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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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Modelling in near term needs to watched carefully, ECM, UKMO, ARPEGE all produced small mesoscale features running up the between Cornwall and Ireland producing anything from 70-110mph gusts of wind. GFS doesn't develop this system however and runs an open wave up the Irish sea.

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I think the NOAA charts are at least somewhat promising. Still showing low pressure over us, but showing signs of migration to NE, plus intensity waning, plus high pressure moving closer day by day.

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2 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Not much to get excited about currently, and good lord it's so quite in here. But have a little patience folks.. Last night's EC46 is looking much more positive come Bank Holiday weekend! High pressure builds in nicely around this time, and guess what, this theme Continues into September.. Looks pretty good. ☀️

As long as we do not see a repeat of that ghastly heat last week, although a bit late for that now

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As alluded to earlier, convective areas are starting to be forecast to move as we head out of August into September. With AAM potentially rising again, we could potentially see a more settled spell of weather as we turn the page into September. Keep an eye out folks.

image.thumb.png.3b5603266ac68e6a7ed484dff65ed36b.png
 

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I have a feeling September will resume where May left off - Warm and dry, perhaps another shot at some heat and thunder before the sun crosses into the Southern Hemisphere on 21st.  

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1 hour ago, wellington boot said:

I think the NOAA charts are at least somewhat promising. Still showing low pressure over us, but showing signs of migration to NE, plus intensity waning, plus high pressure moving closer day by day.

Well on the 8-14 day chart there is a very slight suggestion of ridging starting to build in the mid Atlantic, but there is quite a moderate upper flow, so unless that slight ridging builds, theres only transient ridging upwind imho. Ive been watching these all summer and only the last possibility actually grew into a spell of high pressure, that we enjoyed recently, several others failed to build. Maybe IF AAM rises it may lead to another stronger positive pressure build..
 

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41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:


As alluded to earlier, convective areas are starting to be forecast to move as we head out of August into September. With AAM potentially rising again, we could potentially see a more settled spell of weather as we turn the page into September. Keep an eye out folks.

image.thumb.png.3b5603266ac68e6a7ed484dff65ed36b.png
 

I hate to say it I don’t think the heat is done with us yet 😢

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52 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

That, to me, would be the best possible scenario, MB: a September reminiscent of 1973 -- with foggy mornings and 26-27C, sunny afternoons...:oldgood:

Nothing annoys me more than cold (but nae cold enough for snow) dank autumnal shi'ite!😱

Sounds perfect 👍🏻 Dank, autumnal shi’te can wait 

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1906 anyone? That had a crazy hot spell at the end of August / start of September!

Baby steps at the moment, but always nice to have some hope on the horizon.

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Mmm no words on the evening model runs, because well they are showing a preety poor late August outlook, GFS decidedly poor with trough anchored into the UK, southerly tracking jet, cool with it.

Often see such conditions in late August and a switch to something much more settled and warmer when the schools go back!

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We have the opportunity for  a little chink of good weather to my eyes on both the Ecm and Navgem with regards to settled weather not sustained yet but hopefully this comes a little later. It’s not been that bad the past 2 days here actually so looking forward to a final settled spell before the hunt for cold begins in earnest in mid to late October for me anyway . 

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

We have the opportunity for  a little chink

Oh come on now, Mark... that's far too racist, for 2020!:oldgrin: Sorry mate, I couldn't help it!:oops:

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Oh come on now, Mark... that's far too racist, for 2020!:oldgrin: Sorry mate, I couldn't help it!:oops:

Oh No 🤦🏼‍♂️ I’m going to reported now , TBF I thought it might have happened when I posted the Navgem consistently recently but thats acceptable 😀🌞😉

Edited by Mark wheeler
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3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh No 🤦🏼‍♂️ I’m going to reported now , TBF I thought it might have happened when I posted the Navgem consistently recently but that acceptable 😀🌞😉

I'm sorry, Mark, but I've just watched The Legend of Bruce Lee on Netflix (a truly fantastic 50-part series!) that I think I'll watch again... And, once I've discovered what that's got to do with the weather, I'll let you know. But, just to be on 'the safe side' there was a storm in Hong Kong!:oldgood:

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Evening all!

As the medium term is dross, I’m focussing on T240 today.  Here’s the ECM, GEM, GFS and the JMA (T192):

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Tentative signs on ECM and GEM that a ridge may push across the UK at day 10, meanwhile the other two are not horrendous, anyway.  If predictions by many including me are for a settled September, worth noting the SST anomaly, here:

D39A6AA6-CBF6-4D8E-AD4A-F1A531E49FDB.thumb.png.3f126129d92616f1faf96e77cbbdb87c.png

Very warm all around the UK.  If settled conditions prevail early September, it will be an extension of summer, I think....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Pub run starting to latch on to things, T240

FE405AE0-AF66-4102-A19C-A2AE087B2DEE.thumb.png.54c95aff334f1a32ad677b686c887c97.png

T288:

7266A41C-10B7-470C-9FB3-7CF8655F491C.thumb.png.824f7bcaec283f1c7f0d837ad52d7d1c.png

Pressure not that high on the latter chart, but it is an evolution we want to see, some kind of Azores, continent link up.  I think we will be seeing more of this sort of run as we approach September...we will see...

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