.

h850t850eu.png

Then an anticyclonic sausage in the far reaches of FI:

h850t850eu.png

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3 hours ago, wellington boot said:

Initially I thought you were comparing the NOAA anomaly charts with the EC/GFS ones, but none of those have high pressure over the UK.

Looking, however, at the anomaly charts, once again they might be moving in the right direction... the EC/GFS charts both broadly have the UK in a neutral zone between positive anomalies to the North and SW and a negative anomaly over Europe, while the 6-10 day NOAA still has variable negative anomalies strung out W-E across the Atlantic. However, the NOAA 8-14 day is significantly more promising, and not just a diluted version of the 6-10 day. Large, positive anomaly spread across the Atlantic, neutrality over the UK, positive anomalies close on all sides.

Importantly, the shape of the EC-GFS charts particularly and even the 8-14 day NOAA chart are pretty consistent with the negatively oriented low diving into Europe shown on the GFS and ECM 00z runs at t192-240, with HP building behind. From that position, a more settled spell is quite possible.

Obviously I was wrong last time...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php..

Yes, indeed there is a positive pressure anomaly to our far west. I was thinking that laura and marco may interact with the troughing over the american mid west which could add energy to it and help promote ridging to its east.. pretty much as the 8-14day now illustrates. 

Hopefully that will progress eastward to give us something pleasant by mid month.

That is speculation though

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7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Today's GFS 12Z flirting with the idea of a thundery low again for the first weekend in September. Certainly not a settled pattern by warm and humid I'd suspect if this were to come off.

h850t850eu.png

Then an anticyclonic sausage in the far reaches of FI:

h850t850eu.png

Eh, that 20C isotherm isn't a million miles away 👀

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Yep that GEM is an absolute cracker... I reckon if we were able to see more of it, the 20c isotherm would probably clip the SE.

@240

gem-0-240.thumb.png.473e6435879731d55c366f24a7c5f036.png   gem-1-240.thumb.png.12708b759ea0393d83d0683ebb4674b9.png

Edited by Zak M
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9DB92B88-6E78-4006-ABCD-E43AED5109BC.thumb.png.de52e09e4211ab5eb7cdefc1abf59bb6.pngE75B0FE6-ABA6-41D6-99DA-9EC900381647.thumb.png.7ab36187b4680780bae2e226039e2248.png

The remnants of hurricane Laura show at day 3 in the plains of the USA, and at day 7 where it has been scooped up by the mid latitude jet and spun up into a deep low pressure. Model troubles ahead.

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I'm quite new to the forum and wondering why we often see low pressure systems breaking off the tip of greenland and heading south east as in the 126hr and 159hr GFS charts below. This seems to have happened lots this summer. Why dont those lows not tend to stay in the higher latitudes from where they arose and ride over the top of any higher pressure.

 

 

GFSOPEU12_126_1.png

GFSOPEU12_159_1.png

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24 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

I'm quite new to the forum and wondering why we often see low pressure systems breaking off the tip of greenland and heading south east as in the 126hr and 159hr GFS charts below. This seems to have happened lots this summer. Why dont those lows not tend to stay in the higher latitudes from where they arose and ride over the top of any higher pressure.

 

 

GFSOPEU12_126_1.png

GFSOPEU12_159_1.png

All to do with global circulations - especially out in the Pacific. Unfortunately for most of this summer, patterns have been very unfavourable for high pressure to build in NW Europe. We had the hot week in early August where patterns adjusted to bring warmth and settled weather, but that has collapsed back into the pattern that dominated June and July. There is a decent chance of an improvement as we head through the first week of September. Weather looking more promising for our neck of the woods.

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