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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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Evening all 🙂

Have stepped away from the models for a few days since the end of the hot spell. I thought we would be seeing signs of a more settled spell by the end of the month and into September.

Let's see what the 12Z output offers us for T+168 which is Saturday August 29th:

gfs-0-168.png?12gens-0-1-168.pnggem-0-168.png?12ECM1-168.GIF?22-0

It's not terribly warm, is it? The four models (GFS Op, GFS Control. GEM and ECM) all have a N'ly flow of some sort with LP to the east and HP to the west so western areas doing better in terms of drier and sunnier conditions while eastern areas plagued with rain or showers off the North Sea.

Moving on, the GFS brings yet another Atlantic LP in while GEM (and perhaps ECM) initiate a surge of HP from the Azores - you'd expect the latter at the time of year to be more likely to be honest. 

Frankly, the GFS output is a horror story for those wanting heat - Control goes zonal into FI while OP lowers pressure in the Med while shifting the Azores HP more north than north east.

Obviously, we have the Joker(s) in the pack known as ex-hurricanes which can disrupt the energy profile considerably - indeed, the energy they introduce tends to buckle the jet back north and bring in the Azores HP but neither Laura nor Marco look to be influential and we'll have to see what comes out of Africa and how it develops in the weeks ahead.

 

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Well like GEM, ECM goes for some kind of settled high pressure pattern towards the end of the run, with some promise.  Here T216, T240:

380CA17C-1BA8-40EF-B8ED-9C319ED8BA2C.thumb.gif.6a5b0f3422e3d22eb481f0d09980a64b.gif887F22B8-F40D-4B6D-9C6C-D7C11A8652AB.thumb.gif.b29fc26c87fffe2408abde6508bdaca6.gif

Too early to say if this is a transitory ridge or something more long lasting, or even if it will happen at all, but I still think there is enough showing in the models to fancy a change to settled at the turn of the month.

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I’d take this on the ECM mean at T192:

21973907-E106-4B0B-9672-E1081FF872F6.thumb.gif.681bcf1f9884e2bd032c2e78cc347126.gif

Last two frames a bit meh, tbh, but that’s outside the reliable for the moment.  Bank holiday weekend not looking so bad, not that there’s anything to do anyway, but you probably wont get quarantined for going to Bournemouth....but you will need a mask in the amusements, I guess 😎.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Do you know what, I think the GFS may be coming on board, here T186 on 18z, v T192 on 12z, or maybe the other way round...

C72150E0-6654-4643-95D7-6A38F0495D2C.thumb.png.c9379ba97dbdc4317bd75b99504fad04.png0ECC2856-1397-4A2D-A3E6-5A639686F4BE.thumb.png.abd04c56deeaec555168f4e4284cedd5.png

Any road, looking better for those wanting a final taste of summer...

 

 

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5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Do not camp in Wales next Tuesday, I repeat DO NOT CAMP IN WALES NEXT TUESDAY, PASS IT ON 💨

72-289UK.GIF?22-12

You may start off sleeping in a tent but you will wake up without it!

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Next week is starting to look absolutely dreadful now.

Big storm system Tuesday into Wednesday, then the potential for another bout of wind and rain at the end of the week. The hot week at the start of the month a distant memory as summer 2020 goes out as it came in - unsettled:

C1EB37BA-769F-4AF2-A2C5-2DCFEF9956C1.thumb.png.dbf1c7237cb4cf21448c576c537f6e0d.png378AC1A4-F4F5-4BED-8FF1-4256C4C424AB.thumb.png.9ee0a9f9c2573470daefab134bcd4282.png

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9 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I’d take this on the ECM mean at T192:

21973907-E106-4B0B-9672-E1081FF872F6.thumb.gif.681bcf1f9884e2bd032c2e78cc347126.gif

Last two frames a bit meh, tbh, but that’s outside the reliable for the moment.  Bank holiday weekend not looking so bad, not that there’s anything to do anyway, but you probably wont get quarantined for going to Bournemouth....but you will need a mask in the amusements, I guess 😎.

Last time I looked, the amusements were all closed anyway.

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24 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Last time I looked, the amusements were all closed anyway.

yep just  seen a map  winds of  over  75  mph  expected    over  wales 

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An interesting GFS 00Z, this morning, even if it's of a less-than-summery complexion -- and the North Atlantic temperature gradient will only intensify, with time:🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And there's no sign of an Indian Summer the the GEFS 00Z ensembles, either; but, if a series of intense Atlantic depressions is you thing, this is for you!  :oldlaugh:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png  

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

 

 

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Anyone know what the coldest August bank holiday record is?!  This is GFS, and I note ECM is more generous if still cool.

 

Coldest.PNG

Edited by jamesthemonkeh
Not sure I added the correct temperature chart first.
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Ok guys I’m not gonna lie, the odds are NOT in our favour for the majority who crave a return of summery conditions BUT here and there we see crumbs of comfort from the GEFS 0z..as we know, there’s a much bigger picture than the GEFS portrays but, call me crazy, I still have hopes, indeed high hopes for early September for at least the southern half / third of the u k to catch a break from this early taste of autumn!😜

F1CBC8F7-207E-41AE-BA0F-09FEC646E27B.thumb.png.b9162ce0edf1c446672b80cc00e134b8.pngEE7A40B7-C957-4DCE-9231-692E5930FEEC.thumb.png.524962dfdba98ea6e7ca9ee280f91ad0.png4E8E688C-6C3D-469F-A1FB-E8DFBBA95A8D.thumb.png.2e15c35ab1644508ad90192d4573ca54.pngFB855BC5-FF07-4A84-8574-75FE5EBBC026.thumb.png.c767277de6b0bf20bc949ce0e94f75b4.png

EA7094A7-C0CD-424C-BC42-86379A237CA1.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Looks like autumn is here, I doubt we will get temps above 25 this year now. Prob lots of wind and rain to look forward to. It’s the wind I hate the most, wouldn’t mind rain and no wind, 

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